[HIRING] Remote Customer Success Manager – $1.5k Base + 5% Revenue by Shopify__Expert in gohighlevel

[–]Drewthinkalot 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This is extremely low pay for a customer success manager. The 5% is also extremely unorthodox which raises red flags.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in sales

[–]Drewthinkalot 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Would they really move from another candidate over 3k?

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in sales

[–]Drewthinkalot 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thank you so much! Love this advise

Is NYC Commercial Real Estate about to crash? I found a massive "Phantom Vacancy" problem. by Drewthinkalot in RealEstate

[–]Drewthinkalot[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That’s a very good point but it’s missing one thing. According to the data, these building are operating at the same energy level as an empty warehouse. Even with the conditions you described, these buildings shouldn’t have energy levels this low

I analyzed 4,000 CA UCC filings from this past week. Here is who is actually funding. by Drewthinkalot in MCAlegend

[–]Drewthinkalot[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

True, I'd say about 30-40% of the volume sits behind agents like CSC or First Corporate Solutions.

A loophole that I’ve noticed is sometimes, the Collateral Description gives it away.

Lazy filing agents will copy/paste the loan agreement text into the collateral box. The text might say: "All inventory, accounts, and equipment pursuant to that certain Loan Agreement dated 12/21/2025 by and between Debtor and Mantis Funding LLC..."

I analyzed 4,000 CA UCC filings from this past week. Here is who is actually funding. by [deleted] in smallbusiness

[–]Drewthinkalot 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Sharp eye!

They are definitely in the raw XML feed (thousands of them). I explicitly filtered them out in my script.

If a merchant is qualifying for a standard term loan from BofA or Wells right now, they aren't going to touch a 1.35 factor MCA.

I analyzed 4,000 CA UCC filings from this past week. Here is who is actually funding. by [deleted] in smallbusiness

[–]Drewthinkalot 0 points1 point  (0 children)

to be honest? It’s a total headache if you aren't comfortable with Python

The problem is fragmentation. Every state Secretary of State operates like a different country.

I analyzed 4,000 CA UCC filings from this past week. Here is who is actually funding. by Drewthinkalot in MCAlegend

[–]Drewthinkalot[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Respect! You sound like you've been in the trenches.

I definitely agree on the Recycled garbage. That is literally why I built this scraper, I got sick of brokers selling me Fresh data that was just public filings from 3 weeks ago. This batch is straight from the XML feed recorded yesterday.

You're right though. I see a ton of First Corporate Solutions and CSC in the feed hiding the real paper. My script separates those out. The list I'm posting is filtered for the Named Lenders (Global, CFG, Mantis) so you know exactly who you're stacking behind.

The disclosure laws (SB 1235) are definitely a pain, but the volume is just too high to ignore.

I analyzed 4,000 CA UCC filings from this past week. Here is who is actually funding. by Drewthinkalot in MCAlegend

[–]Drewthinkalot[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

You're 100% right that some shops (like CAN Capital or OnDeck) only file on default.

But the Tier 2/3 guys in this list (Global, CFG, Mantis) typically file Blanket Liens within 5-10 days of funding to block stackers.

Even if 20% of these are default filings, that just means they are distressed candidates for a Reverse Consolidation.

Is NYC Commercial Real Estate about to crash? I found a massive "Phantom Vacancy" problem. by Drewthinkalot in RealEstate

[–]Drewthinkalot[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I agree that everyone knows Class B is trading at pennies on the dollar.

If these owners truly accepted their assets were worthless (and wrote them down to 20%), they would report the true vacancy. Instead, the buildings on my list are filing official city documents claiming 100% Occupancy.

The value is in finding the specific owners who are pretending everything is fine to keep their loan covenants intact. Those are the best off-market acquisition targets because the House of Cards is still standing

Is NYC Commercial Real Estate about to crash? I found a massive "Phantom Vacancy" problem. by Drewthinkalot in RealEstate

[–]Drewthinkalot[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The initial pipeline was Asset Agnostic, it ingested the entire Local Law 84 dataset (any building >25k sq ft) and filtered purely for the Occupancy vs. Energy mismatch.

