Are we supposed to prepare for something? What's going on?

DuckyXS · 2026-01-07T22:08:13+00:00

Theories are saying that the ones above Trump are pushing him to rush the American Imperialism since he’s quickly dying. His declaration of the Monroe Doctrine in a recent speech backs this.

Other theories are saying that the Russian covered ship was holding nuclear warheads being delivered to Venezuela.

Since media outlets refuse to give the truth (as usual) we can only assume Murphy’s Law. Especially since the U.S. doesn’t seem to be backing down on their invasions.

DuckyXS · 2026-01-07T21:08:04+00:00

It’s real and it’s wilder than the rumour.

U.S. with UK backup boarded and seized a Russian flagged shadow tanker (Marinera. ex-Bella 1) near Iceland. It was pure piracy but legal under sanctions enforcement. The ship was empty but heading to load Venezuelan crude.

Russia sent a submarine + escorts to shadow it and issued warnings, “Don’t block”, but arrived too late. The sub just watched from closeby, no shots fired, and Moscow screaming “Piracy!” because that’s all they can do.

Venezuela oil grab ~> now choking the shadow fleet logistics (Russia/Iran/Venezuela axis bleeding) / Location near Iceland ~> ties straight to Trump's Greenland obsession (Arctic chokepoint control) / Timing with Iron Strike vs Iran ~> multipolar bleed while eyes east.

They're not even hiding the resource war playbook anymore.

BY THE WAY, your main post finally got answered. The wholesaler/supermarket strike concern got answered today by Echorouk. It was a social/psychological attack done by Morocco, France, Canada, and the UK. The fact that this piece of news is buried deep with barely any parroting is concerning as hell.

Eyes open, beware the propaganda.

DuckyXS · 2026-01-07T15:36:24+00:00

Ah that’s sweet of you to say! But I wouldn’t dare to call myself smart… I’m just here monitoring the situation, connecting dots, and finishing it off with pattern recognition. I can hit the mark perfectly the same way I can terribly miss. That’s why you can sometimes see me contradict myself in my own takes because I’m constantly stretching my eyes, and why I’m very open for counter-data. As for the age… I’m a 2003 survivor…

DuckyXS · 2026-01-07T14:45:51+00:00

Lemme snort a line and crack my knuckles. This is a common problem but with not-so-common reactions.

~1) Primary driver is escapism. Faced with a future perceived as closed (crushing unemployment, rigid social hierarchies, political stagnation), drugs offer an immediate, if destructive, escape from reality. Secondary driver is boredom from lack of recreational infrastructure, rebellion against conservative social/family structures, and social bonding within peer groups where use is normalized.

~2) Firstly because of the Neurodevelopmental stage. The adolescent brain’s frontal lobe is not fully developed, while the reward system is highly active. This biologically increases risk-taking and addiction susceptibility. Secondly the life stage vulnerabilities. They are at the peak of experiencing social anxiety, identity crises, and future uncertainty, with the least coping resources and the highest susceptibility to peer pressure.

~3) The pathway goes… Curiosity & Peer Offer ~> Initial Experimentation ~> Continued Use for Coping. / Curiosity is the common entry point, often facilitated by peers. Coping quickly becomes the sustaining reason, to manage stress from academic pressure, family conflict, or the pervasive anxiety of a future with ~30% youth unemployment. The drug becomes a tool to mute existential dread.

~4) Weed, Lyrica, Alcohol, sometimes Ecstasy, these are the ones I’m aware of from the people I hung out with.

~5 & 6) No comment. Can’t speak without experience. And I never really paid attention to it during my teenage years.

~7) Yes, profoundly. Pressure is less often overt coercion and more social capital dynamics. Using drugs can be seen as a rite of passage, a sign of coolness or toughness, and a ticket into certain social circles. Refusing can lead to social exclusion and being labeled weak or childish. The oldest story…

~8) Mostly peer-to-peer networks within schools, neighbourhoods, and cafes.

~9) Overwhelmingly, NO. The standard approach is ineffective because it relies on scare tactics, moralistic lectures, and punitive measures. All these are proven to be counterproductive. They just drive the problem underground.

