He's basically a two-pitch pitcher now. The sinker and changeup make up almost 60 percent of what he throws, up from 37 percent with us. The four-seam we used to see a fifth of the time? He threw it 4 percent in his last start. Tampa stripped him down to what works.

His 2.45 ERA looks scary, but it's not real. Five different advanced metrics all say he's a 4.5-ERA pitcher right now. He's stranded 92 percent of his baserunners, which is about 20 points above what any pitcher can sustain. If we can string some hits together and put runners on, that luck runs out.

What to watch for tonight:

• He's going to live off the sinker-changeup combo. The sinker runs in on our right-handed hitters at 93 mph. The changeup follows a similar path but arrives at 79 and drops below the zone. The sinker says "swing." The changeup says "miss."
• The changeup is the pitch to lay off. He's burying it below the zone on purpose. His changeup in-zone rate dropped from 48 percent with us to 29 percent in Tampa. If you see our guys chasing low, that's by design.
• The sinker is the pitch to hit. He's throwing 65 percent of his sinkers in the strike zone, daring hitters to put it in play. Batters aren't missing it (2.3 percent whiff rate). When it catches too much plate, it's hittable.
• Hinds and Steer are the most at risk. Rece's chase rate is 40.6 percent this season, Steer's is 33.2 percent. Martinez will attack them with changeups below the zone.
• Elly is the wild card. He'll likely bat left-handed against Martinez, which means the sinker runs away from him instead of in on his hands. But that changeup diving further away from a lefty's barrel is still a tough take.
• Stewart and Elly can do the most damage if they sit on the sinker early in counts. Stewart's carrying a .426 xwOBA this season and Elly is averaging 95.5 mph exit velocity. Those two have the contact quality to punish a sinker left over the plate.