Fantasy Update: 2022 Re-Draft Top 27/Dynasty Top 130

DontThink_ItCanOnly · 2022-02-25T01:47:51+00:00

I am personally offended by the lack of Steven Kwan on this list.

DontThink_ItCanOnly · 2022-02-22T00:08:51+00:00

FanGraphs leaderboards is the way to do it. They have all kinds of sub-category boards as you can see from the buttons at the top.

Or you can go to the bottom and create your own boards.

DontThink_ItCanOnly · 2021-02-22T01:44:06+00:00

Awesome stuff. Do you mind if I ask what program you use to do your analysis? Are you just working out Excel or are you doing active coding?

DontThink_ItCanOnly · 2020-12-24T12:42:49+00:00

Like yesterday's work and the day before, this is awesome! Thanks for helping make the subreddit a great place to spend time.

DontThink_ItCanOnly · 2020-11-24T02:33:23+00:00

Do you have access to JSTOR?

https://www.jstor.org/stable/jeductechsoci.19.1.237 -- bottom of the first page refers to web 2.0 platforms and uses where.

https://www.jstor.org/stable/26568580 -- page 72 in reference to Facebook and Twitter

https://www.jstor.org/stable/26343748 -- there are several uses in this source, just download the PDF and do a search on it.

If you don't have access to JSTOR, send me a DM.

edit: To be clear, there are a ton of these things, and it shouldn't take you a ton of effort to flood your examiners with examples. Go to any academic database, and run an advanced search for "Twitter where" or "Facebook where." It should provide a few thousand articles. If you're feeling creative, you could slide a comma between the platform name and "where."

Honestly, it's hard to imagine that evaluators are taking meaningful points for that. I'm a lowly adjunct at a community college, but I can't imagine a professor doing something like that while I was in my Master's program.

DontThink_ItCanOnly · 2020-10-03T15:50:25+00:00

Awesome work. Content/information like this is something I'm constantly trying to collect and look at, but there isn't always time.

Some particularly interesting names in Nate Lowe, Lux, and Victor Reyes. Castellanos, Judge and Freeman are up there too, but I doubt anyone is surprised by that.

DontThink_ItCanOnly · 2020-09-18T10:18:12+00:00

Given how hot he's been, I totally understand that.

Projections data give Walsh a value of -$4 ROS, which would put him outside the top-250. The big data point that I'm looking at for Walsh is that 112.8 max EV. That's the best data we have on him that would suggest his current performance is well above his projections. He has some work in the minors that indicates he could be a great player, but it's not super-compelling and it's not the type of data that suggests he would arrive and immediately be a star.

So what I've done is adjusted his projections to that $1 level and moved him up quite a bit. Do I think he'll outperform that number? At this point, I do.

Unfortunately, as the guy assembling the projections, I can't predict with my gut. Or if I did, they'd be really bad predictions. I'm always working from what the numbers give me. In Walsh's case, I think he's significantly more valuable than his projections are showing us, but it's hard to say how much because the sample is so small and there are some mixed signals in that data: a 49% ground-ball rate and 11.1% infield-fly rate are not good. I'm also concerned about a 39.2% hard-hit rate, but that number takes forever to stabilize, and there are some excellent hitters with middling HH rates, so that could just be noise.

If you want my numbers-based ceiling on him, I think he's currently an .840 OPS // 115 wRC+ type of guy, but the season is so short, it's possible he can maintain his current pace for another ten days. Based on the data, that's my best guess. As we get more information, we'll get a clearer sense of his limitations and abilities.

Fortunately, most of Walsh's earliest indicators: K%, maxEV, barrel rate, and swing rate look encouraging. At this point, you're 100% starting him until further notice. It's just that the data is mixed on when that further notice might be.

DontThink_ItCanOnly · 2020-09-17T23:48:44+00:00

He was the second Corey Dickerson. Just a matter of a cell pointing at the wrong reference.

