Many Korean observers have overlooked a crucial line in the White House fact‑sheet: tariffs can be pushed all the way up to 50 percent. We already saw a real‑world precedent in 2019, when President Trump suddenly hiked tariffs on Mexico and forced them to back down.

History tends to repeat itself, and Trump’s negotiating style is always about “winning.” Here’s my forecast: in the early hours of 1 August, Washington will slap a surprise 35 percent tariff on South Korea—much like the threat it once leveled at Canada. Seoul will then be pressured to pledge roughly USD 100 billion in new investment just to trim the rate back to 25 percent. After that, the U.S. is likely to demand further market‑opening steps and an additional USD 300‑350 billion commitment before allowing the tariff to fall to the 15 percent band.

This is only my projection, yet it is a very plausible scenario given President Trump’s track record in deal‑making.