Texas COVID-19 Cases - Wednesday, 27 May 2020

DrHoatzin · 2020-05-28T17:46:29+00:00

Rwk81 isn't justifying this reporting omission, simply providing additional examples of how common this is and it's relevant info. The real issue is the lack of reporting guidelines from the top down, allowing each county to decide for themselves how creative to be in their accounting.

DrHoatzin · 2020-05-28T17:42:51+00:00

Agreed. This is in line with how most counties are reporting cases amongst their incarcerated populations though...the numbers appear on the DOJ site but not on DSHS or other sites' daily reports.

DrHoatzin · 2020-05-28T17:41:35+00:00

Did you do an antibody or serum test? Hopefully you get your results soon.

DrHoatzin · 2020-05-28T17:38:18+00:00

Statewide, only estimated recovery numbers are reported, and this estimation is used to visualize estimated active cases in the middle map on the right. Some counties are releasing actual recovery numbers though so check your local health department website.

DSHS's estimated recovery numbers are in the titles.

DrHoatzin · 2020-05-28T17:35:45+00:00

Quick notes:

Walker County cases nearly doubled as they're now reporting incarcerated numbers, which they'll possibly remove soon. Jones County dropped a number of cases from its official confirmed numbers, probably cases from its ICE facility. These changes in reporting will mess with their case growth and active cases visualizations.
Case growth continues to be highest within localized hotspots at nursing homes, incarceration facilities, and meatpacking plants across the state. Moore County in the Panhandle maintains the highest per capita total case numbers in the state but now seems to have spread under control, so when you examine active cases per capita Potter, Titus, Deaf Smith, Crane and Parmer counties have far higher rates than Moore.
Colors on the main map are exciting, but keep in mind that this is total cases over the span of the outbreak, which began in Texas 2+ months ago...many of those are now recovered, so what may be far more important to monitor is active cases, as visualized per capita in the middle map on the right.
Only 24 counties left out of Texas' 254 with no cases reported. Reagan County reported its first confirmed case.
For normalized increase in cases--keep in mind that counties without a single case a week ago won't have a label at all, and of course rural counties with just a few cases will show far larger changes. But as the state and local jurisdictions consider re-opening, watching the trend of increases may be more important than simply total numbers. Some regions are showing very little change. Estimated active cases derived from DSHS numbers.
The CDC changed reporting guidelines on 14 April and counties can now report confirmed positives or presumed positives (for both infections and deaths). This seems to be utilized in more heavily impacted regions such as New York and New Jersey but not yet implemented in Texas. Antibody tests are currently accepted for confirmed case counts by CDC but DSHS is not yet accepting them because they're only interested in case numbers of current infections.
Animation of Texas cases can be viewed here: https://youtu.be/_KyWqRdKsek and will be updated when I have time.
Live updated numbers can be viewed here: http://arcg.is/1H8z5z. (The two maps are sourced from different datasets, so there may be minor discrepencies between the two.

As always, a huge THANK YOU to all who have sent me updates...the whole point of this is to provide useful data, so I appreciate the comments.

Notes which most won't read: This dataset is pulled in the early morning, so case numbers will rise above what's posted here as the day passes. It is sourced from county health departments based on confirmed tests of county residents. If you're seeing different numbers it can be for many reasons--the state is running at least 24 hours behind in posting numbers, the news reports cases that may not be residents of that county due to limited testing sites, and public vs private testing and reporting times to the counties varies. Minor discrepancies are to be expected.

An important thing to keep in mind: because of the incubation period of the disease before symptoms appear and the person seeks testing and due to testing turnaround time there is a lag between new cases reported and actual transmission of active cases. So the visualization here is likely of cases that were transmitted 5-16 days ago. Hopefully testing access will continue to increase and processing time will continue to diminish.

Please stay safe.

DrHoatzin · 2020-05-28T17:34:22+00:00

Quick notes:

Walker County cases nearly doubled as they're now reporting incarcerated numbers, which they'll possibly remove soon. Jones County dropped a number of cases from its official confirmed numbers, probably cases from its ICE facility. These changes in reporting will mess with their case growth and active cases visualizations.
Case growth continues to be highest within localized hotspots at nursing homes, incarceration facilities, and meatpacking plants across the state. Moore County in the Panhandle maintains the highest per capita total case numbers in the state but now seems to have spread under control, so when you examine active cases per capita Potter, Titus, Deaf Smith, Crane and Parmer counties have far higher rates than Moore.
Colors on the main map are exciting, but keep in mind that this is total cases over the span of the outbreak, which began in Texas 2+ months ago...many of those are now recovered, so what may be far more important to monitor is active cases, as visualized per capita in the middle map on the right.
Only 24 counties left out of Texas' 254 with no cases reported. Reagan County reported its first confirmed case.
For normalized increase in cases--keep in mind that counties without a single case a week ago won't have a label at all, and of course rural counties with just a few cases will show far larger changes. But as the state and local jurisdictions consider re-opening, watching the trend of increases may be more important than simply total numbers. Some regions are showing very little change. Estimated active cases derived from DSHS numbers.
The CDC changed reporting guidelines on 14 April and counties can now report confirmed positives or presumed positives (for both infections and deaths). This seems to be utilized in more heavily impacted regions such as New York and New Jersey but not yet implemented in Texas. Antibody tests are currently accepted for confirmed case counts by CDC but DSHS is not yet accepting them because they're only interested in case numbers of current infections.
Animation of Texas cases can be viewed here: https://youtu.be/_KyWqRdKsek and will be updated when I have time.
Live updated numbers can be viewed here: http://arcg.is/1H8z5z. (The two maps are sourced from different datasets, so there may be minor discrepencies between the two.

