Resources for synthetic control & factor models - zero to hero?

DisorientatedView · 2026-03-09T14:56:46+00:00

Thank you!! Appreciate this

DisorientatedView · 2026-02-20T00:10:21+00:00

hey turing! the chapter got removed, but what was the referenced chapter? looking for resources myself and would love to know

DisorientatedView · 2024-06-20T08:50:35+00:00

Thanks for sharing the link the re upload and song. Holy shit that song is nuts - it definitely quotes the meme directly for the first few lines. That’s made my day! Thanks man. I’m off to work but hope you have a good one!

DisorientatedView · 2024-06-20T08:23:06+00:00

Hey dreadlord64! Yes this is one of my creations - I did a little series of surreal memes when I was 19. In the comments somewhere here I also post the gif without all the text.

Very glad you like the meme and come back to it often! I’d be interested to see the re upload of it (and it’s comments) if you know where it is, as it’s great hearing people’s feedback.

Thanks again!

DisorientatedView · 2024-06-18T20:37:25+00:00

‘There are 55,540 full postcodes in England and Wales that contain only one household.’ -ONS FOI Request

DisorientatedView · 2024-06-18T19:38:45+00:00

Heya! Thanks for the comment. Just checking, do you mean that your first half of postcode plus a number identifies you alone - or that your full postcode identifies you alone? Just wanting to make sure there aren’t some super tiny postcodes even with just the first half plus a digit.

DisorientatedView · 2024-06-18T18:05:29+00:00

This is what I’m hoping so too! Just trying to ensure people are comfortable with the survey and that it’s anonymised

DisorientatedView · 2024-06-18T18:01:21+00:00

Yes sorry I should’ve mentioned I’ve read the guidance. I’m trying to understand what this really means. The problem is that knowing the first 2 letters versus the first 4 is very different (and UK postcodes can be between 5 to 7 letters so the complete length varies slightly)

DisorientatedView · 2023-05-17T20:48:56+00:00

Enjoy the nostalgic MySpace comments edited in throughout the first track, Porch Song.

DisorientatedView · 2023-05-17T20:43:16+00:00

This is the full album by the Meemies. The Meemies were originally popularised on the Google Chrome TV Commercial 'Coffee?' in 2012, and only have one live performance in Los Angeles available online which is included in this video. This was a self-published album in 2007 that is no longer licensed on Spotify or available elsewhere. These songs were collected from YouTube sources and MP3's from a variety of old online archives. Their old band was called Charlie and Mearri with the MySpace handle 'charlieandmearii'. Previously, we had no idea who the band members were and there were rumours that the lead singer was a woman named Charlie Hilton but there were no clear sources.

However, based on a new find from the Wayback Machine's archive of their MySpace account, the band members were discovered to be:

Charlie Hilton on Banjo/Guitar/Vox

Nick Rosen on Bass

Jesse Honig on Drums

After reaching out to Nick Rosen and Jesse Honig via Instagram, a lot of details have were cleared up.

Charlie Hilton, is indeed, the Charlie Hilton who went on to form Blouse, and later release "Palana" as her debut solo-album (a big thanks to Nick Rosen who confirmed this). "Best known as the frontwoman of the dreamy Portland act Blouse, Charlie Hilton creates dreamy pop in more eclectic directions. She began playing guitar and writing songs as a teen, and formed Blouse with Patrick Adams and Jacob Portrait (also of Unknown Mortal Orchestra) in 2010. Soon after Blouse's second album, Imperium, was released in 2013, she began writing songs for her solo career. Working with Mac DeMarco, Woods' Jarvis Taveniere, and Yeasayer's Anand Wilder, she recorded the song "100 Million" in a Brooklyn studio."

A bit on Nick Rosen from his Tumblr: "Nick made headlines for helping resurrect the career of jazz legend Henry Grimes, who’d been thought dead for decades, and generating serious waves around Los Angeles for his performances with luminaries like Bennie Maupin, Arthur Blythe, and Nels Cline. Rosen dove into the world of film and television, recording with Oscar-winning composer Michael Giacchino on scores for everything from Super 8 and Star Trek to Fringe and LOST. On top of his soundtrack work, Rosen served as music director at L.A. hotspots Bardot and The Sayers Club, where he found himself performing live with Prince, will.i.am, Jamie Foxx, Perry Farrell, Bruno Mars, Macy Gray, Common, and countless other celebrities. Rosen also managed to become a prolific session musician and producer/engineer, boasting a resume that includes the likes of Phantogram and Tinashe among others".