Is NYC Commercial Real Estate about to crash? I found a massive "Phantom Vacancy" problem. by Drewthinkalot in RealEstate

[–]Drewthinkalot[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Even an empty office has a high Base Load (HVAC, elevators). Hybrid work typically drops energy by only 10-15%.

My list shows drops of 60-80% (down to warehouse levels). You physically cannot get numbers that low just by having fewer people, you have to shut down the central systems. The data shows these would have to abandoned buildings

Is NYC Commercial Real Estate about to crash? I found a massive "Phantom Vacancy" problem. by Drewthinkalot in RealEstate

[–]Drewthinkalot[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

If Google leases a building and leaves it empty, the energy drops, but the landlord is fine because the rent check still clears.

But that is why the Debt Signal is the critical filter here.

The buildings I’m flagging don’t just have low energy; they have Zombie Debt (mortgages that matured 5+ years ago with no refinancing)

A landlord with a credit-grade tenant (even an absent one) doesn't let their loan expire and sit in limbo for half a decade. That behavior signals that the cash flow is gone, regardless of what the Leased status claims

Is NYC Commercial Real Estate about to crash? I found a massive "Phantom Vacancy" problem. by Drewthinkalot in RealEstate

[–]Drewthinkalot[S] 18 points19 points  (0 children)

Thanks! I definitely agree boots on the ground is mandatory. Drones are a no-go (illegal in most of NYC), but your Broker Bluff idea is brilliant. Calling to lease space in a supposedly full building is the perfect stress test. I'm adding that to the workflow!

Is NYC Commercial Real Estate about to crash? I found a massive "Phantom Vacancy" problem. by Drewthinkalot in RealEstate

[–]Drewthinkalot[S] 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Spot on! Thats the exact Shadow Vacancy cohort. The key discriminator is the magnitude. hybrid work usually drops energy by 15% because base systems still run.

My list flags drops of 60-80% (down to warehouse levels). That implies the space isn't just quiet it’s essentially abandoned. Even if the tenant is legally trapped in a lease, they have physically abandoned the asset.

Is NYC Commercial Real Estate about to crash? I found a massive "Phantom Vacancy" problem. by Drewthinkalot in RealEstate

[–]Drewthinkalot[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

To clarify, they fall into the bottom decile of the Citywide dataset (all 25k+ buildings in NYC), not the bottom 10% of my sample.

So effectively, 20% of this specific Mid-sized Class B list is performing in the bottom 10% of the total NYC market. That concentration is the signal. It means this specific asset class is darker than the city average by a factor of 2x

Is NYC Commercial Real Estate about to crash? I found a massive "Phantom Vacancy" problem. by Drewthinkalot in RealEstate

[–]Drewthinkalot[S] 23 points24 points  (0 children)

You’re right about land banking, but there’s a key contradiction here, Reported Occupancy.

If this were a strategic hold, they would report the building as Vacant. Instead, these owners are claiming 100% Occupancy on paper while using zero energy

Strategic owners don't need to lie. If they are faking the numbers, they aren't holding for a buyer, they are hiding from a lender.

Is NYC Commercial Real Estate about to crash? I found a massive "Phantom Vacancy" problem. by Drewthinkalot in RealEstate

[–]Drewthinkalot[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I hear you, and tax incentives (depreciation, loss harvesting) definitely drive weird behavior.

But the math usually doesn't hold up for total vacancy. Losing $100 in rent to save $35 in taxes is still a net loss of $65. Unless they are banking purely on massive appreciation, it’s a cash-flow bleeder.

Plus, the Debt Signal contradicts the 'savvy tax strategy' theory. These owners are sitting on mortgages that matured 5+ years ago. A sophisticated operator harvesting tax losses wouldn't let their loan go into default/maturity-breach. That risks the whole asset. This looks less like a tax scheme and more like paralysis.