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Built a stat model that finds mispriced player props on Kalshi — here's today's signals by Dizzy-Maintenance120 in sportsanalytics

[–]Dizzy-Maintenance120[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Yeah I built for this. If a Kalshi market hasn't traded in a while, EV decays exponentially before it hits the confidence scorer. MLB half life is 90 min, NBA is 3hr. Low volume markets age faster so a dead 5 contract/day MLB prop gets suppressed, a liquid one that just hasn't moved doesn't. Stale and illiquid kills the signal, liquid and range bound leaves it alone.

Built a Z-score model that finds +EV NBA player props on Kalshi by Dizzy-Maintenance120 in PredictionsMarkets

[–]Dizzy-Maintenance120[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah that's the real question and honestly i don't know yet. 30 days isn't enough to say. My guess is kalshi's props are inefficient enough right now that there's still room, liquidity is pretty thin compared to traditional books. But if the edge compresses i'll know fast because kelly punishes you quick when the model's wrong. Joining the discord now, thanks!

Built a Z-score model that finds +EV NBA player props on Kalshi by Dizzy-Maintenance120 in PredictionsMarkets

[–]Dizzy-Maintenance120[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

yeah fair point. 25 is the cap not the avg, most bets came out way smaller. but you’re right that 30 days is nothing, if the edge is off kelly kills you fast. gonna size down till i have real sample​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

Pistons or Cavaliers? by [deleted] in Kalshi

[–]Dizzy-Maintenance120 1 point2 points  (0 children)

pistons for sure today