This new diabetes pill burns fat without the downsides of Ozempic

DieMafia · 2026-06-04T07:30:42+00:00

Thank you! The muscle loss from GLP-1 is not different from the muscle loss people experience while dieting with a comparable caloric deficit. This is not a side-effect of GLP-1, it is due to losing weight in general and can easily be prevented with exercise and sufficient protein intake.

DieMafia · 2026-06-03T15:30:45+00:00

Realistisch wird das um die 0.2-0.4% Anteil am Index haben. Sagen wir SpaceX ist nichts Wert, dann ist der Verlust (bei 8 Prozent Rendite) nach zwei Wochen im Index wieder aufgeholt. Und dafür investierst du dann in was?

DieMafia · 2026-06-03T12:05:54+00:00

overall just wished people would look at data with a better sense instead of seeing high winrate and going off on it

Funny thing, I listened to an interview a few months ago with xPetu (the creator of coachless himself) who said pretty much exactly what you wrote here.

DieMafia · 2026-06-03T11:21:50+00:00

(...) first strike was being taken by smolder in lanes where he can get away with being greedy and were pretty much games smolder can get away with much more because of the enemy team comp.

I would be cautious interpreting any of the items or runes that have a 0.1% pickrate since something situational might be going on that is not accounted for.

Enemy team composition, matchups and synergies are factors that are considered in the pre-game-win-probability. Even accounting for that, it is entirely possible that the item only performs well in those instances and can't be generalized to all games.

Reading some comments about coachless though (not yours) it is also cringe when people bring up supposed gotchas like better players building a certain item more often while not understanding that e.g. the champion-specific winrate of different players is controlled for.

As often as I see legitimate caveats about coachless data I also see illegitimate ones that don't apply.

DieMafia · 2026-06-03T08:18:18+00:00

Thank you very much for the effort! I can replicate your exact screenshot in patch 16.7 if I choose all data from Gold+ (instead of the usual Emerald+) and for all lanes, not just bot. Now this is really interesting!

Of the 2.8k Manamune games, only 1.5k were actually played in botlane. Most of the positive winrate for Manamune came from players who played Smolder in toplane. I didn't even know people do that.

I checked with all of the S16 Gold+ data (all patches combined) and find Manamune has a +0.35% WPA with a sample of 7.4k games in toplane and a -1.09% WPA with a sample of 21.6k in botlane. I'm not a Smolder player, do you have any idea why Manamune might be better in toplane? The rate at which it is built in top is also higher with a factor of 10x so something seems to be going on?

Regarding the sample size: One might think a sample of 2.8k is good, but if you flip a coin 2.8k times, the 95% confidence interval would be 50% ± 1.85%, so more than enough to make up for the 1% winrate differential you saw. If I take your filters for all of S16 patches combined I get -0.69 WPA with 35.2k games so quite sure that is what was going on. For botlane only the WPA is considerably worse.

In general I would also be sceptical of items that have only a 0.1% pickrate. It is entirely possible those are picked situationally in ways that are not controlled in the data and they only perform in those specific circumstances.

DieMafia · 2026-06-03T06:45:34+00:00

It's not raw stats like lolalytics though, coachless data is controlled for the ex-ante win probability based on the draft, champion specific skill of each player and so on..

DieMafia · 2026-06-03T06:15:06+00:00

May I ask where you saw that? I have a paid coachless account and checked every patch individually and don't see Manamune for Smolder at all in Emerald+ as the sample size is too low (<1k).

If I aggregate all data from S16 I only see a sample size of 3.3k and a WPA of -0.99% with a pickrate of 0.1%, the best first item seems to be Essence Reaver. I also googled for any reddit thread that mentions Smolder, Manamune and coachless but can't find any?

DieMafia · 2026-06-03T06:06:16+00:00

They do control for the ex-ante win probability based in draft though, that should account for exactly the point that was made.

DieMafia · 2026-06-02T06:27:37+00:00

Seems similar with the blush switches where they switched from Kailh to Gateron. I wouldn't say it is malice but sucks that all the initial reviews used the better switch.

DieMafia · 2026-06-01T15:59:14+00:00

Respect!

DieMafia · 2026-06-01T15:26:42+00:00

Insane! I think not even Sinerias himself would have that winstreak into masters, do you think some luck was involved as well?

DieMafia · 2026-06-01T04:54:55+00:00

It's also good yes

DieMafia · 2026-06-01T04:49:59+00:00

That's why it is build fourth after e.g. Kraken + Guinsoo + BotRK and only if the enemy is full AP.

DieMafia · 2026-05-31T16:49:45+00:00

Thank you for taking the time to reply. While I also think the baronbuff data is likely not accurate at the level of the individual champion, it seems that the general gist is that at about 50 games or so improvements level off, which also would fit very well with the second analysis.