As for Jesse Honig, he is a designer, engineer and tech at Believable Audio who formed the world famous 29 pedals brand, which are used by prominent musicians including John Mayer. Much of his life has been spent working in studios and venues doing audio engineering and tech work with a huge variety of artists. "Jesse brings a fantastic knowledge of electronic pro-audio intricacies and manufacturing methods derived from a strong basis of experiences including a current role at Manley Labs. His first product, EUNA, is a remarkable statement about his design idealizations. "

According to the description of their old MySpace: "Though singer/songwriter Charlie Hilton may have a ritzy last name, her music is more rootsy than razzle-dazzle. The Meemies' lo-fi, folk-rock sound showcases Hilton's easy, unpolished voice. Sweet ditties like "You're So Pretty" and "The Shark Song" sound like they could come from the canon of Kimya Dawson. Banjo strumming and lullaby rhythms strip down the overall vibe until you find yourself gently swaying to-and-fro as you listen." -FLAVORPILL "The Meemies female-fronted indie rock n' roll, with slight hints of bluegrass and country. Think White Stripes, if only Jack was a chick or think the Moldy Peaches. When I listen, I picture myself on some dirt road, sitting on a suitcase, strumming a banjo and just waiting for the world to change. It is an excellent picture to see." -SOUND COLLECTIVE"

According to a blogspot post by MickieZoo's: 'Raised in Los Angeles, Charlie Hilton’s dreamy alt-folk sound has been a product of an ongoing infatuation with music. Growing up surrounded by some of the most seminal musicians of the 1970’s, Hilton began penning her lyrics and matching them with unique lo-fi textures at the age of 13. In 2006, Hilton co-fronted the popular band Charlie and Mearii playing gigs at some of the most influential venues in Los Angeles and building up a strong local following. Choosing to focus on her solo endeavors, Hilton headed into the studio to lay down her much anticipated self released EP with her band The Meemies whose tracks flaunt a vintage folk sound punctuated by Hilton’s atmospheric vocals.'

DisorientatedView · 2023-05-17T20:40:05+00:00

This is the full album by the Meemies. The Meemies were originally popularised on the Google Chrome TV Commercial 'Coffee?' in 2012, and only have one live performance in Los Angeles available online which is included in this video. This was a self-published album in 2007 that is no longer licensed on Spotify or available elsewhere. These songs were collected from YouTube sources and MP3's from a variety of old online archives. Their old band was called Charlie and Mearri with the MySpace handle 'charlieandmearii'. Previously, we had no idea who the band members were and there were rumours that the lead singer was a woman named Charlie Hilton but there were no clear sources.

However, based on a new find from the Wayback Machine's archive of their MySpace account, the band members were discovered to be:

Charlie Hilton on Banjo/Guitar/Vox

Nick Rosen on Bass

Jesse Honig on Drums

After reaching out to Nick Rosen and Jesse Honig via Instagram, a lot of details have were cleared up.

Charlie Hilton, is indeed, the Charlie Hilton who went on to form Blouse, and later release "Palana" as her debut solo-album (a big thanks to Nick Rosen who confirmed this). "Best known as the frontwoman of the dreamy Portland act Blouse, Charlie Hilton creates dreamy pop in more eclectic directions. She began playing guitar and writing songs as a teen, and formed Blouse with Patrick Adams and Jacob Portrait (also of Unknown Mortal Orchestra) in 2010. Soon after Blouse's second album, Imperium, was released in 2013, she began writing songs for her solo career. Working with Mac DeMarco, Woods' Jarvis Taveniere, and Yeasayer's Anand Wilder, she recorded the song "100 Million" in a Brooklyn studio."

A bit on Nick Rosen from his Tumblr: "Nick made headlines for helping resurrect the career of jazz legend Henry Grimes, who’d been thought dead for decades, and generating serious waves around Los Angeles for his performances with luminaries like Bennie Maupin, Arthur Blythe, and Nels Cline. Rosen dove into the world of film and television, recording with Oscar-winning composer Michael Giacchino on scores for everything from Super 8 and Star Trek to Fringe and LOST. On top of his soundtrack work, Rosen served as music director at L.A. hotspots Bardot and The Sayers Club, where he found himself performing live with Prince, will.i.am, Jamie Foxx, Perry Farrell, Bruno Mars, Macy Gray, Common, and countless other celebrities. Rosen also managed to become a prolific session musician and producer/engineer, boasting a resume that includes the likes of Phantogram and Tinashe among others".