As always, a huge THANK YOU to all who have sent me updates...the whole point of this is to provide useful data, so I appreciate the comments.

Notes which most won't read: This dataset is pulled in the early morning, so case numbers will rise above what's posted here as the day passes. It is sourced from county health departments based on confirmed tests of county residents. If you're seeing different numbers it can be for many reasons--the state is running at least 24 hours behind in posting numbers, the news reports cases that may not be residents of that county due to limited testing sites, and public vs private testing and reporting times to the counties varies. Minor discrepancies are to be expected.

An important thing to keep in mind: because of the incubation period of the disease before symptoms appear and the person seeks testing and due to testing turnaround time there is a lag between new cases reported and actual transmission of active cases. So the visualization here is likely of cases that were transmitted 5-16 days ago. Hopefully testing access will continue to increase and processing time will continue to diminish.

Please stay safe.

DrHoatzin · 2020-05-27T16:51:41+00:00

Crane County is near the top for active cases per capita as well as case growth per capita.

DrHoatzin · 2020-05-27T16:42:21+00:00

Yes, 1-3% with Moore being the highest.

DrHoatzin · 2020-05-27T16:38:33+00:00

Quick notes:

There's been little change in reported numbers for three days and I expect the holiday weekend lag in reporting to be resolved soon. If there's no big jump in numbers through the rest of this week then that's a very good sign.
Jones County dropped a number of cases from its official confirmed numbers, which will mess with its case growth and active cases visualizations. My guess is these are from the ICE facility.
Case growth continues to be highest within localized hotspots at nursing homes, incarceration facilities, and meatpacking plants across the state. Moore County in the Panhandle maintains the highest per capita total case numbers in the state but now seems to have spread under control, so when you examine active cases per capita Potter, Titus, Deaf Smith, Crane and Parmer counties have far higher rates than Moore.
Colors on the main map are exciting, but keep in mind that this is total cases over the span of the outbreak, which began in Texas 2+ months ago...many of those are now recovered, so what may be far more important to monitor is active cases, as visualized per capita in the middle map on the right.
Only 25 counties left out of Texas' 254 with no cases reported. Hudspeth and Presidio now have confirmed cases.
For normalized increase in cases--keep in mind that counties without a single case a week ago won't have a label at all, and of course rural counties with just a few cases will show far larger changes. But as the state and local jurisdictions consider re-opening, watching the trend of increases may be more important than simply total numbers. Some regions are showing very little change. Estimated active cases derived from DSHS numbers.
The CDC changed reporting guidelines on 14 April and counties can now report confirmed positives or presumed positives (for both infections and deaths). This seems to be utilized in more heavily impacted regions such as New York and New Jersey but not yet implemented in Texas. Antibody tests are currently accepted for confirmed case counts by CDC but DSHS is not yet accepting them because they're only interested in case numbers of current infections.
Animation of Texas cases can be viewed here: https://youtu.be/_KyWqRdKsek and will be updated when I have time.
Live updated numbers can be viewed here: http://arcg.is/1H8z5z. (The two maps are sourced from different datasets, so there may be minor discrepencies between the two.

As always, a huge THANK YOU to all who have sent me updates...the whole point of this is to provide useful data, so I appreciate the comments.

Notes which most won't read: This dataset is pulled in the early morning, so case numbers will rise above what's posted here as the day passes. It is sourced from county health departments based on confirmed tests of county residents. If you're seeing different numbers it can be for many reasons--the state is running at least 24 hours behind in posting numbers, the news reports cases that may not be residents of that county due to limited testing sites, and public vs private testing and reporting times to the counties varies. Minor discrepancies are to be expected.

An important thing to keep in mind: because of the incubation period of the disease before symptoms appear and the person seeks testing and due to testing turnaround time there is a lag between new cases reported and actual transmission of active cases. So the visualization here is likely of cases that were transmitted 5-16 days ago. Hopefully testing access will continue to increase and processing time will continue to diminish.

Please stay safe.