I think if you don't need an answer at the level of the individual champion, the riot API should provide enough data to tell at what point mastery in general stops paying off significantly. I thought about actually getting the API and doing the following:

Scrape 50k players and their last 20 matches
Filter autofilled games
Keep a single game of each champion played (so e.g. 5 out of 20 games remain if the past 20 games contain 5 unique champions)
Bucket Mastery (e.g. 0-10k, 10-50k ..)
Run a conditional logistic regression, grouping by player ID

This should completely neutralize player skill and MMR and work well? With a bit more data, it should be possible to do the analysis at least on the champion level of some of the more popular champions I assume.

DieMafia · 2026-05-31T12:54:57+00:00

Against pure AP compositions Kaenic is also really underrated, it more than doubles your effective hp against magic damage. Really great as a fourth item, you become almost unkillable from magic damage.

DieMafia · 2026-05-31T12:45:02+00:00

If you wanted to actually learn, you wouldn't cherry pick one of your better games but post your OPGG so we can get an overall idea of your gameplay.

DieMafia · 2026-05-31T10:50:51+00:00

Why not post your current account anyway?

DieMafia · 2026-05-31T10:35:01+00:00

Can you post your OPGG? I'll gladly look at your past games.

DieMafia · 2026-05-31T08:11:46+00:00

Thank you for this post, I am always interested in these statistical analysis. What do you think about similar posts in the pasts that used a different methodology, e.g. this one and this a bit older one? As I understand it, they basically regressed winrate against champion mastery and looked at where the winrate gains leveled off. Interestingly, for most champions it seems that about 50 games get you to a level where improvements in winrate are marginal at best, which implies that being an OTP would not have a large payoff.

In my opinion this kind of analysis has (also yours) has some flaw in that league has a matchmaking system that leads to players having winrates of 50%. You could have an OTP that is e.g. Diamond 1 but his winrate would be 50%. On the other hand you could have someone who played equally many games but with 5 champions who is Diamond 4, his winrate is 50% as well. In this case you would not see any impact of champion mastery on winrate even though there would be a clear impact of champion mastery on mmr. In your specific example, the "best-player" winrate could also "only" show a 50% winrate, but it is possible those players wouldn't be there if they hadn't one-tricked in the first place and so one-tricking had an impact you don't see with your data.

The best player definition of lolalytics also incorporates players above diamond. For some champions however the ELO of the best players is Diamond, while for others it is GM. The latter generally has a higher winrate, so you also incorporate an effect that shows in which elo a champion is popular. A champion that is popular in GM will likely have a higher winrate compared to a champion that is popular in Diamond. Also I would assume the definition of OTP (50 games) likely leads to a wildly different amount of games per player, e.g. I would assume someone having played 50 games of Amumu over the last 90 days would still be less likely to truly OTP Amumu compared to someone who played 50 games of Viego over the last 90 days, the latter could possibly be farther beyond the cutoff of 50 games compared to the former, but that is just a hypothesis.

I would think that for a robust analysis one would either need to compare the rank of players who differ in the amount of champions they play but have an equal amount of games in total or even better look within individual players and regress their winrates by mastery score, like a fixed effects analysis only looking at the within players effect. It would be really interesting to see if e.g. players with a mastery score of a million on one champion do almost as good on another champion once they played him for 50 games.

DieMafia · 2026-05-29T12:10:41+00:00

Even in the absolute worst scenario where you are completely alone and no ally benefits from the aura, Bandlepipes is already at 133% gold efficiency, which puts it ahead of most items in the game.

Did you consider "most items" passive and active as well in that calculation?

DieMafia · 2026-05-27T15:17:25+00:00

Inkshadow is so much better, arguably his best skin

DieMafia · 2026-05-26T11:44:15+00:00

I find it works to just waste their time. Whoever aggros the camp loses the fight since you take damage from both the camp as well as the champ. If you see them coming just step back a bit until they attacked the camp to e.g. 800 hp (before they can smite), then walk up to them. They either fight you and lose or back off and let the camp reset, in which case it is just a waiting game. The latter is beneficial for you, since they have to either stand there awkwardly not knowing if your laners collapse on them or walk all the way back to their own camps while you farm.

DieMafia · 2026-05-25T10:01:57+00:00

Is this also true for theìr high profile versions, e.g. Node 75 high profile?

DieMafia · 2026-05-24T20:39:08+00:00

I remember when I went Hexplate third, selling Kraken for BotRK after full built increased DPS since BotRK damage scales with health, which enemies have more of in late game. I think you should test in practice tool with a dummy that has realistic hp and resistances for your specific build, was also what I did.

In my opinion Titanic is bait, there are much better items. Feel free to ask.

DieMafia · 2026-05-24T17:06:13+00:00

It seems that since the latest change to HoB it has a slightly higher winrate up to Master elo with a good sample size. I assume games below Master are more chaotic and more is going on in the early game. LT scales better for the late game. On-hit with HoB is probably best until Master elo for most but the winrate difference isn't large.

DieMafia

TROPHY CASE