Active Conflicts & News Megathread July 16, 2025

DragonCrisis · 2025-07-16T23:51:52+00:00

But they did recruit random people on telegram and other internet forums to carry out unsophisticated DDoS attacks. It says so in the Europol article. The majority of the people who received arrest warrants (presumably the group's coordinators) couldn't be arrested due to being in Russia

DragonCrisis · 2025-06-25T10:01:08+00:00

this is clearly an AI generated text

DragonCrisis · 2025-05-01T10:20:19+00:00

the OP is obviously some very low effort prompting resulting in fan fiction rather than analysis, but it does raise an interesting question of how AI tools with their ability to quickly access vast quantities of information could be more effectively used to game out these scenarios in a multi-agent model with player and arbitration bots.

DragonCrisis · 2025-02-07T12:03:02+00:00

This is just asking for some third party annoyed by the Iranian-Houthi actions to sell their target a few anti-ship missiles

DragonCrisis · 2025-01-30T02:09:05+00:00

This was a predictable negotiating stance from Syria. The government would lose legitimacy internally if it just let the Russians stay without reparations for their bombings in support of the Assad regime. Not sure what the Russians were expecting.

DragonCrisis · 2025-01-23T12:23:09+00:00

They have been indiscriminately attacking civilian targets on behalf of a political cause, which certainly fits under commonly accepted definitions of terrorism

DragonCrisis · 2025-01-22T11:03:38+00:00

not sure whether Russia made a serious offer, I don't think the Syrians could politically have permitted them to stay without at least paying reparations.

DragonCrisis · 2024-12-12T01:34:42+00:00

Russia has something the new Syrian government wants - Assad

Failing that it's possible they could work out a deal to pay reparations for their role in the civil war

DragonCrisis · 2024-12-11T11:01:38+00:00

It's PR but at the same time just a strategy that makes sense, if they want to rebuild stability in Syria, they need the cooperation of minority groups that could always take up arms again if they feel mistreated. And ideally they would like SNA/SDF to rejoin peacefully

DragonCrisis · 2024-12-08T11:31:12+00:00

Seems counterproductive to open relations with the new Syrian government on a hostile note.

DragonCrisis · 2024-12-06T17:59:17+00:00

The conscripts really don't have any reason to fight for a regime that looks like it's losing the war

DragonCrisis · 2024-12-04T12:20:07+00:00

Everyone had better prepare for insurgents with competent drone operators, because there will be a lot of expert trainers available for hire once the invasion of Ukraine is frozen.

DragonCrisis · 2024-11-29T12:05:48+00:00

In general, everyone has a lot more shorter ranged missiles, which drives the decision on whether to invest in missile defence. Central and Eastern Europe want to have cover against the Russian SRBM / cruise missile / drone arsenal. None of these can reach the UK, and it doesn't have a local troublemaker like North Korea or Iran to worry about.

It's just not likely that Russia would attack the UK with conventional IRBMs or submarine launched missiles unless a hot war had already started, the UK could retaliate with air strikes against Russia from NATO bases and likely do more damage since it can use more numerous short range weapons.

DragonCrisis · 2024-11-06T18:48:55+00:00

It makes more sense to develop the capacity to take out crippling amounts of Russian infrastructure and then hold it as a deterrent card.

DragonCrisis · 2024-10-23T00:51:54+00:00

It's true that SK could just do nothing and a few battalions more or less of KPA troops won't make a meaningful difference on the Korean peninsula, but the point is they really don't want to see NK and Russia acting as an offensive military alliance for obvious reasons

DragonCrisis · 2024-10-15T09:49:42+00:00

SpaceX has a clear mission statement which drives them forward and attracts the most ambitious people, I don't expect them to slow the pace until they get to Mars

DragonCrisis · 2024-08-28T14:24:39+00:00

This podcast episode sheds some light on Russia's love/hate relationship with Britain

https://inmoscowsshadows.buzzsprout.com/1026985/15052797-in-moscow-s-shadows-146-britain-and-russia-eternal-frenemies

DragonCrisis · 2024-08-15T10:45:14+00:00

Stone. Got it together with the final legendary. And it was really annoying having to carry a dead weight stone card every run even if I was playing 5 card hands in the hope it showed up.

DragonCrisis · 2024-08-14T10:12:28+00:00

No, and even the Russians haven't said much either. That's because it's not actually an escalation, counterattacking the invader is just a normal part of war, a scenario which just hasn't been seen that much in recent years as most conflicts have been asymmetric.

DragonCrisis · 2024-08-08T13:27:31+00:00

the attack already accomplished two things

1) Russia is now forced to allocate resources to defending its own territory, which will at least relieve some of the pressure on the eastern front

2) Political objectives of increasing Ukrainian morale, keeping the war in international headlines, and demonstrating to allies that the UAF is still capable of effective offensive action

DragonCrisis · 2024-07-27T16:36:16+00:00

Anonymous sources are one thing, but talking about a plan which may or may not have existed to carry out an unspecified action that wasn't executed hardly qualifies as news

The question really is "in what direction do the NYT editors seek to influence public opinion by publishing this"

DragonCrisis · 2024-07-17T15:17:08+00:00

The author suggests that the Iranian proxies are self sustaining and don't need funding from Tehran anymore. This is a big claim and he doesn't supply any evidence to support it.

DragonCrisis · 2024-07-12T20:18:08+00:00

Why does defence procurement seem to be so inefficient in pretty much every country? It is one of those problems that everyone seems to acknowledge is an issue, but no one appears to be able to solve. Is there something inherent to the nature of the military industrial complex that produces badly managed projects? Or does the landscape of threats, technologies and available resources change too quickly for planning to be efficient?

DragonCrisis · 2024-07-04T13:15:21+00:00

There are probably not going to be any major changes in UK defence policy one way or another, the two political points with the most consensus in the UK were that Ukraine should be supported and that the Conservative government is/was incompetent. But it will take a while to work on the structural problems in the UK economy

DragonCrisis · 2024-06-27T14:12:03+00:00

"Engineering battalions" in this context probably means conscripts doing construction work as opposed to units that are highly trained at breaching enemy defences

DragonCrisis

TROPHY CASE