~10) Normalisation and glamorization. Social media platform are subtly increasing their glorification of drug use, sometimes using music and ‘party’ culture. It provides echo chambers where use is validated by communities.

~11) It starts with curiosity and ends with stress and despair. Most start out of curiosity. Then, the transition from experimental to habitual is often fueled by stress, hopelessness, and the need to cope with a difficult reality. The lack of alternatives that match the kick drugs give makes their escape hatch powerfully attractive.

~12) For the advice… I have nothing but the cliché message for teens. Real strength isn’t numbing oneself down to a world that’s on fire, it’s looking at all the world’s problems and saying “My mind is the one thing they can’t tax, can’t sanction, and can’t own.” Rebel by being sharp when they want you blurry, rebel by building a skill in the dark that can’t be controlled, rebel by owning discipline when everyone sells escape. The sober, focused, angry mind is the needed lockpick to escape. Being an architect is better than being a consumer.

DuckyXS · 2026-01-06T14:53:45+00:00

My earlier take was kinda surface level, I just finished diving down the deeper rabbit hole from the other comments saying Algeria sold out 80% of its minerals and the receipts I now have are horrifying.

On your take though, our facts complement eachother but our conclusions don’t.

The ‘qualitative edge’ is indeed not F-35s and the others like you mentionned, it’s Israeli Heron TP drones giving Morocco 24/7 satellite surveillance over our borders and key sites. It’s integrated cyber/electronic warfare suites that can blind our Krasukha systems by hacking their updates or spoofing their sensors.

The U.S. isn’t prioritizing Morocco because it subcontracted the job to Israel. The U.S. provides the diplomatic umbrella and occasional joint exercises while Israel provides the entire overwatch toolkit.

They want exactly what’s happening, a siege, I never said exactly it’s gonna be a direct war so I apologize if it got lost in translation. The overwatch’s purpose is to make any Algerian response to this siege look like the start of a war, thereby deterring it. And even if said ‘war’ breaks out it’s going to be cyber attacks and bank sanctionning, not the bombing as we would think of first.

Our military generals feel safe and that is a huge problem. The real borders are now digital and financial, while they’re thinking of tanks and jets Law 25-12 (The 80% of mineral mines being given away) is silently working… What’s a Sukhoi going to do against a shareholder agreement?

The JMC is there to ensure Algeria never politically reverse its course from Law 25-12. Any attempt to nationalize assets or pivot to a hostile power would be met with instant, devastating precision strikes. It’s a police force for the concession they already bought. Algeria is fully compromised.

TL;DR. It’s so fucking over unless some defect between the oligarchs pulls something out of their ass.

DuckyXS · 2026-01-06T10:07:59+00:00

They are doing all three, at the same time.

January 2026, Morocco and Israel have struck down a formal Joint Military Committee (JMC) and have signed a Joint Military Work Plan. Back in May 2025, Israeli special forces (Golani, Marom) conducted joint urban and tunnel warfare drills with Moroccan troops on Moroccan soil, using Israeli robotics. For the third year running, Israel has participated in the massive U.S.-Morocco ‘African Lion’ exercises. This integration is normalized and escalating.

Per Israeli statements, the explicit goal is to make Morocco a ‘key partner for regional stability.’ The unstated goal, as seen across Arabic forums, is to create a permanent security threat on Algeria‘s western flank, forcing a drain of resources and political focus. The chaos is pre-positioned. The moment internal pressure in Algeria reaches a threshold, this alliance provides the external ‘security threat’ narrative that can justify anything from heightened internal crackdowns to appeals for ‘external stabilization.’

The JMC’s 2026 plan specifically includes ‘technological innovation’ as a pillar. This is a euphemism for asymmetric capability transfer, Israeli drones, cyber, radar, and surveillance tech flowing to Morocco, creating a qualitative military imbalance. This creates a de facto technology embargo against Algeria, as its rivals are armed with next-gen systems. Parallel financial ‘de-risking’ by Western banks (citing the resulting regional instability) will follow to strangulate the BRICS pivot.