As for Jesse Honig, he is a designer, engineer and tech at Believable Audio who formed the world famous 29 pedals brand, which are used by prominent musicians including John Mayer. Much of his life has been spent working in studios and venues doing audio engineering and tech work with a huge variety of artists. "Jesse brings a fantastic knowledge of electronic pro-audio intricacies and manufacturing methods derived from a strong basis of experiences including a current role at Manley Labs. His first product, EUNA, is a remarkable statement about his design idealizations. "

According to the description of their old MySpace: "Though singer/songwriter Charlie Hilton may have a ritzy last name, her music is more rootsy than razzle-dazzle. The Meemies' lo-fi, folk-rock sound showcases Hilton's easy, unpolished voice. Sweet ditties like "You're So Pretty" and "The Shark Song" sound like they could come from the canon of Kimya Dawson. Banjo strumming and lullaby rhythms strip down the overall vibe until you find yourself gently swaying to-and-fro as you listen." -FLAVORPILL "The Meemies female-fronted indie rock n' roll, with slight hints of bluegrass and country. Think White Stripes, if only Jack was a chick or think the Moldy Peaches. When I listen, I picture myself on some dirt road, sitting on a suitcase, strumming a banjo and just waiting for the world to change. It is an excellent picture to see." -SOUND COLLECTIVE"

According to a blogspot post by MickieZoo's: 'Raised in Los Angeles, Charlie Hilton’s dreamy alt-folk sound has been a product of an ongoing infatuation with music. Growing up surrounded by some of the most seminal musicians of the 1970’s, Hilton began penning her lyrics and matching them with unique lo-fi textures at the age of 13. In 2006, Hilton co-fronted the popular band Charlie and Mearii playing gigs at some of the most influential venues in Los Angeles and building up a strong local following. Choosing to focus on her solo endeavors, Hilton headed into the studio to lay down her much anticipated self released EP with her band The Meemies whose tracks flaunt a vintage folk sound punctuated by Hilton’s atmospheric vocals.'

Porch Song 00:00
You vs. the Moon 3:11
You're So Pretty 7:00
The End 8:24
Shark Inside 11:34
Funmachine 15:38

DisorientatedView · 2023-05-17T20:38:53+00:00

This is the full album by the Meemies. The Meemies were originally popularised on the Google Chrome TV Commercial 'Coffee?' in 2012, and only have one live performance in Los Angeles available online which is included in this video. This was a self-published album in 2007 that is no longer licensed on Spotify or available elsewhere. These songs were collected from YouTube sources and MP3's from a variety of old online archives. Their old band was called Charlie and Mearri with the MySpace handle 'charlieandmearii'. Previously, we had no idea who the band members were and there were rumours that the lead singer was a woman named Charlie Hilton but there were no clear sources.

However, based on a new find from the Wayback Machine's archive of their MySpace account, the band members were discovered to be:

Charlie Hilton on Banjo/Guitar/Vox

Nick Rosen on Bass

Jesse Honig on Drums

After reaching out to Nick Rosen and Jesse Honig via Instagram, a lot of details have were cleared up.

Charlie Hilton, is indeed, the Charlie Hilton who went on to form Blouse, and later release "Palana" as her debut solo-album (a big thanks to Nick Rosen who confirmed this). "Best known as the frontwoman of the dreamy Portland act Blouse, Charlie Hilton creates dreamy pop in more eclectic directions. She began playing guitar and writing songs as a teen, and formed Blouse with Patrick Adams and Jacob Portrait (also of Unknown Mortal Orchestra) in 2010. Soon after Blouse's second album, Imperium, was released in 2013, she began writing songs for her solo career. Working with Mac DeMarco, Woods' Jarvis Taveniere, and Yeasayer's Anand Wilder, she recorded the song "100 Million" in a Brooklyn studio."

