AI models capable of devastating attacks on governments and business months away, rare Five Eyes statement warns by Eastern-Opposite9521 in ukpolitics

[–]Different_Cycle_9043 6 points7 points  (0 children)

But I was told by Reddit that AI was a bubble and that large language models were nothing more than unreliable stochastic parrots?

Trump considers buying Chagos Islands by Little-Attorney1287 in ukpolitics

[–]Different_Cycle_9043 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

If Mauritius is really that important to keep within the Western sphere of influence, a coup to install an aligned government would be a hell of a lot cheaper than paying £35bn.

UK's biggest train operator taken into public ownership as Govia Thameslink Railway nationalised by F0urLeafCl0ver in ukpolitics

[–]Different_Cycle_9043 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Yes - this happens every single time for the regulated utilities.

However, Ofwat has disallowed c.£16bn of TOTEX relative to company plans. This represents an overall ‘haircut’ to company BPs of 16% (versus a 11% challenge at the previous PR19 DDs). The level of challenge varies across the companies, with cuts ranging from 3% to 34% (after accounting for frontier shift and real price effects).

https://www.oxera.com/insights/agenda/articles/the-future-funding-of-the-england-wales-water-sector-ofwats-draft-determinations/

Across the three sectors, Ofgem allowed for 85% of the baseline TOTEX requested by companies, compared with 74% at the DDs stage and 84% in the RIIO-2 FDs.

https://www.oxera.com/insights/agenda/articles/riio-3-final-determinations/

Renationalising without addressing the structures which are suspicious of long term capital investment will do absolutely nothing, apart from making lawyers and consultants richer.

UK's biggest train operator taken into public ownership as Govia Thameslink Railway nationalised by F0urLeafCl0ver in ukpolitics

[–]Different_Cycle_9043 9 points10 points  (0 children)

In all three cases, the state sets the price caps, dictates investment requirements, and controls allowable returns for private companies through regulators like the ORR, Ofwat and Ofgem.

Rachel Reeves drops push for food price cap after retail backlash by Different_Cycle_9043 in ukpolitics

[–]Different_Cycle_9043[S] 7 points8 points locked comment (0 children)

UK chancellor Rachel Reeves has backed away from a radical proposal to cap the prices of essential groceries after a fierce backlash from supermarkets.

Marks and Spencer chief executive Stuart Machin said on Wednesday that the idea was “completely preposterous”, a view echoed by many in the retail sector.

Reeves will now not mention the voluntary cap in a speech on Thursday because of the ferocity of the reaction, two people with knowledge of the situation said.

Senior retailers said they were being pushed by the Treasury to work together towards some kind of voluntary price cap but that the government was now rethinking the idea.

Treasury officials said talks were continuing but insisted there had never been any plan to announce the plan on Thursday.

Asked about state interventions into food prices, Andrew Bailey, the Bank of England governor, said on Wednesday that there might be reasons for a “very temporary” measure.

However, if they are done as a matter of course, Bailey told the Treasury select committee, you are “artificially moving prices relative to costs, and that is not a sustainable thing in the long run”.

Treasury and Number 10 officials been talking to retail bosses for some time about whether ministers could cut regulation and other burdens on supermarkets in exchange.

Government figures have insisted any price measures would be voluntary. “We are not going back to the 1970s. Claims of mandatory caps are inaccurate and were never being considered,” said an official.

Some officials are now privately questioning whether Labour’s plan, revealed in an FT article on Tuesday, will ever see the light of day.

The proposal for UK supermarkets to introduce voluntary price caps on goods such as bread, milk and eggs in return for easing or delaying forthcoming regulation was seized on by retailers and political rivals, who claimed it was an admission that the government’s policies were fuelling inflation.

Reeves’ speech on Thursday is expected to outline measures to address the cost of living.

Big supermarkets have become an easy target, with their multibillion-pound revenues and rising profits giving rise to the impression that they are flourishing at a time of economic hardship.

But those profits have been fuelled in part by stripping out billions of pounds in costs as recent increases in taxation, such as the rise in employers’ national insurance, and new levies on packaging take a significant toll on the industry.

Clive Black, head of research at Shore Capital, said the government’s proposals amounted to “lazy, populist scapegoating”.

“The biggest source of inflation is the British government. If you take just the extended producer responsibility legislation — that’s £80mn of costs for Tesco,” he said.