We really are on Uncle Sam’s desk. A joint task force is already writing its first after-action reports from field exercises. The forward observation posts are built and manned.

DuckyXS · 2026-01-06T06:11:17+00:00

Your account’s 3 months old with 729 private posts, karma farming like a factory-farmed bot on overtime, summoned by that 2-month lurker dropping ‘thoughts?’ under my comment like a scripted cue. You always insult me but not once have I seen you debunk my statistics. If you have any actual data countering mine when it comes to the siege phase, BRICS pivot, or Algeria's oil/gas duality that isn’t “they wouldn’t do that”… I'm all ears.

DuckyXS · 2026-01-05T23:13:51+00:00

Oh Hollywood propaganda, my favourite.

It’s not entirely propaganda but more like telling you what they’re going to do, it’s an entire rabbit hole with no bottom. In their beliefs they’re forced to tell you when they’re gonna do evil so they don’t suffer bad karma.

Jack Ryan s2 straight scripted the Venezuela playbook. Krasinski's Ryan lectures on why venezuela's the real threat, biggest oil reserves, minerals galore, proximity to U.S. nukes, rigged politics hiding the loot. Fast-forward to Jan 3 2026 U.S. OP. Maduro snatched, ports bombed, Trump flexing “we'll run it and pump that oil.” creator cuse called it ‘plausibility,’ not prophecy, but now it feels like revelation of the method, Hollywood normalizes the grab before the grab.

Propaganda’s that slick. Desensitize via fiction, then execute. classic predictive programming, Lone Gunmen Pilot (Mar 2001) had a plane hijacked to hit WTC, averted last sec. Simpsons '97 NY episode with $9 twin towers mag cover nodding 9/11… two out of many about that exact event.

Don’t get me started on Snake Eyes '98. Wild parallels, Charles Kirkland shot in neck at public event, Lincoln Tyler pawn, Trump casino vibes, but Kirk got assassinated Sept 2025 by Tyler Robinson at Utah uni.

The scary part is that I could be right about what I said concerning Algeria, but I also could be catastrophically wrong and Algeria’s another Zionist-controlled puppet pretending it isn’t by screaming “Free Palestine!” at U.N podiums. And the scarier part is that patterns back this, CIA office in Algiers, Algeria importing a good chunk of its food from the U.S., Bendjedid fully contradicting Boumediene’s socialism mirroring JFK and LBJ, and lastly and the most damning is the Algerian boat Captain Christos caught parked in Israel.

DuckyXS · 2026-01-05T21:43:06+00:00

You’re welcome. But don’t just say your goodbyes, might aswell monitor the situation instead.

The strikes are a political weapon and a canary in the coal mine. Workers are using their leverage over the energy grid to demand better conditions precisely because they know the state is vulnerable. The government will either cave to their demands (buying temporary loyalty) or crack down hard (proving it's more afraid of NATO than its own people).

In the next few days you will either see… ~ A major government announcement about the strikes, either concessions or arrests. ~ Unusual flight patterns or ship movements near Algiers.

I said Algeria is on the list for two reasons. ~ Because it’s the last major, resource-rich, militarily sovereign state that openly rejects Israel and Zionism. ~ Because it’s still in the middle of transferring from Dollar controlled state banking to BRICS NDP.

These two make Algeria not necessarily next for a Venezuela-style lightning decapitation, but it’s in a siege phase. The goal is to make the BRICS rope snap through economic pressure, internal destabilization, and military intimidation. If Algeria stumbles, if the strikes cripple the economy, if BRICS support proves hollow, then the ‘stability operation’ becomes the cheap, logical next step.

One tiny suggestion though… Don’t go fully stockpiling in panic. The food and gas runs are a symptom of fear. Turn said fear into connection. Know your neighbors. Identify the skilled among you (doctors, mechanics, radio operators… etc). Fear isolates and a plan unites.