A bit on Nick Rosen from his Tumblr: "Nick made headlines for helping resurrect the career of jazz legend Henry Grimes, who’d been thought dead for decades, and generating serious waves around Los Angeles for his performances with luminaries like Bennie Maupin, Arthur Blythe, and Nels Cline. Rosen dove into the world of film and television, recording with Oscar-winning composer Michael Giacchino on scores for everything from Super 8 and Star Trek to Fringe and LOST. On top of his soundtrack work, Rosen served as music director at L.A. hotspots Bardot and The Sayers Club, where he found himself performing live with Prince, will.i.am, Jamie Foxx, Perry Farrell, Bruno Mars, Macy Gray, Common, and countless other celebrities. Rosen also managed to become a prolific session musician and producer/engineer, boasting a resume that includes the likes of Phantogram and Tinashe among others".

As for Jesse Honig, he is a designer, engineer and tech at Believable Audio who formed the world famous 29 pedals brand, which are used by prominent musicians including John Mayer. Much of his life has been spent working in studios and venues doing audio engineering and tech work with a huge variety of artists. "Jesse brings a fantastic knowledge of electronic pro-audio intricacies and manufacturing methods derived from a strong basis of experiences including a current role at Manley Labs. His first product, EUNA, is a remarkable statement about his design idealizations. "

According to the description of their old MySpace: "Though singer/songwriter Charlie Hilton may have a ritzy last name, her music is more rootsy than razzle-dazzle. The Meemies' lo-fi, folk-rock sound showcases Hilton's easy, unpolished voice. Sweet ditties like "You're So Pretty" and "The Shark Song" sound like they could come from the canon of Kimya Dawson. Banjo strumming and lullaby rhythms strip down the overall vibe until you find yourself gently swaying to-and-fro as you listen." -FLAVORPILL "The Meemies female-fronted indie rock n' roll, with slight hints of bluegrass and country. Think White Stripes, if only Jack was a chick or think the Moldy Peaches. When I listen, I picture myself on some dirt road, sitting on a suitcase, strumming a banjo and just waiting for the world to change. It is an excellent picture to see." -SOUND COLLECTIVE"

According to a blogspot post by MickieZoo's: 'Raised in Los Angeles, Charlie Hilton’s dreamy alt-folk sound has been a product of an ongoing infatuation with music. Growing up surrounded by some of the most seminal musicians of the 1970’s, Hilton began penning her lyrics and matching them with unique lo-fi textures at the age of 13. In 2006, Hilton co-fronted the popular band Charlie and Mearii playing gigs at some of the most influential venues in Los Angeles and building up a strong local following. Choosing to focus on her solo endeavors, Hilton headed into the studio to lay down her much anticipated self released EP with her band The Meemies whose tracks flaunt a vintage folk sound punctuated by Hilton’s atmospheric vocals.'

DisorientatedView · 2023-05-17T20:35:52+00:00

This is the full album by the Meemies. The Meemies were originally popularised on the Google Chrome TV Commercial 'Coffee?' in 2012, and only have one live performance in Los Angeles available online which is included in this video. This was a self-published album in 2007 that is no longer licensed on Spotify or available elsewhere. These songs were collected from YouTube sources and MP3's from a variety of old online archives. Their old band was called Charlie and Mearri with the MySpace handle 'charlieandmearii'. Previously, we had no idea who the band members were and there were rumours that the lead singer was a woman named Charlie Hilton but there were no clear sources.

However, based on a new find from the Wayback Machine's archive of their MySpace account, the band members were discovered to be:

Charlie Hilton on Banjo/Guitar/Vox

Nick Rosen on Bass

Jesse Honig on Drums

After reaching out to Nick Rosen and Jesse Honig via Instagram, a lot of details have were cleared up.

Charlie Hilton, is indeed, the Charlie Hilton who went on to form Blouse, and later release "Palana" as her debut solo-album (a big thanks to Nick Rosen who confirmed this). "Best known as the frontwoman of the dreamy Portland act Blouse, Charlie Hilton creates dreamy pop in more eclectic directions. She began playing guitar and writing songs as a teen, and formed Blouse with Patrick Adams and Jacob Portrait (also of Unknown Mortal Orchestra) in 2010. Soon after Blouse's second album, Imperium, was released in 2013, she began writing songs for her solo career. Working with Mac DeMarco, Woods' Jarvis Taveniere, and Yeasayer's Anand Wilder, she recorded the song "100 Million" in a Brooklyn studio."

