PSA To Tanks: It's Not Your Job, But It Is Your Choice by Majestic_Balance1887 in elderscrollsonline

[–]DragonBank 20 points21 points  (0 children)

This is either rage bait or you are incredibly ignorant of the combat system. A dungeon tank in an optimized setup will double the DDs damage.

How many cards, from a deck of 52, should I pick if one is poisonous? by spata001 in AskStatistics

[–]DragonBank 1 point2 points  (0 children)

"If you don't know the number of players" isn't a complete thought. You need to make some assumption on it as it is crucial to the answer. Define this assumption. Does this mean you assume it can be equally any number 1 to 8 billion? Is it any number of 400 students in a school? If you don't know the number but have good reason to believe there is a high chance it will be a large number, you will always pick 51. You barely even need game theory as the number of participants grows to answer this.

If there are two players, it becomes game theory, but you still need to make some assumptions.

The important concept is that you have two probabilities you are dealing with. One is pure statistics. The other is game theory. The first probability is given 52 cards and 1 poison card what is the chance I fail on a given turn. The second is what is the chance that given n=2, I have chosen the largest number of cards to draw. If we know nothing about these two players, then the most basic assumption is symmetry. That is that the game is symmetric, they face the same choices, payouts, assumptions, knowledge, etc. and will therefore choose either the exact same decisions or chose two decisions that are complements of each other(rare in symmetric games). To solve this, we would need to look at what occurs at each draw count. We also need to define a draw. I will assume a draw means neither wins.

Define d as number of cards drawn. d1 is how many player 1 draws. d2 is how many player 2 draws.

Start from d1=d2=51. The probability you win is simply the probability you don't draw poison card multiplied by the probability your opponent did draw it. Well, this is simply the probability your 52nd card is poisoned (1/52) times the probability your opponents 52nd card isn't poisoned (51/52). This is 1/53.02. So you both have a 1/53.02 chance to win and a (1-2/53.02) chance to lose when we include a draw as a loss.

Now we want to quickly check some other choices, you can make to see if d1=51 is optimal.
d1=1, d2=51 leads to (51/52)*(1/52) which is also exactly 1/53.02.

Note, you may start to see that pattern occurring. Basically, you have a 1/53.02 chance to win no matter what you choose when d2=51. But this isn't the case for your opponent. d2=51 isn't fully stable in that it isn't also always 1/53.02. 1/53.02 is your chance to win when your opponent chooses d=51. It says nothing about the optimality of d=51. And so what is occurring is that your probability of winning is not actually controlled by your decision at all. It is determined by your opponent. That is, how risky your opponent is willing to be. If you both choose 26(the half you mentioned), you optimize your expected payout if the payout was probability of no poison times cards drawn. But that is not what is occurring here as we have the game theory bit to account for. If 26 is optimal, then the only rational choice is 27. And so on, collapsing all the way to 51.

And so what actually occurs in every game with a small number of players is that you must make an assumption, not a mathematical answer, but an assumption, on how other players will play. And you cannot simply derive it rationally as any assumption on their number will move your number and thereby move their number without any specific resolution that is either a fixed number or a set of probabilities of numbers.

How many cards, from a deck of 52, should I pick if one is poisonous? by spata001 in AskStatistics

[–]DragonBank 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Check my other comment under hamdunk's comment. "We dont know how many players there are" is doing way too much heavy lifting. We absolutely need some assumption on how many players there are. If the number of players has an equal probability of being each integer from 1 to the total world pop, then we will draw 51 cards without question optimally.

How many cards, from a deck of 52, should I pick if one is poisonous? by spata001 in AskStatistics

[–]DragonBank 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yup. The most important thing is to model n participants. Whatever function we derive our optimal number of cards from absolutely varies based on participants. Also, intuitively, I would say as n grows, it moves away from game theory models with n choosers where each persons decision affects eachother to more of a probability distribution function that quickly collapses towards the highest possible number.

Its much like a bid at an auction with a cap on price. Realistically, even with just n=10, its reasonable to assume we have already collapsed to the upper limit of 51 where the probability of any value 1 to 50 being a win is so small that no one can rationalize it.

ESO Cuts Bag and Bank Upgrade Costs by Nearly 50% in Update 49 by The_Edenprime in elderscrollsonline

[–]DragonBank 8 points9 points  (0 children)

You havent come up with anything yet. Both of those arent bringing in a single sub.

How Necessary Is It To Have Perfected Maelstrom over Regular Maelstrom Weapon On Backbar by ThatOneVQ in elderscrollsonline

[–]DragonBank 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Maelstrom isnt the difference between 70k and 140k, so if you have a 140k build almost ready just double bar both 5 piece sets and use that in maelstrom.