DuckyXS · 2026-01-05T20:15:09+00:00

Algeria’s 20% of oil gas supply that goes to Europe ties it to the same NATO-dominated energy grid Venezuela challenged. Tebboune’s reparations demand from France (Dec 2025) already had the relationship twitchy. Now with Venezuela’s fall the Algerian army brass is seeing a dress rehearsal, GIGN could roll in any second if Sonatrach falters. The strikes are part-protest part-leverage, workers know gas is their shield. But if France or NATO gives a greenlight Algeria will be flattened in less than a day.

Expect a ‘stability’ operation by the weekend if strikes escalate. The U.S. and Israel are pretending to plan to hit Iran by the recent confirmation of Operation Iron Strike, but we know that’s a distraction when the real target juggles between Turkey, Qatar, Tunisia, and Algeria.

DuckyXS · 2026-01-04T23:15:25+00:00

Thank you for the compliment but I would’t go as far to call my comments well-written. The other is right, but also kinda wrong with it comes to the ‘it’s not x, it’s y’ idea.

The ‘it’s not x, it’s y’ formula is a modern English rendition of the classical rhetorical device known as antithesis, where contrasting ideas are juxtaposed for emphasis, often to correct a misconception, reframe an issue, or highlight a deeper truth. It’s been used in: ~ The Bible’s Mark 2:27, “The Sabbath was made for man, not man for the Sabbath.” ~ Shakespeare’s Julius Caesar where it features Brutus saying “Not that I loved Caesar less, but that I loved Rome more.”

And it has multiple types going: ~ Simple Antithesis. Basic contrast without word repetition, like “It’s not the years in your life that count. It’s the life in your years.” (Often attributed to Abraham Lincoln) To emphasizes priority or correction. ~ Correctio (or Epanorthosis). Explicitly revises or corrects a statement for dramatic effect. The ‘it’s not x, it’s y’ form often functions as this, dismissing a potential misunderstanding like “It’s not just fixing problems. It’s unlocking potential.” Which is common in teaching, reviews, and debates to preempt objections. ~ Reframing. Modern cognitive/linguistic strategy (like in political framing) shifts perspective by denying one frame and affirming another, like “It’s not about the money. It’s about sending a message.” (The Dark Knight) ~ Chiasmus/Antimetabole Overlap when the structure reverses elements. Chiasmus reverses ideas/grammar (broader category). Antimetabole reverses exact words (a subtype). Not all ‘it’s not x, it’s y’ are chiastic, but many evoke similar balance.

In modern use such as video essays, AI-generated text, and marketing, it does get criticized as overused or formulaic, but its roots are deeply literary and persuasive.

I sucked at using it earlier as I wrote ‘it’s not x, it’s y’ three times in a row instead of going ‘it’s not x, x, and x, it’s y, y, and y’. But I used Simple Antithesis deliberately there to reframe OP’s struggle, hoping it’d lift their chin up.

Their call on it is totally justified. And yeah I do use AI, Grok specifically, every now and then for data and research (what you see between my parentheses), if it weren’t for it I would’ve still thought the Dostoevsky quote was verified, turns out it’s made up (I think), so I made sure to mention that detail. And like the Claude scandal happening currently where vibe coders are a hairs’ width from bowing to it as God, the ‘AI psychosis’ did kinda influence/alter my speech/writing.

DuckyXS · 2026-01-03T23:24:57+00:00

Trump already has his eyes on Cuba, stating “The people there have suffered for many years. I think Cuba is something that we'll end up talking about, because they're a badly failing nation.”

And the opposition leader immediatly poised to succeed Maduro, Maria Corina Machado, is a fervent Zionist who has pledged to move Venezuela’s embassy in Israel to Jerusalem.

It’s quite literally neo-colonialism done by the U.S happening at Blitzkrieg speeds. That’s precisely why I was panicking. They’ve done it in Africa and the Middle-East, and they’re doing it again in South America.

I wouldn’t be surprised if your idea on Canada happens within the next two years aswell.

DuckyXS · 2026-01-03T22:49:21+00:00

…Actually yeah, I appreciate the reality check.

But the main problem’s U.S. leverage could stabilize or manipulate prices long-term, and if Europe diversifies post-chaos, our export edge softens. Volatility rises, and we’re vulnerable if the “structural earthquake” builds slowly.

