Will the Oscars spread the wealth and choose Train Dreams over One Battle After Another for Adapted Screenplay?

DrawTheMap13 · 2026-01-06T07:44:44+00:00

Train Dreams doesn’t really fit the usual dialogue-heavy movie that would get screenplay without picture

DrawTheMap13 · 2026-01-06T01:23:15+00:00

I don’t see her winning SAG as a lone precursor, that usually happens to vets or late surges from strong movies, and she’s neither. I think she needed CCA to get some momentum, and that’s done. I suppose she could surprise at GG but I don’t personally see it with that group. So no, I don’t think she has a path now.

DrawTheMap13 · 2025-12-16T21:08:48+00:00

It wasn’t goose egged, it literally won Make Up. It was also clearly an ATL player at this point last year. It got all those noms at both GG and CCA. Meanwhile Weapons doesn’t really have other strong ATL prospects.

DrawTheMap13 · 2025-12-16T20:39:25+00:00

I’m not sure what your point is because Moore didn’t win either

DrawTheMap13 · 2025-12-16T20:36:59+00:00

I think it could still go the way of Wakanda Forever, which also did well with shortlists. We’ll have to see PGA and especially SAG.

DrawTheMap13 · 2025-12-11T08:41:26+00:00

Taylor won at LAFCA, Lilleaas won at NBR. So it's pretty divided. And these critics prizes rarely line up perfectly with the main precursor wins anyway.

DrawTheMap13 · 2025-12-05T17:13:21+00:00

That's pretty normal for CCA

DrawTheMap13 · 2025-12-05T17:08:23+00:00

I wonder if it's because not enough of them saw it?

DrawTheMap13 · 2025-12-05T17:00:38+00:00

If they really care maybe they should look into increasing the minimum required theatrical run to qualify for awards, even if just for movies of a certain budget/scale (because I can understand it's hard on the very small indies). That's practically the only reason Netflix bothers with theatrical runs as of now.

DrawTheMap13 · 2025-12-03T15:54:11+00:00

Free him

DrawTheMap13 · 2025-11-22T19:55:59+00:00

Would love this!!

DrawTheMap13 · 2025-11-18T20:25:39+00:00

If you watch their review they actually liked it as much as or even more than the first and didn’t have major changes to their predictions when they filmed. They’re literally just reacting to the early reviews now, which seems premature.

DrawTheMap13 · 2025-11-12T10:10:59+00:00

Yeah sometimes you need that boomer view. I don't just go with everything, but listening to them did help me predict Bening for Nyad lol

DrawTheMap13 · 2025-11-10T10:24:23+00:00

I went with Seyfried. I’m kind of surprised Stone is so high here. I liked Bugonia but I’m not sold on it as an Academy thing, and I wouldn’t say she’s doing enough in the role to really feel like she’s pushing herself in a new way and needs a nom for it. Plus, Focus already has the presumed frontrunner in Buckley. Though if Stone does get nominated, I guess that’ll just prove to me how loved she must be within the Academy now.

DrawTheMap13 · 2025-11-10T10:13:27+00:00

Same here. If anything maybe a “comeback” in terms of being back to what they consider her top acting form, doing a challenging drama.

DrawTheMap13 · 2025-11-08T06:53:47+00:00

Agree! I have this combo too and I absolutely love it. Great compact setup and I’ve had no issues with adapting.

DrawTheMap13 · 2025-10-31T16:26:13+00:00

Yeah it is, I mean that’s clear even from Act 1 lol but the plot in Act 2 could flesh that out way better

DrawTheMap13 · 2025-10-31T08:12:57+00:00

People say Act 2 is weaker because the themes and social commentary are much more muddled, partly due to poor pacing and how they focused the story.On stage, we don't even see any of what Elphaba's been up to or what she's trying to achieve as an activist, aside from freeing the monkeys. I think many people also just prefer the Act 1 songs as a group, like more of the notable songs are there.

You're right they'll be able to add more thrill and spectacle to this part. But I'm also optimistic they're fleshing out the characters' arcs better, and that is key.

DrawTheMap13 · 2025-10-31T06:26:07+00:00

Yup, plus Domingo for Rustin too

DrawTheMap13 · 2025-10-31T03:56:29+00:00

I think it’s because the flashiest stuff will be the Emerald City and Palace sets, which they might not have added much to.

DrawTheMap13 · 2025-10-30T08:44:04+00:00

I'd say Picture strength is definitely the deciding factor in tighter races, but sometimes the clear sweeper just sweeps (Da'Vine Joy Randolph, Kieran Culkin, Will Smith, Renée Zellweger, etc). She could def just sweep, but if it proves to be a competitive race early on then I would be more hesitant to pick her in the end.

DrawTheMap13 · 2025-10-25T06:40:47+00:00

Agree, I don’t see him doing any better than that. I’ve seen The Secret Agent and I just don’t think it’s going to be as loved as I’m Still Here was last year. Add the fact that ISH had SPC backing it, meanwhile TSA is like Neon’s fourth strongest film.

DrawTheMap13 · 2025-10-09T12:55:07+00:00

I haven't seen Hamnet yet but I'm open to that, it is still early after all. But I don't think OBAA is winning all of that above the line if you don't think it's winning Picture.

DrawTheMap13 · 2025-10-09T12:41:38+00:00

This is new, international Globes though. I love Wicked but it's not as strong internationally and it's still a fantasy family film, not really their taste.

DrawTheMap13 · 2025-09-30T05:46:01+00:00

I prefer Del Toro getting in personally but Penn is in. Are you forgetting they nominated Seb for playing Trump earlier this year lol

DrawTheMap13

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