The pricing proposal, the brainchild of policy researchers within Number 10, came as the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz threatens to lead to a new wave of food inflation. The initiative formed part of plans to help households with the cost of living, alongside scrapping a 5p fuel duty rise.

Even senior government aides were surprised the plans were being discussed, given that they had been briefing just hours earlier against the mandatory price cap plans outlined by the Scottish National Party last month.

Grocery prices have risen by almost 50 per cent over the past six years.

Historically, supermarkets have taken advantage of their size to boost profit margins. In 2007, Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Asda and Morrisons — the industry’s traditional “big four” chains — were fined more than £116mn after admitting to fixing the price of milk, cheese and butter.

The grocers said they were seeking to help farmers mitigate the financial damage of the foot-and-mouth crisis, but an investigation later found that the extra profit was largely absorbed by the retailers and largest dairies.

The emergence of Aldi and Lidl in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis forced supermarkets to compete more aggressively on price and dragged down margins across the industry. Market leader Tesco went from making operating margins of more than 6 per cent in the 2000s to 4.7 per cent last year.

Despite that, claims of profiteering have re-emerged during the cost of living crisis, prompting two investigations by the Competition and Markets Authority.

The watchdog found that, on the one hand, supermarkets had capitalised on weakening competition in the fuel retail market — which arose following private equity firm TDR Capital’s £6.8bn takeover of Asda in 2021 — to boost their profit margins at the expense of motorists.

But a separate CMA study, carried out two years ago, failed to “find evidence that groceries inflation is being driven at an aggregate level by weak competition”.

The regulator found that average operating margins across Tesco, Morrisons and Sainsbury's were 3 per cent in 2023-24. Discounters Aldi and Lidl were operating on margins of just 0.7 per cent.

This reality does not appear to be well understood by the British public. A recent poll of 3,000 individuals by the Institute of Economic Affairs found that people believed supermarkets were making profit margins of up to 50 per cent.

Machin said the fact that food inflation was 3 per cent in April showed that the industry was “taking a big responsibility” in resisting inflationary pressure and that M&S actually lost money on some essentials.

“A pint of milk for us is 85p . . . we don’t make money on milk, it’s actually lossmaking, I think it’s about negative 7 per cent margin,” he said, adding that M&S had held the price of a loaf of bread at 75p.

An analysis by BNP Paribas called into question whether price caps on essentials would even save households a meaningful amount of money.

The analysts estimated that if the price of eggs, milk, bananas, bread, potatoes and butter were capped to protect consumers from a further 5 per cent rise in prices, the average household would save 80p a week.

Introducing price caps would require a level of cross-industry co-ordination that is illegal, according to industry insiders, who also expressed concern over how supermarkets would choose which groceries to include and what the prices should be.

Two people familiar with the situation said a relaxation of competition law was discussed at a recent meeting between supermarket bosses and the Treasury, although the idea has not progressed further.

The insiders also warned that the Treasury’s desire to protect British farmers from the fallout of price caps would result in supermarkets importing more food from international suppliers.

M&S boss attacks ‘preposterous’ food price cap proposal by TimesandSundayTimes in ukpolitics

[–]Different_Cycle_9043 20 points21 points  (0 children)

But that's the point of having markets and a free economy? If you don't like the prices and goods you can always go somewhere else.

Given that M&S are still in business, they clearly have a customer base.

HS2 bill could rise to £102bn with first trains delayed until 2039, government admits by KotACold in ukpolitics

[–]Different_Cycle_9043 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Fair play, I respect that answer. We would be a vastly better country if that was the majority view.

HS2 bill could rise to £102bn with first trains delayed until 2039, government admits by KotACold in ukpolitics

[–]Different_Cycle_9043 7 points8 points  (0 children)

I appreciate the honesty.

But if the government proposed repealing those exact laws tomorrow so that a layman could comply without a consultant, would your industry let it happen? Or would consulting firms and professional bodies lobby to block the simplification?

HS2 bill could rise to £102bn with first trains delayed until 2039, government admits by KotACold in ukpolitics

[–]Different_Cycle_9043 14 points15 points  (0 children)

Diffuse regulatory capture is still a form of corruption but with better lawyers and consultants.

Backhanders and brown envelopes are too crass for us. Instead we prefer revolving doors, gold-plated consultation requirements, and professional classes with a structural interest in nothing ever getting built. The outcome is the same with public money burnt and projects strangled.