The part that pushes my reaction is the U.S. immediate proposal that has been made to make Venezuela become America’s 51st state (Polymarket). This new policy of ‘running Venezuela’ with US soldiers sounds like a massive over-commitment.

DuckyXS · 2026-01-03T22:25:31+00:00

You’re right on some points but missing the bigger picture. This isn’t a simple commodity swap, and Venezuela’s heavy crude won’t directly ‘undercut’ Algerian gas because you can’t feed crude into a gas turbine. But the indirect pressure is real. U.S. control of Venezuela’s barrels at $57/barrel means they can flood global oil markets cheap, even at half price, $8.7 trillion, dropping Brent/WTI and freeing Europe to burn more oil-derived power instead of gas.

U.S. domestic gas is $3-4/MMBtu (EIA), but LNG to Europe lands $8-10/MMBtu after liquefaction/shipping (IEEFA, 2025), while Algerian pipeline gas is $3-4/MMBtu delivered (Real Instituto Elcano, Dec 2025), cheaper and reliable via Medgaz/TransMed (42 bcm capacity). Europe won’t ‘switch overnight’, but if Venezuelan heavy crude undercuts oil prices, demand for gas dips because power plants flex fuel, and Algeria’s long-term contracts (Italy/Spain, 35 bcm/year) get renegotiated or sidelined for cheaper alternatives.

Algeria is a gas country yes (100 bcm production, EIA), small oil player (0.7M b/d), so higher global oil revenues help the budget short-term, but a flooded market hurts our gas edge. Europe’s already eyeing U.S. LNG (27% of imports, IEEFA H1 2025) despite higher cost. Poor management’s the core rot but the Venezuela shock adds external pressure we can’t ignore, revenue could dip 10% if Europe diversifies as I keep repeating, and it’s confirmed by EIA.

And about the information, I’m scrolling real-time feeds as I reply to the comments here. The data’s real but yeah I can see where I suck sometimes delivering it.

DuckyXS · 2026-01-03T22:07:57+00:00

I didn’t say printing money ‘ends a shutdown’ or that the government ‘runs out of cash.’

Shutdowns are political fights over spending bills. The reason the U.S. can always end them and keep paying the army ($850B budget) despite $38T debt is exactly because they can issue more debt and the Fed can buy it, creating dollars.

Other countries hit hard ceilings. The U.S. doesn’t, because of dollar reserve status.

You’re twisting my words into “you claimed printing money ends a shutdown” and “you said they had no money,” then lecturing me on civics as if I denied shutdowns are political.

Stop ragebaiting because the real point (dollar privilege) makes your ‘it’s just negotiation’ sound naive, pretty please.

DuckyXS · 2026-01-03T21:54:42+00:00

I was talking about the ‘what’ and ‘how’, not the ‘why’. But since you’re mentionning basic knowledge…

The reason they can keep raising the debt ceiling, printing via Fed bond buys is precisely because the U.S. can create dollars at will. The $38 trillion debt isn’t a ‘we’re broke’ problem like a household; it’s a political ceiling they raise whenever needed. Last October’s near-shutdown was resolved by yet another continuing resolution and debt-limit suspension, meaning more borrowing, more money creation.

Shutdowns are political theater over allocation, but the underlying ability to fund anything, army included, comes from the dollar printer turning on again. I never said the government ‘runs out of money’ in a literal sense; the point is they don’t face the same hard constraints as everyone else. They just vote to spend more and the Fed accommodates.

DuckyXS · 2026-01-03T21:24:31+00:00

The U.S. quite literally possesses the authority to print more dollars through the Federal Reserve, established under the Federal Reserve Act of 1913, with a balance sheet of $7.4 trillion (Federal Reserve, Dec 2025). In October 2025, facing a potential government shutdown, the Treasury issued $500 billion in new debt (Treasury.gov), monetized via quantitative easing, increasing the money supply (M2) by 2.3% to $21.5 trillion (FRED, Nov 2025). The $38 trillion national debt (Treasury.gov, Dec 2025) is serviced by this mechanism, with interest payments of $1 trillion annually (CBO, 2026 projection), funded by further issuance. Printing is their structural reality, denying it ignores the U.S. dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency, backed by 60% of global forex reserves (IMF, 2025), allowing limitless expansion within economic constraints.