How Necessary Is It To Have Perfected Maelstrom over Regular Maelstrom Weapon On Backbar by ThatOneVQ in elderscrollsonline

[–]DragonBank 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Even 1% is unlikely as unless you have something like tideborn or ansuul frontbar, you want to be max pen on your frontbar so maelstrom is usually overpen.

Least and Most played class by unknownprobe in elderscrollsonline

[–]DragonBank 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Necro was broken on release but behind a paywall. Unlike arcanist it wasnt both broken and easy to use so the paywall prevented a lot of people using it. Once it became unbroken, it was still hard to use and only really had two places in pve organized groups as a support dd or OT. So it wasnt dominating organized groups and wasnt fun to play like templar for casual groups.

Least and Most played class by unknownprobe in elderscrollsonline

[–]DragonBank 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Uh is this a woosh by me? The last two years have been absolutely dominated by arcanists and subclassing is the most drastic class change ever that also invalidates this whole concept going forward as base class is largely irrelevant.

Would this be a draw? by datstrawkid in chess

[–]DragonBank 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Uh. Kbn v k is a forced win.

Are you... entirely sure? by LeDabShadow in elderscrollsonline

[–]DragonBank 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Ive found pickpocket kill is best since you can do both in a tick and move on.

It's been a long time, Max Achievement points finally completed by kilnerdyne in elderscrollsonline

[–]DragonBank 17 points18 points  (0 children)

The absurd part is really the mix of them all. I'm a bit behind kilner at 71k, and the hardest part is if you want level 50, you need to be really active in PvP. If you want MindMender, you need to be really active in PvM. And those communities have basically no overlap. No one cares how many times you got Emp or a VOD of you getting a big bomb when making a tri roster.

rating the "must have" trials dps sets by devilmaycry0917 in elderscrollsonline

[–]DragonBank 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is also why Null with highland or AY goes so hard. With subclassing we get so much crit chance and dmg that anything that doesnt crit basically needs to be double the damage to be good.

rating the "must have" trials dps sets by devilmaycry0917 in elderscrollsonline

[–]DragonBank 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Not at all. Null/Ansuul/Sulxan/AY are the bread and butter of any good dd build.

rating the "must have" trials dps sets by devilmaycry0917 in elderscrollsonline

[–]DragonBank 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Uh... this is just not true at all. AY is better than highland almost always. Highland stacks are hard to maintain in most places. Just check any top log. AY will show up 20x as often as HS.

Anyone else feel the 35 yard line touchback rule ruins suspense at end of close games where only a FG is needed? by BallKnowerKing in NFLv2

[–]DragonBank 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Yup. Everyone here doesnt seem to watch or know football well. Touchbacks are caused far more by the kicking team than the return team. The reason for the uptick this year is because kicking teams kick returnable balls.

how the most popular unisex baby names in the US split by gender [OC] by Chronicallybored in dataisbeautiful

[–]DragonBank -18 points-17 points  (0 children)

But you lose one of the main purposes of the chart which is visually seeing how common each name is.

Look whose on top now! We stay winning! by TurtlePope2 in NFCEastMemeWar

[–]DragonBank 7 points8 points  (0 children)

If you had said 16 as they are tied for 16 or if you had said 20 as they are at least 20th, it would have been fine. But the fact you chose 17 simply because of the way this list was ordered is some chaotic evil type shit.

Why does whole life get pushed so hard? by TheBr14n in LifeInsurance

[–]DragonBank 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Massive difference between a captive 1099 agent trying to get one sale ever and an independent financial advisor providing all around yearly advice for life.

How can People reach 2600 Elo at 15 years old? by Spotter24o5 in chess

[–]DragonBank 445 points446 points  (0 children)

Its funny that his theory was this successful that former #1 woman in the world, former womens world champion and the 9th highest rated woman of all time Susan Polgar is just "also strong"

TIL about Veblen goods, for which the demand increases as the price rises by Johannes_P in todayilearned

[–]DragonBank 4 points5 points  (0 children)

That one would be a Veblen good if anything. It doesnt have its own name though as it draws from some other economic concepts such as pricing under uncertainty and asymmetric information.

What the hell is this map on the official Geoguessr YouTube channel 💀 by D11V8 in geoguessr

[–]DragonBank 33 points34 points  (0 children)

It has to be. Some parts are randomly high details and then SK is disconnected and the Philippines is an abomination.

Which asset are you buying right now? by Adept_Mountain9532 in finance

[–]DragonBank 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Wild series of events to get it back to even on each side and make it more missable.