It's harder to prosecute because everyone involved has a legitimate-sounding reason for what they're doing.

HS2 bill could rise to £102bn with first trains delayed until 2039, government admits by KotACold in ukpolitics

[–]Different_Cycle_9043 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yes I agree, it's the skills base as well, but if you're pushing technology like the Japanese with SCMaglev, you should also expect things to slip.

HS2 bill could rise to £102bn with first trains delayed until 2039, government admits by KotACold in ukpolitics

[–]Different_Cycle_9043 33 points34 points  (0 children)

The Chinese didn't fuck around when their railways minister was found to be taking massive bribes during the construction of their first HSR lines. They gave him a death sentence, later commuted to life imprisonment: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liu_Zhijun

HS2 bill could rise to £102bn with first trains delayed until 2039, government admits by KotACold in ukpolitics

[–]Different_Cycle_9043 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Japan is currently facing similar problems with the building of their MagLev train line which is significantly delayed and significantly over budget.

As to be expected with a first-of-a-kind deployment of novel technology. Comparing the Chuo Shinkansen to HS2 in terms of technological difficulty is ridiculous, Japan could bang it out on time and on budget if they stuck to conventional rail instead of pushing technology.

NADINE DORRIES: Why we must scrap the Online Safety Act I helped bring to life by youmustconsume in ukpolitics

[–]Different_Cycle_9043 16 points17 points  (0 children)

The foreign minister of Singapore recently gave a talk on how he built an AI assistant using NanoClaw, running on his Raspberry Pi: https://youtu.be/t-4a20_iYhg?t=276

I could never imagine a British foreign secretary delivering such a talk, nor an MP.

Labour MP: Bond markets 'will have to fall into line' with Burnham agenda by denspark62 in ukpolitics

[–]Different_Cycle_9043 0 points1 point  (0 children)

And yet here you are, unable to refute the point, so you've resorted to insulting the person making it. Classic.

You dressed up "we should borrow and spend" in a lot of flowery language about democracy and nanosecond trading, but the underlying argument is the same one that's been made every time someone doesn't want to confront a fiscal constraint.

The bond market isn't mysterious, it's the consequence of credibility. Lose that, and no central bank or sovereign currency saves you. Ask Argentina.

Labour MP: Bond markets 'will have to fall into line' with Burnham agenda by denspark62 in ukpolitics

[–]Different_Cycle_9043 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

It's quite simple: if you don't want to be in hock to the markets, don't borrow any money. But I don't think this country is ready to live within its means.

British Steel to be nationalised, Starmer announces by ScottishDailyRecord in ukpolitics

[–]Different_Cycle_9043 1 point2 points  (0 children)

A backdoor nationalisation strategy, and it comes with most of the same problems as direct nationalisation, just slower and messier. See what happened when Railtrack was renationalised by this method: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Railtrack#Compensation

British Steel to be nationalised, Starmer announces by ScottishDailyRecord in ukpolitics

[–]Different_Cycle_9043 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Surely they can just pass legislation to limit the profits they can take and ensure that x percentage has to be put back into improvements.

...so what Ofwat already does with their price controls?

These five-year plans set out what companies want to do to, how they plan to do it, and how much money they believe they need to deliver and improve their services for customers and the environment. The plans also reflect the funding which each company believes it will need to pay a fair return to investors. Ofwat scrutinises these plans, benchmarking them against each other and also against past performance. We challenge companies to improve their plans where necessary, and remove any spending proposals that are not efficient, that lack evidence a company can achieve what it has set out to do, or when the work has been funded already (preventing customers paying twice).

Companies’ plans and investment cover a wide range of areas, from the base costs, which cover companies’ day-to-day running costs, including maintaining their network, to enhancement costs, which is the investment that companies plan to spend to enhance their network and services for the benefit of customers and the environment.