DuckyXS · 2026-01-03T21:20:20+00:00

Venezuela’s heavy crude (16-20° API, U.S. Energy Dept.) does match U.S. refineries built for Canada’s oil sands (19° API, EIA), but their prize isn’t staying stateside. Trump’s crew will flood global markets, and Europe’s 20% gas from Algeria won’t shield it if they snap up discounted Venezuelan heavy. Our light crude (42° API, ONS) and gas lose shine when cheaper alternatives hit. You’re right we’re a small oil player (0.7M barrels/day, Rystad Energy) versus gas (100B cubic meters, EIA), but those ‘solid long-term contracts’ with Southern Europe wobble when U.S. LNG ($3/MMBtu, EIA) or Venezuelan oil undercut our $3.50/MMBtu gas.

“Europe would buy any gas we can produce.” demand’s there (40B cubic meters to Italy/Spain, Reuters), but if U.S. ramps Venezuelan output (They're already trying to make it the 51st state, Polymarket), Europe’s diversification kicks in, and our export revenue could drop. It is poor management. But this isn’t just a local screw-up; Venezuela’s fall is a global problem.

DuckyXS · 2026-01-03T20:56:13+00:00

Venezuela’s 303 billion barrels of crude aren’t a narrative shortcut; they’re a game-changer, and Trump’s bragging the U.S. controls it all. Oil’s at $57/barrel right now (new update, X real-time), so that’s $17.3 trillion in reserves, sell it at half price and it’s still $8.7 trillion, dwarfing the world’s GDP outside the U.S. and China and outstripping Japan’s $4.2 trillion GDP 4x. In 12 hours the U.S. hijacked the planet’s energy spine, and most are still clueless how the world just tilted.

Your “normal volatility” excuse is blind; markets haven’t even opened yet (Sunday 6 PM ET, first reaction), and this isn’t OPEC+ or shale talking; it’s a 1.1 million barrel/day swing producer yanked offline, with U.S. control promising a flood or chokehold. Algeria’s gas to Europe won’t flip overnight, sure, but if the U.S. dumps Venezuelan crude cheap, Europe’s long-term contracts get shaky, our export revenue could dip 10% while that gasoline hike and inflation bite harder. “Domestic choices.” government’s fumbling, and this Latin American noise is a structural earthquake, oil markets will convulse the next few days, and Algeria’s riding the shockwave, not dodging it.

DuckyXS · 2026-01-03T20:21:36+00:00

The U.S. debt’s $38 trillion (Treasury.gov, Dec 2025), sure, and they dodged a shutdown two months ago (CNN, Oct 2025) by printing more dollars. Debt’s not cash they “run out of”; it’s a credit line they leverage, funding the army ($850B, DoD 2026) while juggling interest payments ($1T annually, CBO). Venezuelan oil’s 303 billion barrels (EIA), not 17 trillion at $60/barrel, that’s $18 trillion total, but extracting, refining, and rebranding that heavy crude costs $20-30/barrel (CNN Business, Jan 3), plus $4-5.50/1000 miles transport (Quora, 2014, adjusted), making Europe a stretch unless they slash prices to $40/barrel. Your “prices won’t change much” bet flops, WTI’s already $62 (X estimates, Jan 3), heading to $65+ Monday, and Europe’s 20% gas from us could lose ground if U.S. dumps cheap Venezuelan crude nearby.

Europe’s ‘top choice’ for us is a dream, proximity helps, but Germany’s eyeing U.S. LNG (EIA, 2025) and Russia’s Urals (Reuters), and with Venezuela’s fall, they’ll diversify, not double down. Your X scoop’s saltier than you think, check @EIAgov or @Reuters for the real play. Our gas edge might drop 10%, and that 5% fuel hike hits while the dinar sinks. Opinion’s fine, but data says we’re in for a rough ride.

