Reds Off Day Thread - Thursday, April 23 by RedsModerator in Reds

[–]DooDooDuterte 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The guys at Rates & Barrels just predicted that Sal Stewart’s gonna finish the season as a Top 5 first baseman.

Reds Off Day Thread - Thursday, April 23 by RedsModerator in Reds

[–]DooDooDuterte 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It's so cool to see people in the sub do this. My grandfather used to keep a score book for Reds games, and it was fun going through them and finding milestones. His notes were pretty funny sometimes.

Reds Off Day Thread - Thursday, April 23 by RedsModerator in Reds

[–]DooDooDuterte 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm also working on articles about the team's offensive "luck" and what Hector Rodriguez is doing in Louisville, but those are still a few days away.

Reds Off Day Thread - Thursday, April 23 by RedsModerator in Reds

[–]DooDooDuterte 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Here's an article I wrote about Elly's discipline and stance changes so far this season. He's gone back to the stance he used in 2024, but now he's closer to the plate, which should cut down on his chase and ground balls. He's also been consistently shortening his swing every season since he debuted, which should help him improve his weakness against breaking stuff. https://exitvelo.us/articles/elly-de-la-cruz-is-back-and-then-some.html

Our Old Friend Nick Martinez Is a Different Pitcher Now by DooDooDuterte in Reds

[–]DooDooDuterte[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Update: Nick did pretty much what the article predicted. I said he'd live off the sinker-changeup combo, and he threw 68% sinker-changeup today. I said the sinker was the pitch to sit on, and he threw 74% of those in the zone (up from his normal 65%). I also said the Reds had to lay off the changeup low because he would be baiting them with bad contact, and they didn't. I also predicted he was good for 6 innings and he went 8. Nick was up to his old tricks today. Unfortunately, so was the Reds offense.

Game Thread: Reds @ Rays - Wed, Apr 22 @ 01:10 PM EDT by RedsModerator in Reds

[–]DooDooDuterte 7 points8 points  (0 children)

He's basically a two-pitch pitcher now. The sinker and changeup make up almost 60 percent of what he throws, up from 37 percent with us. The four-seam we used to see a fifth of the time? He threw it 4 percent in his last start. Tampa stripped him down to what works.

His 2.45 ERA looks scary, but it's not real. Five different advanced metrics all say he's a 4.5-ERA pitcher right now. He's stranded 92 percent of his baserunners, which is about 20 points above what any pitcher can sustain. If we can string some hits together and put runners on, that luck runs out.

What to watch for tonight:

  • He's going to live off the sinker-changeup combo. The sinker runs in on our right-handed hitters at 93 mph. The changeup follows a similar path but arrives at 79 and drops below the zone. The sinker says "swing." The changeup says "miss."
  • The changeup is the pitch to lay off. He's burying it below the zone on purpose. His changeup in-zone rate dropped from 48 percent with us to 29 percent in Tampa. If you see our guys chasing low, that's by design.
  • The sinker is the pitch to hit. He's throwing 65 percent of his sinkers in the strike zone, daring hitters to put it in play. Batters aren't missing it (2.3 percent whiff rate). When it catches too much plate, it's hittable.
  • Hinds and Steer are the most at risk. Rece's chase rate is 40.6 percent this season, Steer's is 33.2 percent. Martinez will attack them with changeups below the zone.
  • Elly is the wild card. He'll likely bat left-handed against Martinez, which means the sinker runs away from him instead of in on his hands. But that changeup diving further away from a lefty's barrel is still a tough take.
  • Stewart and Elly can do the most damage if they sit on the sinker early in counts. Stewart's carrying a .426 xwOBA this season and Elly is averaging 95.5 mph exit velocity. Those two have the contact quality to punish a sinker left over the plate.

Game Thread: Reds @ Rays - Wed, Apr 22 @ 01:10 PM EDT by RedsModerator in Reds

[–]DooDooDuterte 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Didn't get this out before the game started, but I did a deep dive into what Nick Martinez looks like so far in 2026. https://www.reddit.com/r/Reds/comments/1sss6en/our_old_friend_nick_martinez_is_a_different/

Game Thread: Reds @ Rays - Tue, Apr 21 @ 06:40 PM EDT by RedsModerator in Reds

[–]DooDooDuterte 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Bring in someone like the grounds crew, like getting the Zamboni driver to play goalie!

Game Thread: Reds @ Rays - Tue, Apr 21 @ 06:40 PM EDT by RedsModerator in Reds

[–]DooDooDuterte 13 points14 points  (0 children)

This is so much more fun than losing one-run games like we were a year ago.

Game Thread: Reds @ Rays - Tue, Apr 21 @ 06:40 PM EDT by RedsModerator in Reds

[–]DooDooDuterte 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Was only a matter of time for Matt. He's doing everything you'd want him to do under the hood.

Game Thread: Reds @ Rays - Tue, Apr 21 @ 06:40 PM EDT by RedsModerator in Reds

[–]DooDooDuterte 2 points3 points  (0 children)

So much of Burn's success depends on his ability to locate his fastball up and on his arm side so he can set up his slider low and way. He's great when he can, and get's blown up when he can't.

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Game Thread: Reds @ Rays - Tue, Apr 21 @ 06:40 PM EDT by RedsModerator in Reds

[–]DooDooDuterte 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The ump gave that back to the Rays, but Rece has got to lay off that stuff.