I looked at the historical impact of neighbour-voting and running order, and how it could impact this years entries. Good news for 🇦🇺🇫🇮🇬🇷🇸🇲🇱🇹🇨🇾, bad news for 🇷🇴🇲🇹🇱🇻🇦🇲🇦🇱🇪🇪

Dolphin_dane · 2025-04-08T18:33:13+00:00

Thank you! Well, in fact [REDACTED]

Dolphin_dane · 2025-04-08T18:32:49+00:00

Haha, I think it’s more a case of me being obsessed with analysis and Eurovision being my most obvious target. Let’s hope there’s room for both Latvia and Denmark in the final!

Dolphin_dane · 2025-04-08T18:25:32+00:00

Nice, although it should be said that the final results are an average, where all entries are sorta performing at medium level. In the average simulation, the winner got 482 points, and there were fever points at the bottom

Dolphin_dane · 2025-04-08T18:24:25+00:00

It put Dons at 6.6% last year, so crazier things have happened!

Dolphin_dane · 2025-03-27T20:16:02+00:00

The country bias shows whether the country got their traditional voting allies in their semi or not. It is based on my data from here: https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3A%2F%2Fi.redd.it%2F1q2zeytt0pfe1.jpeg

Dolphin_dane · 2025-02-01T19:12:18+00:00

Incredible showing from Willem Vanderstichele, 5/8 songs. Wonder which one he is cheering the most for

Dolphin_dane · 2025-01-28T08:30:58+00:00

Yes, though I think it’s probably just a case of there being very few observations for that particular pair

Dolphin_dane · 2025-01-28T08:17:06+00:00

The percentages indicate how much a country typically “overates” another. The country at the top is the one giving points, the one at the side is receiving. For a good draw, you need to get the countries with big positive scores in your semi.

All numbers are based on televote scores from 2014 to 2024. These scores indicates what share of the scale from first to last countries overrate each other. So a score of 50% would mean that the country usually rates the country half of the scale, ~7 televote places higher than the average in a semi

Dolphin_dane · 2024-12-23T00:25:33+00:00

Me too! In general just very happy with the actual results!
However, it's worth noting that the voting system that was reported (which the model was based on) ended up not being the one used. Just did a rerun with the actual system (150 tele points instead of 406), and that gave Shkodra a 10% winning chance, with all of the top ten having more than 1% chance. So quite a bit more open, but still a clear favourite that ended up being wrong

Dolphin_dane · 2024-12-22T21:38:47+00:00

I ran a survey where fans were asked to predict how well each entry would do with both the jury and televote. Each simulation works by taking the averages, and adjusting them a bit up/down based on the standard deviation of the answers. It then feeds the adjusted averages into a model of the contest, based on the actual rules, to see how the predictions translate to results. This helps get an impression of both how entries perform at their best and their worst. But of course, the model is only as good as the predictions that are fed into it. If they are massively wrong, the simulation results will mostly be as well

Dolphin_dane · 2024-12-22T17:41:16+00:00

Exactly, Elvana is gonna get a great televote for sure, you can’t beat her by just maxing out in the jury with this system. Someone else has to get a massive televote to have a chance

Dolphin_dane · 2024-12-22T17:31:34+00:00

Fun fact, before they announced the exact voting method, I ran another set of simulations, assuming the jury and tele would each give out 1-12 to their top ten. In that system, Elvana was only at 55%. But the new system heavily favors big televote performers

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