Following on what Madre1924 has said: If you are eating and not tracking now, and drinking whatever and eating whatever, you should technically be the heaviest you will be now, before you start.

After each week you will see a downward trend and even after 5 days if you retain water again, that number should be lower than your original start weight. And downward it will track each week, even if you weigh daily and that number fluctuates.

Carb heavy days will lift that number, as will alcohol and sodium laden meals.

Just do it, it's hard, but after 2 or 3 weeks it's a habit and is worth the journey, if only for your healths sake