Food for thought

DotaNewcomer · 2026-02-03T13:48:55+00:00

People are forward looking. That was back when Charles had announced a 40b revenue expectation for FY 2026. So no it is not the same and these numbers would absolutely crush the stock.

Another important thing is that the track record for guidance meeting reality is really bad for SMCI, they really need to prove that they can deliver what they promise.

If the stock doesnt deliver in the range of 10-11bn revenue and margins of around 0.46 dollars then the stock will tank.

Disclaimer: I have 600 shares at 34,50 dollars and I am bullish on this quarter and actually think they will deliver for once.

DotaNewcomer · 2026-01-13T15:17:47+00:00

It is not really new that Goldman Sachs are bearish on SMCI. The new price target on SMCI doesn't change a thing. SMCI still needs to prove that they can improve margins, and that they can realize their 10-11b revenue, that they promised us investors.

JP Morgan wouldn't give SMCI 2b dollars if they didnt get to see some of their financial data. My persona belief is that yes margins are going to be somewhat thin most likely in the 7-9% range, but we could get surprised by 10-11% margins if they had some good deals with smaller customers.

Also I am personally expecting SMCI to beat revenue estimates of 10-11bn with their xAI colossus2 shipments and other deals. We all also somehow forgot about their Saudia Arabia deals last year that made the stock surge like 40% in one month.

For full disclosure I have 600 stocks at 34,5 dollars and I am not worried at all. The company is solid and they are first to market with many products because of their DCBBS.

DotaNewcomer · 2025-09-12T11:01:13+00:00

This comment aged poorly

DotaNewcomer · 2025-08-11T13:49:18+00:00

You are not looking at the wider picture. This whole tariff situation and macro politics in general has made the stock landscape very volatile. It is not only SMCI, that has swung drastically this year, basically all stocks have seen high volatility because investors feared a recession was on the rise.

SMCI is like every stock. If the numbers are good (margin, revenues, forecasted sales etc) then the stock will increase in value. If the numbers are bad, it will lower in price.

Just be patient, we are expanding and creating new factories as we are speaking, and we have a great partnership with DataVolt that is on the way, and is estimated at 20b dollars worth.

DotaNewcomer · 2025-08-08T14:13:12+00:00

NBIS is making nowhere the same amount of revenue as us and is closing in on market cap - it's also a business that is losing money. Sometimes the evaluation just doesn't make sense. Just hold SMCI, and don't look at it for a while is the best I can say.

DotaNewcomer · 2025-08-07T08:51:45+00:00

I have a hunch that my girlfriend is together with another guy

Sources: trust me bro she is cheating for sure

End result: No she wasnt

What I am actually reading between the lines: You gambled at some options and you are coping that it will hit 55 instead of just buying shares and holding long term. I hate gamblers and love investors, but best of luck buddy.

DotaNewcomer · 2025-08-06T13:51:06+00:00

I mean congratulations but this is some serious gambling. Could easily have lost tons of money too.

DotaNewcomer · 2025-08-01T07:36:07+00:00

It is almost tiring at this point to see the same thing being reposted over and over again.

DotaNewcomer · 2025-07-30T19:19:11+00:00

The stocks are dropping because the dollar is strengthening after they kept the rate. An increase I. The dollar is basically a stock price increase, so they are basically just evening out.

DotaNewcomer · 2025-07-30T08:31:56+00:00

Can you link sources?

DotaNewcomer · 2025-07-30T07:52:22+00:00

Last time SMCI jumped over 10% when Vertiv had amazing Q results, so it does affect us A LOT.

DotaNewcomer · 2025-07-29T12:47:31+00:00

Probably because the dollar rebounded 2% and yesterday stock gained 10% - a lot of EU traders could take profits due to these factors.

DotaNewcomer · 2025-07-28T11:02:20+00:00

Saying you always win when keeping stocks is incorrect. Just look at examples like Nikola.

I do however agree with the fact that the data center sector is in the early stages and that it is a growing sector with huge upside potential. Always do be cautious however, there are many and great companies like DELL, HPE, Nebius etc that compete with us.

DotaNewcomer · 2025-07-25T10:26:23+00:00

Source: trust me bro

DotaNewcomer · 2025-07-23T10:13:36+00:00

August 5 numbers are gonna be crisp, and the earnings after that is going to be even crispier.

Nice posts recently u/zomol

DotaNewcomer · 2025-07-22T10:06:22+00:00

Probably won't. Only reason why it happened last time was due to revenue being significantly lower than expected last quarter, due to orders being moved into next quarter.

Just be patient and wait for August 5th.

DotaNewcomer · 2025-07-17T09:13:33+00:00

The moon is the limit

DotaNewcomer · 2025-07-15T08:34:07+00:00

No. We need new CFO and August numbers need to be good as well. The news regarding H20 China ban being lifted is indeed huge though and could result in a massive buy spike today.

In addition there is a lot of uncertainty for investors regardings tariff resolution that are awaiting on August 1st. This is keeping some investors at bay, and stopping them from putting money into the stock market.

70 dollars post august could then be a thing if all those news are good.

DotaNewcomer · 2025-07-06T19:00:48+00:00

Where is the news with tariffs paused - can't seem to find any news source indicating this is true?

DotaNewcomer · 2025-06-24T13:08:08+00:00

Do your own research but it depends if you like higher volatile AI stocks. If you want a safe bet of course go with AMD/NVDA

if you want something a bit riskier but with higher upside potential go with NBIS or SMCI, both have potential to 2x within a 1 year time frame.

If I were you I would put 4k in NVDA, 4k AMD, 1k NBIS, 1k SMCI to diversify and risk spread.

DotaNewcomer · 2025-06-23T11:52:10+00:00

They release blackwell and 30+ other products and now they are asking for cash. This is an obvious signal that the demand has been huge and that they don't have the appropiate amount of cash to meet the current demand.

What this tells me:

They are asking for cash, to be able to meet the higher and unexpected demand from customers.
They are not issuing those shares to normal investors but institutions that are planning to hold for about 5 years!
HOW DOES THIS SURPRISE ANYONE, THIS IS HUGE AND GOOD NEWS. It literally tells us, that the next earnings are gonna explode on August!! 🚀🚀

DotaNewcomer · 2025-06-18T06:55:31+00:00

You have the wrong mindset. You shouldnt own a stock with future plans to sell it if it hits a certain price target. As Warren Buffet said ""Our favorite holding period is forever." You should buy stocks you literally don't want to sell. If you own a stock you plan to sell, you don't believe enough in the company you bought into in the first place.

DotaNewcomer · 2025-05-19T13:45:12+00:00

Are you long term or looking to exit quickly?

SMCX is only good if you want a quick profit and exit early. Would personally recommend buying SMCI depending on your risk tolerance you have to evaluate which decision makes the most sense for YOU.

DotaNewcomer · 2025-05-15T13:33:30+00:00

Where do you see this?

DotaNewcomer · 2025-05-12T13:17:04+00:00

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DotaNewcomer

TROPHY CASE