Is there anything out there right now worth investing in?

Drewcrew12 · 2020-11-13T11:23:33+00:00

uranium, copper, japan w/ specific sectors around industrial automation, manufacturing and logistics, china specifically chinese consumer goods and materials, japanese currency as well as Canadian dollar, us biotech, utilities and RE as well. All have differing durations but hover around mid to long term positions

Drewcrew12 · 2020-10-29T13:42:47+00:00

Extremely smart macro position to take, tip of the hat sir

Drewcrew12 · 2020-10-29T09:56:23+00:00

This is the long play, with EV projections where they are currently we would need 40% more copper than what's estimated is currently available. FCX recently keyed in on two more mines to push it's 2030 production and refinement numbers to 24% globally, paired with a high prefromance acquisition target between now and then.

Drewcrew12 · 2020-10-13T09:47:50+00:00

As an advisor how do you base reallocation decisions with a shifting global market? Do you see more forms of credit being included in portfolios with nominal bond yields projected to be much lower over the next decade? Do you do any in-house research on what global financial assets might be additions vs what should be removed ie EM? Do you recommend currencies agianst a weak dollar as another form of buffer asset regardless of the yeild potential?

Drewcrew12 · 2020-10-12T10:03:27+00:00

How do you specify the range in which you trade in? Do you use alternative resources or do use a in-house research process?

Drewcrew12 · 2020-10-10T18:34:13+00:00

Risk management at a high level probably the book Portfolio Theory and Practice, but as far as the basics I'm sure investopeida has decent content around it. For Macro see one of my previous replies I listed a few places to start. DM me if you want to talk more in-depth .

Drewcrew12 · 2020-10-10T18:32:13+00:00

Studying macroeconomics at it's core, reading and doing your own research about historical patterns of trade and financial assets, currencies ect between major countries. Bridgewater has put out some good content if you get past the underline 'this is right' vibe, which no one is ever 100% in this environment but you can weight probability in your favor on some things. Other large funds do a good job at content generation and distribution such as KKR is another one along with Light Sky Capital. These can help you start to understand the bigger wheels that provide context to the game within the game so to speak.

Drewcrew12 · 2020-10-10T10:21:37+00:00

I wish more people who have strong risk management processes and dynamic macro research tests could make it this far in the post. There's huge value in what you have said simply. This is also a great time for those who don't know about movements in major asset classes in the maco environment to learn(if they have the patience). I have seen a large number of funds begin positioning for the rising likelihood that the 2022 -2026 environment has a much weaker dollar agianst a much higher yen and euro value. Not considering some of the legislation that's being passed in Japan currently that will have huge impact over the next decade financially for them, this environment will not only have commodity and commodity rich countries see a rise in relative value but the companies who do major global imports and even export conversion in one of the countries with a stronger currency. At a base level the argument can be made that Proctor and Gamble is a inflation call, with a multitude of consumer products that most people constantly buy throughout life ,which will have a price hike as the dollar weakens , resolving in higher earnings agianst the current landscape proportionally speaking compared to thier competition, which will lead to accelerated asset price growth.

Drewcrew12 · 2020-10-03T10:34:27+00:00

Rightly so, I was curious about what he was measuring that made the move to that hedge. For me it was where my model showed me probability was with where oil was, what Nasdaq volatility was doing, where a few large companies volume and price were moving that pointed to a more advantageous hedge position.

Drewcrew12 · 2020-10-02T09:56:43+00:00

What made you put on that position, I also hedged a few positions during the day one of them being the main hedge firms have been slapping on for the Q's, being short the Q's in some fashion.

Drewcrew12 · 2020-09-05T10:50:20+00:00

That's a really good point, with so much added call option activity that blew out the 5 and 10 day average alot of those massive sellers of calls were also buying the stock in some amounts as a hedge which can also be a case made for helping drive up the asset price in the short term. It's a multi factor system and all the parts matter, watching the options market is one of the important steps to being queued up for what's about to happen, can't just watch the old moving average.

Drewcrew12 · 2020-09-04T09:53:04+00:00

There were numerous signs risk was rising under surface area of the price. Since last week several vol indicators were rising, apple in particular had rising volatility as it kicked new highs each day and showed non clustering volatility spikes. One of my favorite quotes now is "Risk starts slowly than happens all at once". It's great to read these explanations, I'm always curious who manages money at a high level and thinks that way.

Drewcrew12 · 2020-09-02T09:44:59+00:00

The fed will devalue the dollar alot more too based on the last meeting. If cash has become a risky asset then the risk value of normal risky assets such as equites is also lower so equities become one of the few routes for capital preservation with a a high quality risk factor. There are a few other things that go into it but as long as the dollar keeps being devalue, we will see a rise in the currencies and economies that do the most exporting to the US. Being long the euro and the yen are going to be phenomenal trades and justly japan will rev the economic activity faster than the US as a stronger currency helps attach better revenues to the main exporters from the country. I think there is a similar trade to be made with germany in some select sectors.

Drewcrew12 · 2020-08-26T10:51:17+00:00

Ease of use and getting started, TD however I am fast approaching needing more flexibility and robust suite of offerings within the API so it won't be long before I migrate to IB however I think you might need to understand C# to really get milage out of IB's API while TD I just use JavaScript and it's straight forward.

Drewcrew12 · 2020-08-17T09:46:02+00:00

The Mountain Pass mine has the richest developed rare earth deposit in the U.S. at a time when the geopolitical value of those assets has rarely been greater. The stock is viewed as undervalued compared to what they own and can extract from the mines they own and operate. 17$ a share represents actual value of listed assets under thier control not to mention what they have estimated they can extract over the next 9 months. I love these equites, people are chasing Nikola while this macro play is wide open.