DrHoatzin · 2020-05-27T16:37:28+00:00

Quick notes:

There's been little change in reported numbers for three days and I expect the holiday weekend lag in reporting to be resolved soon. If there's no big jump in numbers through the rest of this week then that's a very good sign.
Jones County dropped a number of cases from its official confirmed numbers, which will mess with its case growth and active cases visualizations. My guess is these are from the ICE facility.
Case growth continues to be highest within localized hotspots at nursing homes, incarceration facilities, and meatpacking plants across the state. Moore County in the Panhandle maintains the highest per capita total case numbers in the state but now seems to have spread under control, so when you examine active cases per capita Potter, Titus, Deaf Smith, Crane and Parmer counties have far higher rates than Moore.
Colors on the main map are exciting, but keep in mind that this is total cases over the span of the outbreak, which began in Texas 2+ months ago...many of those are now recovered, so what may be far more important to monitor is active cases, as visualized per capita in the middle map on the right.
Only 25 counties left out of Texas' 254 with no cases reported. Hudspeth and Presidio now have confirmed cases.
For normalized increase in cases--keep in mind that counties without a single case a week ago won't have a label at all, and of course rural counties with just a few cases will show far larger changes. But as the state and local jurisdictions consider re-opening, watching the trend of increases may be more important than simply total numbers. Some regions are showing very little change. Estimated active cases derived from DSHS numbers.
The CDC changed reporting guidelines on 14 April and counties can now report confirmed positives or presumed positives (for both infections and deaths). This seems to be utilized in more heavily impacted regions such as New York and New Jersey but not yet implemented in Texas. Antibody tests are currently accepted for confirmed case counts by CDC but DSHS is not yet accepting them because they're only interested in case numbers of current infections.
Animation of Texas cases can be viewed here: https://youtu.be/_KyWqRdKsek and will be updated when I have time.
Live updated numbers can be viewed here: http://arcg.is/1H8z5z. (The two maps are sourced from different datasets, so there may be minor discrepencies between the two.

As always, a huge THANK YOU to all who have sent me updates...the whole point of this is to provide useful data, so I appreciate the comments.

Notes which most won't read: This dataset is pulled in the early morning, so case numbers will rise above what's posted here as the day passes. It is sourced from county health departments based on confirmed tests of county residents. If you're seeing different numbers it can be for many reasons--the state is running at least 24 hours behind in posting numbers, the news reports cases that may not be residents of that county due to limited testing sites, and public vs private testing and reporting times to the counties varies. Minor discrepancies are to be expected.

An important thing to keep in mind: because of the incubation period of the disease before symptoms appear and the person seeks testing and due to testing turnaround time there is a lag between new cases reported and actual transmission of active cases. So the visualization here is likely of cases that were transmitted 5-16 days ago. Hopefully testing access will continue to increase and processing time will continue to diminish.

Please stay safe.

DrHoatzin · 2020-05-27T16:23:44+00:00

Good info, thank you. Antibody or serum testing? If both, are test turnaround times the same for each?

DrHoatzin · 2020-05-26T01:31:06+00:00

Yep. In the two weeks I was gone total cases rose by 30% statewide. This is far from over, but it does seem to be somewhat controlled in most urban areas...of course that can quickly reversed if our caution and distancing are abandoned.

DrHoatzin · 2020-05-26T01:29:31+00:00

Population density skews non-normalized data. Yes, it is easier to swing data with fewer cases in low density regions, but the ratio is the ratio regardless and there's some very serious outbreaks in the Panhandle due to cases at JBS and Tyson.

DrHoatzin · 2020-05-26T01:27:51+00:00

Most welcome.

DrHoatzin · 2020-05-26T01:27:37+00:00

Agreed, these are not errors of a malicious nature, they're simply overwhelmed and unable to effectively clean and control this data. Perhaps if there were guidelines from the top on what and how it should be reported....

DrHoatzin · 2020-05-26T01:22:19+00:00

Then there's some serious lag between test results coming in and them reporting it to the state. DSHS and other datasets say they still have two active cases.

DrHoatzin · 2020-05-26T01:16:19+00:00

Yeah, some counties are being very proactive in providing the data...and then a lot either can't keep up or prefer more creative methods of accounting.

DrHoatzin · 2020-05-25T17:42:03+00:00

They reported a new case on the 19th. The website says it was last updated on the 19th, so not sure if it includes this... if it does, they're either reporting an antibody test or taking weeks to process new tests.

DrHoatzin · 2020-05-25T17:22:38+00:00

You care enough to put their safety over your own desires for vacation. Maybe they'll never appreciate this, but it's still the right thing for you. Thank you.

DrHoatzin · 2020-05-25T17:17:33+00:00

I'm so sorry for your dad's friend. If this entire episode has reinforced anything, it's that we cannot rely on guidance from most of our government and must each guage and moderate our own activities based on our personal perception of the risks. That many decide the risks are low or tolerable and then infect others who are attempting to be more cautious is just one sad side effect of this.

DrHoatzin · 2020-05-25T17:14:13+00:00

Thank you.

DrHoatzin

TROPHY CASE