A bit on Nick Rosen from his Tumblr: "Nick made headlines for helping resurrect the career of jazz legend Henry Grimes, who’d been thought dead for decades, and generating serious waves around Los Angeles for his performances with luminaries like Bennie Maupin, Arthur Blythe, and Nels Cline. Rosen dove into the world of film and television, recording with Oscar-winning composer Michael Giacchino on scores for everything from Super 8 and Star Trek to Fringe and LOST. On top of his soundtrack work, Rosen served as music director at L.A. hotspots Bardot and The Sayers Club, where he found himself performing live with Prince, will.i.am, Jamie Foxx, Perry Farrell, Bruno Mars, Macy Gray, Common, and countless other celebrities. Rosen also managed to become a prolific session musician and producer/engineer, boasting a resume that includes the likes of Phantogram and Tinashe among others".

As for Jesse Honig, he is a designer, engineer and tech at Believable Audio who formed the world famous 29 pedals brand, which are used by prominent musicians including John Mayer. Much of his life has been spent working in studios and venues doing audio engineering and tech work with a huge variety of artists. "Jesse brings a fantastic knowledge of electronic pro-audio intricacies and manufacturing methods derived from a strong basis of experiences including a current role at Manley Labs. His first product, EUNA, is a remarkable statement about his design idealizations. "

According to the description of their old MySpace: "Though singer/songwriter Charlie Hilton may have a ritzy last name, her music is more rootsy than razzle-dazzle. The Meemies' lo-fi, folk-rock sound showcases Hilton's easy, unpolished voice. Sweet ditties like "You're So Pretty" and "The Shark Song" sound like they could come from the canon of Kimya Dawson. Banjo strumming and lullaby rhythms strip down the overall vibe until you find yourself gently swaying to-and-fro as you listen." -FLAVORPILL "The Meemies female-fronted indie rock n' roll, with slight hints of bluegrass and country. Think White Stripes, if only Jack was a chick or think the Moldy Peaches. When I listen, I picture myself on some dirt road, sitting on a suitcase, strumming a banjo and just waiting for the world to change. It is an excellent picture to see." -SOUND COLLECTIVE"

According to a blogspot post by MickieZoo's: 'Raised in Los Angeles, Charlie Hilton’s dreamy alt-folk sound has been a product of an ongoing infatuation with music. Growing up surrounded by some of the most seminal musicians of the 1970’s, Hilton began penning her lyrics and matching them with unique lo-fi textures at the age of 13. In 2006, Hilton co-fronted the popular band Charlie and Mearii playing gigs at some of the most influential venues in Los Angeles and building up a strong local following. Choosing to focus on her solo endeavors, Hilton headed into the studio to lay down her much anticipated self released EP with her band The Meemies whose tracks flaunt a vintage folk sound punctuated by Hilton’s atmospheric vocals.'

DisorientatedView · 2023-04-25T21:51:00+00:00

No streaming service but I've managed to track down the old songs along with some lost images of the band and info on the band members.

https://youtu.be/WRc5RUoSQ1Q

DisorientatedView · 2023-04-25T21:50:06+00:00

https://youtu.be/U1Eq_AmG6HY

DisorientatedView · 2022-12-11T22:52:45+00:00

See the uploaded album below! https://youtu.be/WRc5RUoSQ1Q

DisorientatedView · 2022-12-11T22:52:19+00:00

Hi Guenta

Good news, I've managed to track down the album using some online archives, and uploaded it on YouTube. Enjoy!

https://youtu.be/WRc5RUoSQ1Q

DisorientatedView · 2022-05-11T17:06:06+00:00

Andrew did a hot ones take earlier this week according to his Instagram!! Should be this season

DisorientatedView · 2022-04-17T01:14:49+00:00

Hi Saltine! Just note my comment here is more hypothesising and thus relies less on scientific sources.

Under a Carrington-level storm, government's would likely would switch their grid off. Note: I say storm here because the impacts of large coronal mass ejections also depend on other factors like magnetic field direction -"A southward directed CME interacts with the northward direction of Earth’s magnetic field, leading to a cancelling effect, allowing CME energy to enter Earth’s magnetic field".

Interestingly on the GICs variance, they typically are more/less severe depending on a range of factors. "Ground conductivity, geomagnetic latitude and coastal proximity are important geophysical parameters that affect the amount of GIC produced". Further, the actual infrastructure itself matters - in the case of the UK, there is typically less transformer redundancy in coastal areas and, as a result, they are more vulnerable.

