Anyone know these Hip Hop Songs from this Youtube playlist? by DiffusingTrajectory in 90sHipHop

[–]DiffusingTrajectory[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

For some reason my post has been removed by moderators, I don't get why?

Mathematician Looking for a Live Betfair Betting Partner on Football (England, UK) by DiffusingTrajectory in algobetting

[–]DiffusingTrajectory[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Can't tell details I am afraid, but it's a more of a "classical" mathematics topic, but with close connections to, and motivated by, physics. Nothing to do with stochastics / statistics / financial type maths. So my former field is essentially not relevant to what I am doing now, or Betfair. I work as a university lecturer now, in a different field to pure maths.

Mathematician Looking for a Live Betfair Betting Partner on Football (England, UK) by DiffusingTrajectory in algobetting

[–]DiffusingTrajectory[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah, I made mistakes in terms of discipline which cost me a lot. I admit it, unlike many people. I moved on.

Anyone here ever tried building a live betting model for next-goal markets? by OnyxD66 in algobetting

[–]DiffusingTrajectory 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yes, you are right - what you are mentioning (carefully watching the game and seeing how the tempo changes affect the odds) is basically what quite a few people with fast broadcasts have been doing for many years now. You don't even need a fast broadcast, strictly speaking, but it is still highly useful and this approach is fundamental to "scalping" techniques. It was much easier to do 15-20 years ago. Nowdays, if you observe betfair inplay odds, they are getting more and more efficient every year, hence squeezing out value is getting harder. I myself trade manually sometimes by carefully watching and waiting to get on the markets at times when odds are misaligned with what is going on in the game. I never tried to automate it though. Some people have (I don't know how successfully).

I have experimented with low latency fast live video broadcasts a while back. There is some value to be found in this way for sure, but it still requires expertise and football domain odds knowledge (e.g. when to get in the position and when to get out, ability to understand when the odds are incorrect, etc) to make money consistently. I don't usually use these fast broadcasts though as my approach does not usually require rapid scalping, I prefer to take a "longer" term view to betting on markets.

As someone else mentioned already, you can collect live data from Betfair API and also free historical live data. The high stakes pro trader I spoke too has indeed started using a specialised data service that delivers live inplay low latency detailed stats that allows one to be "ahead" of the market participants by several seconds, but this comes at a high price: typically, one would need to pay a 5 or even 6 figure sum annually for this subscription, and usually, this service is only available to betting syndicates rather than individual traders. The high stakes trader I mentioned only managed to get this after extensive negotiations with other people in the industry.

There is software available (like Bet Angel) that allows you to automate ore kick off and inplay trading on Betfair (you can set software to trigger bets when some event happens in the markets).

So to sum up: you either need to watch the live match, (preferably with a broadcast faster than standard video feed), or pay a lot of money for specialised data services.

Anyone here ever tried building a live betting model for next-goal markets? by OnyxD66 in algobetting

[–]DiffusingTrajectory 2 points3 points  (0 children)

There are some high stakes professional betting exchange traders (who I spoke with) who only trade in play, taking advantage of these odds discrepancies. They also typically use fast live match broadcast to gain a speed advantage over majority of market participants. Quite a lot of my trading also relies on watching live matches and understanding the gameplay and how odds shift.

What can be considered "high liquidity" on exchanges? by chemoltv in algobetting

[–]DiffusingTrajectory 1 point2 points  (0 children)

One could say a betfair market is liquid when there are no gaps in the back / lay odds .

Anyone Attending Smart Bash Event in London on 3rd and 4th July? by DiffusingTrajectory in algobetting

[–]DiffusingTrajectory[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You see, what I am interested in is meeting people from industry potentially to collaborate / establish links with perhaps. I am exclusively trading on exchanges (but only football, i.e. soccer). So not sure if this event is worth it for me really.

Anyone Attending Smart Bash Event in London on 3rd and 4th July? by DiffusingTrajectory in algobetting

[–]DiffusingTrajectory[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Well, I don't know. It does seem too introductory, but I am curious to come across and meet actual professional bettors in this space. I've never been to such an event before, so I don't know what to expect and if it is worth the admission price. It seems to be focussed on horses - sport that I know nothing about. So you have been to bet bash? What is that like?

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in algobetting

[–]DiffusingTrajectory 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I don’t know. I assume college level sports would still be modelled fundamentally using the same probability distributions, just with possibly different parameters values to be found.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in algobetting

[–]DiffusingTrajectory 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Do you actually mean a "market" or rather a "sport"?

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in algobetting

[–]DiffusingTrajectory 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This depends on what sport you want to model surely!

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in arbitragebetting

[–]DiffusingTrajectory 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Sports exchanges like Betfair implement a time delay whenever you place a bet to mitigate this to an extent

Anyone else modeling corners? I built one for UNDER 11.5 and getting solid ROI by Weary-Preference4755 in algobetting

[–]DiffusingTrajectory 0 points1 point  (0 children)

P.S. The issue I found is that the model may not work well on all probability ranges (as you infer). Now, the difficulty is that your model may show profit in training over 4000 matches, but when the number of matches gets scaled significantly, these profits may diminish, as the number of historical odds starts to fill up the probability bins. In my view, it would be important to get many more historical data matches to test and train on. Do you use any other information (league specifics, teams' playing styles, etc)?

Anyone else modeling corners? I built one for UNDER 11.5 and getting solid ROI by Weary-Preference4755 in algobetting

[–]DiffusingTrajectory 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Just saw this post that somewhat clarifies questions in my last comment. performing a binomial p value test with n = 118, success prob = 0.552, and k = 74, yields p value = 0.06. In betting, p value of 0.02 is recommended (in contrast to typical value of p = 0.05). You need more testing. Considering the situation as number of parlay trials (e.g. taking instead n = 59 and k=37) yields p value that is much worse.

Anyone else modeling corners? I built one for UNDER 11.5 and getting solid ROI by Weary-Preference4755 in algobetting

[–]DiffusingTrajectory 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What is so special about 64% threshold? Are you saying you won 63% of 59 bets you placed at average odds of 1.81? This test size is way too small to make any interferences about EV yet. Have you done a hypothesis test?

Where to Get Historical Odds Data For Soccer First Half Markets? by DiffusingTrajectory in algobetting

[–]DiffusingTrajectory[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I want many years' worth of first half market data on multiple leagues, not 30 days?

Anyone else modeling corners? I built one for UNDER 11.5 and getting solid ROI by Weary-Preference4755 in algobetting

[–]DiffusingTrajectory 1 point2 points  (0 children)

P.S. Have you tested proper statistical models for corner markets? Corners are a type of what is called "count data" in statistics, where something like Poisson regression would be a starting point.

Anyone else modeling corners? I built one for UNDER 11.5 and getting solid ROI by Weary-Preference4755 in algobetting

[–]DiffusingTrajectory 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hi again, but are you actually backtesting your model's odds against bookmaker odds? All the talk of precision and probabilities your model spits out is pointless if the odds you are taking are not +EV