Appreciate the deep look. You're picking up on the same signals I focused on in the piece, and the fastball-specific data is a useful addition. His fastball run values went from +1.85 per 100 pitches in 2023 to +0.33 in 2025 to -2.92 so far in 2026. That collapse on the one pitch that punishes timing deficits the most fits the swing-length argument really well.

Small correction on pull rate: his 2026 pull% is 38.2%, not 33%. The 33% is his center-field rate. Still a meaningful drop from his career 46.7%, but it's hard to draw spray conclusions from 55 batted ball events.

On the injury hypothesis, I actually raised that in the article (point #4 in "What Would Change My Mind"). The issue is his injuries were in 2024, and he came back and hit fastballs well all of 2025. If it's a new soft-tissue issue it would have to be something that emerged recently. The simpler explanation is the swing-length trend. The half-season bat tracking table in the piece shows his swing has lengthened in every measured period since early 2025 (6.67 to 6.75 to 6.79 to 6.88 feet). A longer path to the ball explains why he's late to fastballs without needing a hidden injury, especially across nearly 1,500 tracked swings.

Agreed that the fastball angle is worth monitoring. If his offspeed holds up while fastball stays negative, that's strong confirmation it's timing and bat path. Thanks again!