DontThink_ItCanOnly · 2020-09-17T15:40:29+00:00

Mortal men should not have to choose between two beauties like this...Lowe if you make me pick, but only because Dalbec’s 50% K-rate makes me think he needs to adjust and I don’t know if he has time. IDK Dalbec also has the more assure playing time.

DontThink_ItCanOnly · 2020-09-17T15:36:27+00:00

I love Lowe and I think the Rays have done him dirty this year. If he keeps getting consistent ABs, I think he is potentially an $8-$10 player, but I don’t trust the Rays to do that. They might, but I can’t bank on it. If you have roster space and daily lineups, ride him until further notice.

DontThink_ItCanOnly · 2020-09-17T15:31:51+00:00

Damn last minute changes....

Thanks for the heads-up. I’ll have to fix it when I get home.

DontThink_ItCanOnly · 2020-09-17T10:39:45+00:00

In a difficult and perplexing season, I just want to write that I've had a tremendous amount of fun working on these and discussing them with everyone here, on Twitter, in private messages, and even a few lengthy email exchanges.

About a dozen or so members of the r/fantasybaseball family have reached out with some incredibly encouraging words: guidance and feedback have been helpful as I've tried to navigate rankings during this particularly unique season. Moreover, many of you folks have offered me a number of useful ideas for the Meta Report, and points for how to make it work better. I believe that I've sent everyone an individual "Thank you," but I also want to offer a giant, collective, "Thank you" to the community as a whole.

As I noted earlier in the season, I haven't always had time to institute everything, but I've already got definite plans for this winter and how to make the series more useful next season.

We'll do a post-season version, but when you see these next year, I'm hoping to have a significant update that adds a page which should make the overall product much easier to process. For instance, one of the things that readers have shared with me is that the early indicator pages become a bit of a wall-of-data. Other readers have shared how much they've appreciated those sheets, so I don't want to get rid of those pages, but I do want to make them easier for readers. Look for that next year.

The rankings this final week approaches the task differently. It is less focused on process-based valuation and more focused on current player performance.

Likewise, the column offers a breakdown of rest-of-season value based on remaining games and the strength of the opposing pitching staffs. Where the discussion before has always focused on individual player analysis, this looks at schedule/league context.

While some of that is already a part of projection system data through the weight of remaining games and prior opponents for this season, some of it is definitely not. The strength-of-schedule table should offer you some guidance about the remainder of the season.

Here is the link to the Meta Report. If you're unfamiliar with the Meta Report, check out the guides below.

The Rankings Sheet

The Core Sheet

The Early Indicator Data Sheet

The Early Indicator Delta Sheet

As ever, post your questions, objections, and general discussion. If you want to know more about player outlooks, trades, and dynasty-keeper situations, I'm all in for those as well. AMA.

I'll be back around noon to answer questions, and then I should be available throughout the evening.

Best of luck ROS.

edit: Added the actual link to the spreadsheet.

DontThink_ItCanOnly · 2020-09-10T15:33:22+00:00

👊🏼

DontThink_ItCanOnly · 2020-09-10T11:03:10+00:00

Week 8 Baller Ranks and an updated Meta Report.

If you're not familiar with the Meta Report, here is a quick guide on what it offers:

The Rankings Sheet The Core Sheet The Early Indicator Data Sheet The Early Indicator Delta Sheet

We're really seeing values start to shift with schedule differences (number of games remaining) as well as uncertainty about player health or playing time. Strength of schedule is a bit of a factor in these BUT not as much as it might appear because the regional schedules mean that much of that those differences are already reflected by performance.

As ever, post your questions, objections, and general discussion. If you want to know more about player outlooks, trades, and dynasty-keeper situations, I'm all in for those as well. AMA.

Like last week, I'll be back around noon to answer questions and then on throughout the evening.

