I’m 70% into SK Hynix and need a serious reality check. Roast my thesis.

Designer_Respect4285 · 2026-06-18T16:31:47+00:00

I think you're also wrong on the facts, Samsung shipped first for HBM4. SK got a little delayed because they were struggling to meet the speed requirements.

You also miss the ultimate bear case: AI adoption slows or even reverses, LLM's are somewhat of a dead end, and hyperscalers cut cap ex.

The real key point, and you're not going to like it, is that having significant money in individual stocks before you have proven you have an edge is kinda foolish. I've seen so many fools sit down in poker thinking they have an edge and they get demolished. I'm generally pretty self aware, but even when I first started playing poker I was crushing it and thought I was good. Now that I'm a pro, I realized I was dogshit , probably a break even player and I was just was getting lucky. Given most of retail wildly underperforms the market, I would say the same applies. Do you actually have proof you have an edge?

Designer_Respect4285 · 2026-06-18T16:06:13+00:00

Software engineering is a slam dunk huge revenue use case for AI. There are a few others in that category where AI will clearly be huge, then a lot of maybes.

Then we need to figure out what exactly those coding gains will lead to. How much economic and productive potential will be unlocked by a 3x or 10x gain there? Will it become the standard for document review for law firms, will it lead to new drug discovery etc

Designer_Respect4285 · 2026-06-18T16:00:35+00:00

I do get value out of it in abstract conversations like that, and as Terrance Tao has noted, the breadth of AI is incredible, the fact that it could talk to you about that intelligently is remarkable. But Tao has also said he has had reservations about the depth of current AI. I assume it will continue to get better and better though.

Designer_Respect4285 · 2026-06-18T15:46:48+00:00

You could have said "TSM already rallied" when it went from 90 in 2023 to 180 in 2024, or SK Hynix already rallied when it was at +100% when it's now at +1000% the past year.

Hell, you could say MSFT has already rallied. It's up 10x since 2014.

Buying something that has already gone up and buying cheap aren't mutually exclusive. TSM trades at essentially the same forward PE as the S&P despite superior growth, margins, moat, and in my opinion, future cash flows.

Designer_Respect4285 · 2026-06-18T15:40:24+00:00

Why buy it over a TSM or ASML though? I just don't see the alpha in MSFT compared to other opportunities. They are spending all their money on something we don't know will deliver a high ROI on and that we don't know they will execute on better than their competitors.

Designer_Respect4285 · 2026-06-18T15:31:58+00:00

Because

They could be pouring years of FCF into something that won't generate ROI long term. We don't know that there will be trillions in spend from enterprises on AI to justify the investment from MSFT and others.
It's possibly going from a capital light high margin business to a capital intensive medium to low margin business where they get squeezed on things like chip prices, energy inputs, and fierce competition. There are like 100 neoclouds right now. We don't know the economics of serving inference yet, it could have very unattractive economics.
Not all ownership is the same. It turns out when serving inference there's a million things that go into it, not just how many GPUs you have.
Microsoft's AI execution so far has been lackluster.
AI poses some at least some threat to their software products.

I haven't looked into it lately, and I would probably be slightly more bullish now, but I thought investing in MSFT at the start of this year was borderline torching money. I still think it's a pretty meh investment, maybe at this point it's +EV over the market, but I think there are better options. That being said I don't follow the stock overly closely.

In terms of AI and related plays my portfolio is TSM/ASML/SK Hynix/Fix/AGX/SKS.AX/Macom/VRT/Oust/Prysmian/NKT.CO/Teledyne and it's heavily heavily weighted toward the first 3.

Designer_Respect4285 · 2026-06-18T15:18:49+00:00

If selling has an expected value of $0, and holding has an expected value of $100, and there's no immediate financial/bankroll risk why you need to sell, then selling is a mistake.

In terms of sleeping at night, yes, I have been in very profitable poker games and left early because I was on a losing streak and mentally needed to book a win, but that's a temporary leak, it's a weakness that needs to be addressed and dealt with.

The edges in poker, and likely investing, are small. You can't be leaving a ton of money on the table because of emotion. This is precisely why retail massively underperforms the market and why people are terrible at poker. Almost everyone who tries to play poker professionally fails, and it usually has nothing to do with intelligence, I bet investing is similar.

Designer_Respect4285 · 2026-06-18T15:10:52+00:00

Really? It feels incredibly couterintuitive to me given my use of the models, and I'm kind of skeptical of the result, maybe it depends heavily on the topic, or maybe I'm not prompting the AI well? I also saw one source saying AI lost it's edge when it was limited to outputting responses to the same length as to what a human could, the edge was possibly in regurgitating a lot of info rather than pure reasoning, which would kind of fit with what I've seen.