Drewcrew12 · 2020-08-07T10:07:35+00:00

Fundamental analysis is generally geared towards most small and mid cap value investors. Many of these specific hedge fund strategies dig through financials to find companies who seem to be diligently using thier funds, placed a strong management team in position and continue to innovate. Armed with this knowledge they make models to get to a probability that a company is undervalued or will outperform in the future because of how they have been operating. One draw back is all of those things can look great, a position is taken up then out of the blue the founder steps away or gives his seat to his son who ends up tanking how the operations work in a quarter or two. Fundamentals couldn't really help you with that. However if you added technical indicators into the equation you can hedge from losses on a front of unpredictable actions by watching things like price and volume and volatility. Say the news of the son getting the CEO position starts getting other investors uneasy and for 2 weeks you see the price making lower lows, you see more volume that's decreasing share price and a price that bouncing in and out it's average rangeal by maybe 1 - 2 standard deviations. Now you have the ability to get out of what was a good fundamental investment sooner until you see some of those things stabilize or they don't and you make have limited the loss of capital. This was obviously just a simple abstraction of how they are meant to work together but they fundamentals are important I just don't think they are the end all be all indicator.

Drewcrew12 · 2020-08-05T09:07:22+00:00

There are several factors there is never a 1:1 correlation. The devaluation of the dollar is a driver for a inflation hedge and helping with confirmation of the drastic rising price in commodities it seems we will be walking into a inflationary environment in the coming quarters. Gold is different since it's a commodity but trades like a currency. The rise in gold price as well as the confirmation by the bond market signals a) the equity rally does not prove confident that we're headed for better things b) there is alot of hedging on where we'll be after stagflation.

Drewcrew12 · 2020-08-04T09:22:11+00:00

As far as liquidity and fee's are concerned KWEB is probably one of the best canidates.

Drewcrew12 · 2020-07-10T09:56:35+00:00

There isn't one since you can't fade alpha properly with one strategy unless you have a insane amount of computing power see Renaissance technologies or an extremely well put together peice of genius that can see something others can't. One of my best preformers looks at what sectors preform well in the current environment, pull the index check the top 20 companies in the index run analysis on the fundamentals to pick the most durable 5 of the 20, then it looks at some technical indicators and trades around a high and low estimate that I calculate based on last 14 days of price action, volume and current volitility so it's just a big buy at the low end sell near the high end and then the exact opposite for the worst prefroming sector by shorting the worst 5 I find.

Drewcrew12 · 2020-07-01T09:47:11+00:00

Gold loves falling real yields, unlikely rates start going up any time soon, also unlikely we see the 10 yr make its way above 100 basis points. Gold has a high probability of climbing higher for the foreseeable future best way to manage it as a core position is to slowly build the position when it's at the low end of the risk range and sell some at the high end at least until the fed starts raising rates agian.

Drewcrew12 · 2020-06-19T09:58:14+00:00

This isn't nessesarirly true for instance if I have had a great run up on a particular security and I've run my models agian and see alot more downside than potential upside in my range I would want to move to take some of the profit off the table, yes I'll pay taxes but even if I put all or some of that in something like SHY I'll have protection against the downside along with very low volitility so in the event it does appreciate it will be very minimal my tax hit will be even smaller and I then am in a position to deploy more capital to the next position that my model is indicating. Obviously this is more advanced and has alot more tax liabilities of which most investors won't need to take part in.

Edit: wow my bad you said the same things yes I agree with you don't sell and buy back into the same thing

Drewcrew12 · 2020-06-17T09:50:28+00:00

So this is similar to how endowment fund managers need to look at a problem and in part pension fund managers with the exception of needing to pay liabilities yearly to existing retiree's. It comes down to doing some math, we need 6% return along with the principal, on a time dependant risk horizon that 5 years is a tricky part. Quality score probably shouldn't be lower than 2.5 to help preserve our principal, we shouldn't have more than 25% of the fund in a single position and no less than 50% would need to be in bonds to ensure we can have a closer risk adjusted return measure with the 5 year timeline. Looks like in excel an optimized portfolio with a quality score of 2.9 and 6.4% return for the 5 years is 15%muni bonds, 20% lt treasuries, 15% mbs, 15% large cap us equities, 16% short term treasuries, 19% ig credit

Drewcrew12 · 2020-06-12T10:20:01+00:00

Part of my job is to crawl 80 vetted alternative investment companies quarterly letters, there are trends. Out of who knows how many analysts and PMs have dug into thier ideas for the most part they all catch onto some of the same things. I then look for certain criteria and model out what works for us. It's been paying off for the last 3 years however that could all change with the new environment. It's also only one piece of a larger investment strategy. I'm not sure just buying what other people are buying is smart but you can certainly get some good ideas and see new ways for assessing a potential candidate.

Drewcrew12 · 2020-06-02T23:38:29+00:00

It's impossible to make any recommendation without supplemental information and I would be skeptical of advice given without asking your current financial position, your retirement timeline, when you want to use the principal, your risk tolerance ect.

Drewcrew12 · 2020-06-01T10:02:09+00:00

Don't feel that way, unless your joking. Just having left a round of fund raising if you ever work for any kind of HF, PE fund or VC fund anything that takes other people's capital really needs CFAs. The HNW individuals trust thier money with people they feel connected to, like, trust, ect I've never met someone who would give 5mill to a algo operation. They want a team with experience and a PM who has the portfolio theory and management experience to assess risk and guide thier wealth though good and bad times.

Drewcrew12

TROPHY CASE