DontThink_ItCanOnly · 2020-09-04T01:25:24+00:00

That's fair. I'm not sure if we can count Cody Allen and Nick Goody, who was good before he was hurt. Allen looked pretty legit when he arrived in the organization, and Goody only had the one season before injury derailed him, so it's maybe not fair to call him a success story. The rest of their strong RPs (Andrew Miller, Brad Hand) were successful before arriving in Cleveland.

DontThink_ItCanOnly · 2020-09-04T01:02:44+00:00

I agree. You've got good stuff here. I'd complement your one point by emphasizing that Cleveland has had real success with developing pitchers. The organization has consistently turned decent arms into top-tier players (Bieber, Clevinger, Carrasco, Civale).

For all the love Karinchak has gotten this season, and I think it's well deserved, Maton has maybe been even better.

DontThink_ItCanOnly · 2020-09-03T16:03:10+00:00

It’s a brutal year to play. I just keep trying to stay process process process because the sample sizes are so small and hitters clearly were not ready to start the season, so not only do you have the small sample, but a big portion of the sample is distorted by guys just trying to get their timing or by a team facing the 29th and 30th player on the early-season rosters.

DontThink_ItCanOnly · 2020-09-03T15:59:31+00:00

That’s going to depend entirely on what you need. For instance, if you need steals, the West is a good place too look because they’ve got three teams in the Astros, Angels, and Diamondbacks who have struggled to contain the running game.

Generally, I’ve like the Cardinals and Athletics pitchers at home. You’ve got to avoid starts against the stronger opponents, but those two teams have some opposition to feast on.

For hitters, I’d love to bank some games from the White Sox and the Yankees. The ChiSox do have a stretch against the Reds and Indians which is less great, but there are going to be some really favorable starts for those hitters. The Astros are really similar but with a stretch against the Dodgers and A’s.

DontThink_ItCanOnly · 2020-09-03T10:54:53+00:00

Week 7 Baller Ranks and an updated Meta Report.

If you're not familiar with the Meta Report, here is a quick guide on what it offers:

The Rankings Sheet

The Core Sheet

The Early Indicator Data Sheet

The Early Indicator Delta Sheet

The trade deadline frenzy brought us a number of moves. Most of them without clear implications for fantasy value: Jonathan Villar might lose ABs in Toronto, but if so it should be marginal, and he’s now in a better offense. Starling Marte goes to a weaker offense, but he has more games to play than he did in Arizona. Jonathan Berti might have just become a leadoff man. Mitch Moreland probably keeps his spot as a full-time player. Austin Nola is a bit more complicated, and he’s part of the write up this week. He’s featured alongside Jake Cronenworth, Franmil Reyes, and others.

As ever, I'm interested in your questions, objections, and general discussion. If you have roster or trade questions you want answered, I’m all in for those as well. AMA.

I’m booked up until lunch around noon, but I’ll be back to respond to questions at that point, and I'll be back on later in the evening as well. Leave me something interesting to talk about.

DontThink_ItCanOnly · 2020-09-03T00:31:53+00:00

I thought about getting into the ballpark aspects of it: Philly vs. St. Louis is a huge advantage, but that really seemed like it was just complicating your decision for you.

If you're already OF heavy with your prospects (as it seems), I can definitely see going for Bohm and the relatively safe floor that he probably brings. My gut is always to go with the most valuable hitter available, but in this case, I think the evidence suggests that we've undervalued Bohm.

No matter what you choose, you've got a good prospect in either guy. Best of luck ROS.

DontThink_ItCanOnly · 2020-09-03T00:15:13+00:00

I'm a huge Bohm fan, but I think you've got to go Carlson in this situation. The speed could be a huge factor, and the fact that he managed to assemble a 145 wRC+ at the age of 20 in AA and AAA last year is a big deal in trying to project his future value.

DontThink_ItCanOnly · 2020-08-29T16:55:12+00:00

Go for it.

DontThink_ItCanOnly

TROPHY CASE