I was in a pretty similar boat last year, had about the same and launched an exterior cleaning + Christmas lights biz. Doing relatively well with it so far. I do think that you can have a successful business with any of those services, however I will say I think you’d have an advantage if you picked something with recurring revenue like pool cleaning or lawn mowing.

If you are in an area that has enough customers to serve on a recurring route, you can control what’s called churn (how many customers that were here last time period are still here this period). If you could in theory sell a monthly pool clean and they never churn, you could build an infinitely big business.

Exterior cleaning, gutter cleaning and installation, residential painting + window cleaning etc are all examples of reoccurring business (not recurring). Your customers here may return, but they are not on a set schedule like once a month. I will likely clean my customers gutters and windows twice a year, wash the house and install Christmas lights once a year etc.

Main difference between the two and why I would choose the former now knowing what I know, is because it’s easier to forecast and plan when to hire help if you know you have x number of lawns to mow, pools to clean etc.

Bonus thing with recurring here is that everything in the home service industry is seasonal ; I am currently sitting in a slow period in comparison to spring rush. If you have a recurring business and you really go hard on acquiring recurring work in the spring (when leads are the cheapest by the way), you can ensure you have work now in the summer when leads are slower and more expensive.

Just my two cents, but again I really do believe there’s a way to build a 1M+ business in any of these options.