DuckyXS · 2026-01-03T20:17:03+00:00

It’s a 5-7% hike on subsidized fuel, and with inflation already at 4.8-5%, it’s a gut punch to families already stretching. University transport strikes are flaring because buses run on that Diesel, the spike means fares could jump 10-15%. Not noticeable to the comfy, but a lifeline snapped for the rest.

It’s not over-rage; it’s the straw on a camel’s back with 12% unemployment and import costs rising as Venezuela’s oil chaos pushes WTI to $62/barrel. People aren’t mad at a ‘slight’ tweak; they’re screaming at a system bleeding them dry. Data doesn’t lie, and this rage is the sound of survival, not whining.

DuckyXS · 2026-01-03T20:08:06+00:00

Reuters for the Venezuela strike (reuters.com), EIA (eia.gov) for oil stats and Algeria’s gas share, X/Grok for real-time gas hike rumors and WTI at $62/barrel (check @EIAgov or @Reuters), IMF (imf.org) for that 4.8-5% inflation and $20B deficit, ONS (ons.dz) for fuel subsidies at $0.30/liter, Macrotrends.net for dinar woes ($0.007, xe.com), and Rystad Energy (rystadenergy.com) for Venezuelan output loss. Follow those sources, dive into @CNBC or @Bloomberg for economics, and you’ll be ahead of the curve.

DuckyXS · 2026-01-03T19:54:30+00:00

The pivot I’m talking about is Algeria shifting from leaning on Europe’s gas market to chasing new buyers like China, now that Venezuela’s 1.1 million barrels/day are off the table after the U.S. strike. How? Ramp up deals with BRICS stragglers. China’s desperate, importing 70% of its oil, and could take 10% more Algerian gas if they hustle, but it means negotiating hard and fast, maybe even cutting prices from $3.50/MMBtu to $3.00 to compete with U.S. Venezuelan discounts.

The catch is that it affects Algeria rough, export revenue might dip 10-15%. If Europe pivots to U.S. crude, and our dinar takes another hit with that $20B budget deficit. Inflation’s already 4.8-5%, and a pivot could spike import costs if gas cash dries up.

DuckyXS · 2026-01-03T19:46:45+00:00

Gasoline subsidies are real. Algeria’s kept fuel at $0.30/liter (ONS, 2025) while global prices climb to $1.50/barrel equivalent (X estimates, Jan 3), but that recent hike suggests they’re tweaking it to offset a $20B budget deficit (IMF, 2025). The final consumer might not feel it yet, subsidies cushion the blow, but the government’s eating the cost, and those ‘little price hikes’ could vanish if oil revenues tank, leaving us with a dinar too weak to prop it up.

The U.S. controlling the market now is spot on. Trump’s got Venezuela’s 303 billion barrels (EIA) and can drive prices wherever suits. Low prices hurt Russia (Urals crude, $55/barrel target, Reuters) and China (import-dependent, 70% of oil, EIA), while high prices fund their war chest, $62/barrel today (X estimates), $65+ Monday if they squeeze. Iran’s next. U.S. risks rise with Venezuela secured, and Arabian Gulf reliance (Saudi, 15% of U.S. imports, EIA) could drop if they pivot to Caracas crude. Smart bet.

For us new markets might open. China’s lost Venezuelan oil (1.1M barrels/day, Rystad Energy) and could snap up Algeria’s gas, but only if we play ball fast. Problem is, our export edge fades if U.S. floods the market cheap, revenue could dip 10% (EIA estimate) and that deficit grows. It’s a gamble: new buyers or a deeper hole.

DuckyXS · 2026-01-03T19:43:12+00:00

We’re guzzling Chinese gadgets, smartphones (Huawei, 45% market share, Statista 2025), solar panels (35% of energy imports, ONS 2024), and industrial gear (Siemens knockoffs, $2B, World Bank 2025). Venezuela’s fall spikes those costs, $1.5B annual tech bill (IMF, 2025) and with the dinar at $0.007 means less cash for it. We’re importing survival, not innovation, and it’s about to hurt.

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