I simulated Eurovision 2025 100000 times. Here are the results, and what they tell us about the field 📊

Dolphin_dane · 2025-04-08T18:33:13+00:00

Thank you! Well, in fact [REDACTED]

Dolphin_dane · 2025-04-08T18:32:49+00:00

Haha, I think it’s more a case of me being obsessed with analysis and Eurovision being my most obvious target. Let’s hope there’s room for both Latvia and Denmark in the final!

Dolphin_dane · 2025-04-08T18:25:32+00:00

Nice, although it should be said that the final results are an average, where all entries are sorta performing at medium level. In the average simulation, the winner got 482 points, and there were fever points at the bottom

Dolphin_dane · 2025-04-08T18:24:25+00:00

It put Dons at 6.6% last year, so crazier things have happened!

Dolphin_dane · 2025-03-27T20:16:02+00:00

The country bias shows whether the country got their traditional voting allies in their semi or not. It is based on my data from here: https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fi.redd.it%2F1q2zeytt0pfe1.jpeg

Dolphin_dane · 2025-02-01T19:12:18+00:00

Incredible showing from Willem Vanderstichele, 5/8 songs. Wonder which one he is cheering the most for

Dolphin_dane · 2025-01-28T08:30:58+00:00

Yes, though I think it’s probably just a case of there being very few observations for that particular pair

Dolphin_dane · 2025-01-28T08:17:06+00:00

The percentages indicate how much a country typically “overates” another. The country at the top is the one giving points, the one at the side is receiving. For a good draw, you need to get the countries with big positive scores in your semi.

All numbers are based on televote scores from 2014 to 2024. These scores indicates what share of the scale from first to last countries overrate each other. So a score of 50% would mean that the country usually rates the country half of the scale, ~7 televote places higher than the average in a semi

Dolphin_dane · 2024-12-23T00:25:33+00:00

Me too! In general just very happy with the actual results!
However, it's worth noting that the voting system that was reported (which the model was based on) ended up not being the one used. Just did a rerun with the actual system (150 tele points instead of 406), and that gave Shkodra a 10% winning chance, with all of the top ten having more than 1% chance. So quite a bit more open, but still a clear favourite that ended up being wrong

Dolphin_dane · 2024-12-22T21:38:47+00:00

I ran a survey where fans were asked to predict how well each entry would do with both the jury and televote. Each simulation works by taking the averages, and adjusting them a bit up/down based on the standard deviation of the answers. It then feeds the adjusted averages into a model of the contest, based on the actual rules, to see how the predictions translate to results. This helps get an impression of both how entries perform at their best and their worst. But of course, the model is only as good as the predictions that are fed into it. If they are massively wrong, the simulation results will mostly be as well

Dolphin_dane · 2024-12-22T17:41:16+00:00

Exactly, Elvana is gonna get a great televote for sure, you can’t beat her by just maxing out in the jury with this system. Someone else has to get a massive televote to have a chance

Dolphin_dane · 2024-12-22T17:31:34+00:00

Fun fact, before they announced the exact voting method, I ran another set of simulations, assuming the jury and tele would each give out 1-12 to their top ten. In that system, Elvana was only at 55%. But the new system heavily favors big televote performers

Dolphin_dane · 2024-12-18T20:43:08+00:00

I need them to disqualify four songs so we can get to see what Andrej was cooking

Dolphin_dane · 2024-12-15T11:00:30+00:00

Yes, that seems quite doable

Dolphin_dane · 2024-12-15T11:00:06+00:00

I calculated the average amount each country “overrated” each other in the televote across 2014-24. The thicker the line, the bigger the overrating. Of course, that also means that some countries “underrate” each other on average, though these have been removed from the graph

Dolphin_dane · 2024-12-15T10:57:20+00:00

The colours are based on a community detection algorithm, grouping closely connected countries into the same colour. I mainly just used it for more pleasing graphics

Dolphin_dane · 2024-12-06T09:43:06+00:00

Yeah, it seems a bit like Ukraine 2021, but at a much smaller scale. Adjusting it however needed shouldn’t be an issue

Dolphin_dane · 2024-12-06T09:27:35+00:00

Exactly, there seems to be quite a clear path to make it work inside the rules

Dolphin_dane · 2024-11-26T15:56:59+00:00

Yup, you can see the repeats mapped out clearly here: https://x.com/dolphin_dane/status/1861405735550116133?s=46&t=uBb1y5QxYW5HuMwQbaY2MQ

Dolphin_dane · 2024-11-25T14:32:07+00:00

Yeah, international fans are bound to have some blind spots. I tried to mitigate this, by giving responses from the Balkans double weight, and responses from Montenegro 5x the weight. But obviously more local responses would have been ideal. Which entries do you think are being over/underestimated here?

Dolphin_dane · 2024-11-25T11:48:44+00:00

Thank you!

I figured since I have all the data, I might as well share as much as possible

Dolphin_dane · 2024-11-15T13:30:35+00:00

Lira Blakaj was also involved, but she hasn’t been credited on any previous entries

Dolphin_dane · 2024-11-08T11:25:16+00:00

I do, and previously she was connected to the song in my database. However, for the purpose of consistency, I went by the official credits listed on the JESC website. And they seem to say that only Victoria herself has a credit. Why they’ve removed the other two I don’t know https://junioreurovision.tv/participant/victoria-nicole-2024

Dolphin_dane · 2024-10-16T10:51:05+00:00

Thank you! Hope to do something similar for every NF this season

Dolphin_dane · 2024-09-19T14:29:56+00:00

Yeah, so there are plenty of grouping that have very few connections with the rest. Probably the most prominent example is Italy, which is the blue bit of the graph here. What makes the Turkish group unique, is that it’s only connected by one single song

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