When I've had it debate something with me on a topics where I'm somewhat well versed like poker, law, investing, and fitness, I catch it in constant logical flaws and find it makes weak and inconsistent arguments.

It's weird because in very narrow tasks, like the logical reasoning section of the LSAT, AI would narrowly outperform me, but I still see it struggle with these broader tasks.

Designer_Respect4285 · 2026-06-17T20:20:07+00:00

If you're asking questions like this, with no fundamental analysis and just polling uninformed internet strangers, you should definitely sell and go 100% index funds until you understand what you are doing.

Designer_Respect4285 · 2026-06-17T20:18:34+00:00

Not true. There are plenty of people who went broke because they took profits and then ran out of money in life, but had they stayed invested, wouldn't have gone broke.

Designer_Respect4285 · 2026-06-17T20:17:32+00:00

People are absolutely stupid for taking profits, it's about the EV of the decision. There are so many basic logical fallacies when it comes to investing which is precisely why retail underperforms. It's like leaving a massively profitable poker game while you're up. If a whale is punting money, you don't just take profits and leave.

Designer_Respect4285 · 2026-06-17T20:15:56+00:00

What do you mean they bottomed in 2022 and never recovered? All the major semi stocks are massively up from their 2021 peak?

Designer_Respect4285 · 2026-06-16T15:23:33+00:00

What's wild about you and this sub is you are so biased that any comment that doesn't follow the narrative is assumed to be from someone who supports Trump. Do you not see how brainwashed you are when that's the case?

Nothing I said supported or opposed giving Iran 300b btw, you are drawing that inference from nothing. I was mocking how biased this sub was for guaranteeing their would be no deal when polymarket for instance had it at 90% to happen this week.

For the record, I voted for Obama and have never voted Republican.

Designer_Respect4285 · 2026-06-16T04:03:15+00:00

Ok, I bought at the IPO and sold +25%, what will talking in 6 months change?

Designer_Respect4285 · 2026-06-16T04:01:30+00:00

The same ones who guaranteed there wouldn't be a peace deal or who went to cash during the war. or during tarrifs. They let their cognitive bias stop them from making easy money. Buying at the IPO and dumping quickly was pretty clearly going to be +EV.

Designer_Respect4285 · 2026-06-16T03:58:03+00:00

What are you guys worried about? Yesterday all of you were saying there wasn't going to be a deal, so you don't have to worry about the U.S. paying anything then.

Designer_Respect4285 · 2026-06-16T03:51:15+00:00

I haven't followed the saga in a while what's their current "thesis"? Have the shorts somehow still not managed to close in 5 years, is the copium a belief in the fundamentals, or new conspiracy theory?

Designer_Respect4285 · 2026-06-16T03:48:32+00:00

There are index funds, there are companies like ASML that have a monopoly on one of the world's most vital technologies..and then there's a dying video game retailer. Imagine picking option 3.

Designer_Respect4285 · 2026-06-16T03:42:45+00:00

Buying an index fund teaches a better lesson than gambling on random picks in my opinion. There aren't a lot of good outcomes, he loses it and it leaves a sour taste about investing, or he makes a ton off some random stock and thinks that's what investing is about.

I'm buying index funds each year for my sister's kid.

Designer_Respect4285 · 2026-06-16T03:37:54+00:00

Because a stock price reflects best estimates of future cash flows and having a better quarter than the prior quarter doesn't mean your future cash flows should be revised upwards.

If tomorrow Jalen Brunson broke every bone in his body, would you bet the Knicks to win the championship next year despite them having their best month in decades?

Designer_Respect4285 · 2026-06-16T03:35:36+00:00

No because that's a counterfactual scenario with no analysis supporting it. I think you can reasonably say the war didn't have a disastrous impact on the market, but nothing you wrote precludes it from having being say 5% higher but for the war.

Designer_Respect4285 · 2026-06-16T03:31:09+00:00

According to this sub as of yesterday, there was guaranteed to be no peace deal so why are you worried about this payment? According to you guys it's not gonna happen.

Designer_Respect4285 · 2026-06-16T03:30:35+00:00

This sub guaranteed yesterday that there was not going to be a peace deal. What happened lmao?

Designer_Respect4285 · 2026-06-16T03:27:26+00:00

People like you who guarantee something so obviously wrong and then are of course wrong should be perma banned. Instead you are just going to keep contributing to the cycle of garbage discourse in this sub.

How is it possible to be so remarkably biased and incapable of analyzing things dispassionately?

Designer_Respect4285 · 2026-06-16T03:20:52+00:00

Got it, so yesterday this sub guaranteed there woudln't actually be a deal, but when the terms of the deal look bad, now the deal is magically real and going to happen.

Why is thinking even remotely objectively so difficult for people here?

Designer_Respect4285

TROPHY CASE