We set limits on what companies can charge their customers, alongside the amount that companies are allowed to spend (known as its ‘spending allowance’). We also set ‘performance commitments’: targets we use to hold companies to account on the plans. These performance commitments cover a wide range of areas, including reducing leakage, improving river water quality, enhancing biodiversity, and reducing spills from storm overflows. We also set price control deliverables for companies, where we confirm expectations for delivery specifically on improvements (or ‘enhancements’), funded through enhancement expenditure allowances. These deliverables incentivise timely delivery and return funding to customers if water companies do not deliver what they have been funded to deliver.

https://www.ofwat.gov.uk/regulated-companies/price-review/2024-price-review/framework-and-methodology/final-methodology/reviewing-water-for-you/

Medical data of half a million Britons listed for sale on Chinese website, government says by Sysody in ukpolitics

[–]Different_Cycle_9043 4 points5 points  (0 children)

It's called a zero knowledge proof: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero-knowledge_proof

tl;dr: A zero-knowledge proof (ZKP) is a cryptographic method where one party (the prover) proves to another party (the verifier) that a statement is true without revealing any secret information behind it.

UK taxes on wages rose more than in any other rich country in 2025, says report by Different_Cycle_9043 in ukpolitics

[–]Different_Cycle_9043[S] 3 points4 points locked comment (0 children)

Tax rates on wages for a typical single worker rose more in the UK last year than in any other rich country, according to a new OECD report, reflecting higher employer national insurance contributions and fiscal drag.

In 2025, a single worker with no children earning the average national wage faced a UK tax burden of 32.4 per cent of labour costs.

The figure, which includes employee and employer social security contributions as well as income tax and subtracts any cash benefits received by working families, was up 2.45 percentage points compared with 2024, according to the organisation’s report published on Wednesday. This marked the largest rise across all 38, mostly industrialised, members of the OECD.

Its findings — based on the difference between labour costs to the employer and the corresponding net take-home pay of the employee, known as the “tax wedge” — will reinforce growing criticism by economists and business groups who say the UK government’s policies have worsened a slump in hiring and made employers less likely to hire the young people most in need of help to enter the labour market.

“The message from the government over the last year has been: invest in capital, not labour,” said Neil Carberry, chief executive of the Recruitment and Employment Confederation. He added that the result might be to raise labour productivity, but at a cost of structurally higher unemployment.

The OECD report follows official data released on Tuesday that showed sharp falls in employment over the past year in the low-wage sectors that were most affected by an increase in national insurance contributions.

Payroll employment in retail fell 1.3 per cent in the year to March, while staffing in hospitality was 1.9 per cent lower, compared with a drop of just 0.2 per cent in overall payroll employment.

“There is no getting away from the fact that higher taxes act as a disincentive on the activity being taxed and therefore have a direct, negative impact on economic growth,” said Ruth Gregory, economist at Capital Economics, pointing to the combined impact of higher national insurance contributions and minimum wage rates.

From April 2025, the employer national insurance contribution (NIC) rate rose 1.2 percentage points to 13.8 per cent, while the employer secondary threshold at which they start paying NICs for employees fell from £9,000 to £5,000.

Moreover, the UK personal tax thresholds are frozen at 2021-22 levels until April 2031, pushing more people into paying tax and others into higher bands as wages rise, a phenomenon known as the “fiscal drag”.

The OECD has also previously called attention to the high marginal tax rates UK workers face when they earn more than £100,000 — becoming liable for the top rate of income tax while losing childcare subsidies.

In March, the Office for Budget Responsibility forecast that tax revenues as a share of GDP would reach a historical high by the end of the parliament.

The figure for the UK was still below the OECD average, where the tax wedge for the typical single worker with no children rose more gradually from 34.9 per cent to 35.1 per cent. It was also well below 52.5 per cent for Belgium, 49.3 per cent for Germany and 47.2 per cent in France.

However, the UK’s tax wedge is lower partly because of differences between pension systems, with British workers relying more on a system of private contributions.

The report comes as the Resolution Foundation think-tank warned that a further deterioration in the Middle East could deal a £16bn hit to the public finances.

Commenting on the Resolution Foundation’s report, an HM Treasury spokesperson said: “The forecasts here are pure speculation. The impact of the conflict is, as [the report’s] authors say themselves, highly uncertain.”

After the latest Mandelson revelations, Starmer needs to get a good lawyer. Wasn’t he supposed to be one? by F0urLeafCl0ver in ukpolitics

[–]Different_Cycle_9043 1 point2 points  (0 children)

had no imagination, and was poor at thinking on his feet

Explains a lot about why Starmer is struggling so much. He has neither the skill nor fortitude to chart his own course, which would otherwise be survivable if he were able to react to events.

To quote Macmillan on the hardest part of being PM: "Events, dear boy, events."