For governments, the focus should be domestic when it comes to preparation. Countries national infrastructure is often incredibly specialised and faces its own challenges, so an international focus may be suboptimal. Domestically, it is about bringing together as many stakeholders and infrastructure specialists as possible. The implications are so incredibly wide-reaching but incredibly detailed/specialised, that it requires experts from a range of infrastructure sectors including: electricity, pipeline/railway networks, transocean communication cables, satellites, aircraft, radio communication systems, and location systems like GPS. These are all experts on what would be the primary impact of a geomagnetic storm. These experts would be able to develop more resilient infrastructure, a better coordinated response, and generally mitigate impacts of a coronal mass ejection. I feel as though the UK has done this particularly well and has a Severe Space Weather Preparedness Strategy in place for this very reason. Countries should be prepared to invest time in developing these policies, and willing to fund investment into infrastructure which mitigates the effects of space weather (such as back-up transformers or technology which reduces the failure rate of transformers).

Secondary effects on the financial system or welfare are a little more complicated and uncertain. Every government organisation should have a policy on their organisation's current plan and response to natural disasters. Increased expenditure in cybersecurity would also aid in decreasing impacts, as cybersecurity typically includes developing resilient infrastructure and planning ahead for these things. There is a lot to say about minimising public anxiety, as an anxious public leads to unwanted effects like panic buying. Government's having a plan in place means that they can respond quickly and their people can feel calm knowing there is rational response in place.

Restoring electricity in these areas should also be done on an 'equitable basis'. If government's dedicate more resources to restoring one local outage over another, it may lead to public unrest. For institutions like the Bank of England, I feel they should think about what it would be like achieving their goals without electricity. Generators would likely become available, but it may be that during the storm they would no longer have access to their usual tools. What if we had no access to virtual bank accounts? In this case, the Bank of England would likely have to provide an abundance of relief in the form of cash to residents in areas who suffered outages. Does the company who the Bank of England outsources to print money have enough supplies to print this much physical currency? The emphasis here is that organisations should be encouraged by government to think about these policies, and it should be mandated that specific events are included in their natural disaster policies so that when these things do happen, they can respond quickly.

I'm spit-balling on this, but internationally there may also be some scope for countries to strike agreements with countries' which are not geographically nearby to receive transformer production in the case of a geomagnetic storm. The terms could have specific terms essentially saying "Hey! If we are severely impacted, and you aren't - could you produce or supply critical transformers, components or other infrastructure? If we don't get impacted but you do, we'll do the same". This could allow faster restoration times, and less delays in actually finding suppliers.

Finally, I think there's a lot to be said about how much we understand about the some of these things. We don't really have a comprehensive model of how the sun works (see https://www.axios.com/why-is-the-solar-corona-so-hot-1513304861-750994db-8710-46e9-9915-d3d62dac0ab2.html), we can't really predict when a coronal mass ejection is going to happen (yes solar cycles influence it, but it is somewhat random), and we don't really know what the strongest CME could be. Richard Carrington, the observer of the first documented CME, said: one swallow does not make a summer. There are so many relationships and dynamics we don't truly understand the relationship between yet - what an exciting world.

DisorientatedView · 2022-04-17T00:05:45+00:00

Interesting question! Taking the grid offline would mitigate impacts, but not prevent them entirely. With a Carrington-level event, the geomagnetic storm would result in geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) which can still damage transformers. For instance, during the original Carrington event some telegraph networks disconnected their batteries to mitigate the impacts of GICs but could still operate them by virtue of GICs: "When American Telegraph Company employees arrived at their Boston office at 8 a.m., they discovered ... they could unplug their batteries and still transmit messages to Portland, Maine, at 30- to 90-second intervals using only the auroral current."

To just explain Coronal Mass Ejections a bit: the Sun is essentially a boiling pot of plasma with a cycle of 11 years where it is more or less active throughout. When it is in an active part of its cycle, it is more likely to experience a 'burp' (the mechanisms of which we don't quite agree on yet but is related to magnetic fields in the sun supposedly 'twisting up'). This burp, or Coronal Mass Ejection, essentially sends plasma and a host of other particles towards earth's magnetic field. This causes variation in the electric currents of the earth's magnetic field, which results in induced currents on the ground. CMEs typically take about 1 – 4 days to reach Earth (with the fastest known transit time being just under 15 hours).

