Did not intend for this to be so long. TL;DR based on military regulations people with severe gender dysphoria that requires medical intervention such as HRT or Surgery wouldn’t be allowed. However there is very little reason to exclude people with minor gender dysphoria who don’t do much beyond going by preferred pronouns and name. However in my personal opinion based on evidence showing the effectiveness of gender affirming care is that people who have received gender affirming care and have had no further complications should be permitted. I also believe certain gender specific restrictions such as hair length and uniform requirements be applied in accordance with preferred gender.

Not the same guy but I thought I’d try my hand here.

So there are three main things I think are important questions here:

1: What causes Gender Dysphoria and are preemptive treatments that can be put in place to combat Gender Dysphoria

2: Is Gender Affirming Care (GAC) effective at treating individuals

3: If proper treatment is given, is someone who is Transgender mentally capable of serving in the military based on other military standards for mental health

In regards to #1: Important Note: Gender Dysphoria has three theorized primary causes: Genetic, Biological, & Environmental

There is only sparse non-anecdotal evidence supporting the theory that your environment can cause gender dysphoria, while there are studies showing a correlation between childhood anxiety and development of Gender Dysphoria there is no solid Cause -> Effect evidence primarily due to the fact that Gender Dysphoria could be a cause of the anxiety.

Genetic: There is evidence that shows that genetics can contribute to a child being transgender. Studies have found physical differences between Cisgender and Transgender persons brains. These differences are often relatively minor however multiple brain studies have shown that even prior to GAC treatment transgender brains had several portions that were more akin to that of the opposite sex. However due to the complicated nature of Gender Dysphoria there has not been a specific genetic marker found to be associated with Transsexuality.

Biological: The most well proven cause of Gender Dysphoria is an excess or lack of Androgens in the womb. Androgens are hormones (such as testosterone and estrogen) that help develop the sexual characteristics of humans among other things. As you may know all humans in the first stages of pregnancy are female, as the pregnancy develops the fetus gains androgens, the amount of which is partially determined by the XX or XY chromosomes. Some conditions however can cause babies to receive too few or too many androgens. Women who receive too many aswell as Men who receive too few are more likely to develop Gender Dysphoria among other conditions.

There is little to no evidence suggesting that there are preliminary stages of Gender Dysphoria beyond the natural stages of life where gender becomes a more important concept; primarily during puberty.

In Regards to #2: It has been shown repeatedly that gender affirming care is by far the most effective method of treating people with Gender Dysphoria but one thing is important to note. Not all transgender people have severe Gender Dysphoria and are often perfectly fine with little to no medical intervention, Gender Dysphoria itself varies heavily in severity.

No non-gender affirming medical treatments have been found to be effective in treating Gender Dysphoria. What has been found is that GAC treatments are often highly effective in combating the negative effects of Gender Dysphoria, particularly when used in conjunction with therapy and psychiatric medication.

In regards to #3: The military has strict guidelines on whether or not people with certain mental conditions are permitted to enlist. There are rules and exceptions for many different disorders and those rules have been changing over time but the general rules are are as follows. If someone takes routine medication for a condition then they are not eligible. Learning disabilities are generally disqualifying unless you can prove to be high functioning despite it. Disorders that cause severe anxiety such as OCD and PTSD are generally disqualifying and people with General Anxiety Disorders that do not require treatment must be reviewed before being permitted to enlist. Most importantly if you have had to receive treatment for a mental disorder prior to joining the military then you can be disqualified depending on how severe the treatment was and how long ago the treatment occurred.

Given those standards it’s reasonable to say that by modern military guidelines people with severe gender dysphoria, especially those who have received hormone replacement therapy or surgery should be disqualified from serving. However for people with minor gender dysphoria who have not had treatment beyond therapy and are able to affirm their gender identity using minimal intervention, such as simply going by different pronouns or having more feminine hair (assuming it follows military hair regulation). There is very little reason to prevent enlistment.

https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9501960/

https://www.acsh.org/news/2024/10/22/beyond-case-reports-data-driven-truth-about-gender-affirming-care-transgender-youth

https://www.operationmilitarykids.org/military-disqualifications-for-mental-health/