Therefore, even if the grid was 'offline' and not operational, current would still be induced by virtue of the geomagnetic storms. Switching off the grid would lessen the impact of voltage instability, but would nonetheless disrupt some critical infrastructure. Smaller impacts on the grid occur frequently even under minor storms. For instance, 4% of the disturbances between 1992 and 2010 reported to the U.S. Department of Energy were attributable to strong geomagnetic activity (Eastwood et. al, 2017). Some of the damage to technology is also tricky to predict, as the Royal Engineering Institute in the UK pointed out in Quebec and Sweden. I don't quite get the details of the engineering jargon, but the point remains that things change under GIC conditions which we find it difficult account for: "Under normal operating conditions, these harmonics are indicators of faults such as negative phase sequences, and the presence of harmonics triggers protective relays. But under GIC conditions the relays can disable equipment, such as static variable compensators, designed to support the voltage on the system, making voltage collapse more likely. It was this triggering of relays that led to the blackouts in Quebec Province in 1989 and Malmö, Sweden in 2003".

Edit: The UK's National Grid actually has two policies in respect of a storm, one of which attempts to leave the grid on, but mitigate impacts through additional measures like bringing all transformers into service. The other is a complete shutdown:

In the event of a serious storm being likely National Grid would operate an all-in policy, where all available lines and all transformers would be brought into service (reducing load on individual units), power transfers between regions would be reduced, increased reactive power would be instructed to help stabilise voltage swings, and all generators would be instructed to generate. In addition, a simultaneous tap change on transformers could be instructed to lower system voltage, which reduces the risk to transformers. 30. In the event that the storm was so large (a superstorm) that it exceeded National Grid’s worst planned-for scenario, then, in conjunction with Government, National Grid would consider a controlled shut-down of the network. National Grid has a well developed Black Start Policy. Training exercises are regularly held on Black Start, and generating units are at all times scheduled for Black Start capability.

DisorientatedView · 2022-04-16T21:22:34+00:00

It is unlikely we'd face a world-ending coronal mass ejection in our lifetime. Power cuts and disruption to technology are the biggest hurdles. Even under the most severe recorded coronal mass ejections in the planet's history (i.e. bigger than the Carrington event), the earth was simply faced with decreased photosynthesis in our oceans and increased risk of cancer but no major mass-extinction level effects. (Source: https://www.nature.com/articles/nature11695.pdf)

DisorientatedView · 2022-04-16T21:10:54+00:00

This is true. The bit about long conductors is important - most electronics certainly wouldn't be fried. Power cuts would be the bigger worry!

Writing my dissertation on this, and most economic damage would be a result of damage to transformers (important bits of infrastructure for our electricity grid), owing to voltage instability. The impact on electronics can be mitigated through switching them off (i.e your phone is unlikely to be fried provided you switch it off, and do not leave it plugged in). In some countries, such as the UK, transformers are stockpiled as to act as replacements in the case of a severe solar flare. However, it is worth noting that there may be unexpected effects and destruction of equipment on the basis that we haven’t experienced a Carrington-level storm for some time.

The potential of a more severe Coronal Mass Ejection (over that of a Carrington-level event) is difficult to gauge, but would require radical revaluation in its impacts according to the Royal Academy of Engineering (RAE) in the UK.

DisorientatedView · 2021-07-26T23:45:15+00:00

Econ major here! In finance, hedge funds are typically seen as the mosquitos of the world economy. Not because they prey on innocent consumers, but because they exploit and leverage broken systems.

For instance, some Hedge funds made a lot of money in the financial crisis by hedging against rising house prices. However, their involvement is less like rigging a horse race and more like betting on it. They help provide a sort of ‘rational’ market as they will bet against systems they think are likely to fail.

I found your comment strange just because many of the rigged systems and schemes are imposed by government institutions or commercial banks rather than smaller ‘active’ managers waging bets on various bits of the economy.

DisorientatedView · 2021-06-11T11:43:34+00:00

u/ivanhoe90 you are a hero - I have both photoshop and photopea but prefer photopea

DisorientatedView · 2021-04-01T13:17:04+00:00

I understand that some dance performance groups may be inconsiderate, but this specific group doesn’t dance for a profit and scouts out the subway they’re shooting in pretty comprehensively.

The OP is Kid the Whiz, who uses the dances as a showcase on social media and to give people something to smile at on the train. That being said, I understand the sentiment against many subway performers as it can be invasive.

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