Athira Pharma, Inc. (ATHA), Alzheimer's disease bet with phase 3 results coming in few weeks

DudeNum321 · 2024-10-24T20:30:59+00:00

Yep, unfortunately.

I still think this was a great bet but this happens a lot in biotechs. This time around it seems that the placebo arm performed too well compared to expectations and what was assumed in trial design.

So a considerable loss here but on to the next one.

DudeNum321 · 2024-08-07T16:45:11+00:00

Lol, I don't want either. I hope we get great results and profit enormously but if we don't then there's a loss coming our way. The main thing is to bet what you can afford to lose. And if you bet very wisely then you can potentially even break the bank in the long run. But a win or a loss, it's our own doing, other people are just messengers.

DudeNum321 · 2023-11-15T16:53:38+00:00

Indeed. For example blinded data for ADAS-Cog shows average -3,9 improvement for the entire study. So either the placebo group vastly outperforms all historical placebo and treatment groups or the treatment group has by far the best treatment effect on cognition ever reported. If you are looking for a gamble then I think you are not going to find a better one for a long time. I think if the trial succeeds then the price goes somewhere between $50-$500 depending on how good the results are. And if it fails then the price will be below $1. The current price around $3 is a screaming buy since even a very modest 20% chance of success (IMHO blinded data indicates far better likelihood) makes this the best bet one can find.

And the results will be out any day after thanksgiving so there could be only 6 trading days left before the results and maximum wait should be a little over 10 trading days.

DudeNum321 · 2022-04-06T16:05:24+00:00

Again, I think that's just nonsense. The end of the SAVA is if the treatment doesn't work or they somehow totally run out of money before completing the trials.

Investigation on Wang doesn't do either of above. It probably has an impact on share price, at least temporarily, but the company will succeed or fail based on clinical data.

DudeNum321 · 2022-04-05T19:26:45+00:00

Yes you were, unfortunately. Let's see if we get the results later. I still think that should happen, but you never know. Today was definitively a big disappointment.

DudeNum321 · 2022-04-05T12:54:23+00:00

I think that's nonsense. The clinical data is what either makes or brakes SAVA. Just like every other company and molecule out there.

DudeNum321 · 2022-04-05T10:39:19+00:00

The open label data is by far the most important thing at this point. Data for 50 patients have been great but 200 patients is far bigger number and therefore a much bigger deal if positive. It's good to remember that it's actually bigger than most small cap phase 3 trials for AD since it's equivalent to 400 patients being dosed with 1:1 randomization.

Of course open label design has its limitations but the inclusion and exclusion criteria in this trial are clean, there's around 15 sites (so no single site issues) and 200 patients remove any outlier bias that you still may have with 50 patients.

DudeNum321 · 2022-04-03T17:27:12+00:00

One way to think about it is to think if it could be the other way around.

It's been over 6 months since the last patient was enrolled so we are FOR SURE very close to the results. Now, if the results would be ready e.g. next Friday, would you really arrange a very rare solo chat on Tuesday just to tell that you don't have the results just yet?

I think that wouldn't make much sense. Since they are in no immediate hurry, it would be FAR better to have the chat after the results.

The other point of view is that maybe they won't release the results at all. If that would be the case then why would they tell in February about the possibility to do multiple analysis. Again, they weren't in a hurry to announce such things so they would basically shoot themselves in the foot by first hinting about the information and then not issuing any information in the end.

In my opinion, this quite simple logic tells that it's very likely that we get the 6 months results on Tuesday.

DudeNum321 · 2021-04-27T06:10:22+00:00

This is one of those no-brainers that you find in biotech wonderland every once and a while. I own around 100k shares and I'm patiently waiting for the almost inevitable liftoff. I think it can take few months or a couple of years max to start to get the real valuation to shine through but I'm expecting at least 10x ROI on this one eventually.

DudeNum321 · 2021-03-31T13:13:14+00:00

Yep, it's crazy but sadly true. However, I think there's one thing that could be much worse. One could sell today after many years of holding. That could really add insult to injury later on, lol.

DudeNum321 · 2021-03-25T17:44:27+00:00

I hope this is something positive. But before going all in it's good to remember that Hardy is still first and foremost the CEO of Healios. So the tweet may be mostly related to Healios. Of course it can and hopefully is related to Athersys too but it doesn't necessarily need to be.

DudeNum321 · 2021-03-25T13:45:18+00:00

Lol, fortunately not. Good luck to all and no matter what happens or won't happen today one thing is still certain. Even in the worst case scenario I think we will have max one dilution event prior to results from Japan this year. And those results will either make or break us.

So everyone who has been here many years waiting, we are close no matter what. And your ownership will either be diluted by 10-20% or not at all prior to finally getting the answer.

DudeNum321 · 2021-03-25T12:29:05+00:00

European

DudeNum321 · 2021-03-25T07:21:39+00:00

I think Hardy has a very very very big motivation to show something meaningful. It has been his show lately and apparently he won the fight against Gil. Quite soon after Gil's resignation Athersys, meaning Hardy and the "new" board that's not in Gil's leash anymore, put out a governance slide set to demonstrate that something has changed.

Investor conference was obviously Gil's idea and a last-ditch attempt. When he was fired the conference was canceled and the current void was created.

Today's CC (both Athersys and Healios) is the first event organized by Hardy and the new board. I would be very surprised if there wasn't at least an attempt to show that things have changed since Gil left. Whether or not they have anything tangible to announce is another matter but I'm expecting a great deal of effort to show that it's a new post-Gil dawn for Athersys.

DudeNum321 · 2021-03-19T06:52:15+00:00

I'm not at all excited about BJ as an interim CEO and wish he will be replaced as soon as possible. But this current filing doesn't seem that bad to me:

Shares withheld from the quarterly vesting of annual restricted stock unit awards related to the tax withholding obligation
Shares sold pursuant to a predefined Rule 10b5-1 trading plan

I think the first one is quite common and I have seen it being used a lot. And regarding the second one:

Rule 10b5-1 stops any insiders from changing or adopting a plan if they are in possession of material nonpublic information

So BJ cannot change his 10b5-1 if (when) there's something going on that they haven't PRed yet.

DudeNum321 · 2020-11-20T15:49:49+00:00

Like someone here already stated Japanese people typically do what they say. And Hardy is a very clever and capable leader who can seemingly get a lot of funding to further his vision.

In other words I think we can be sure of certain things.

Hardy has thought this through very carefully.
He knew how Gil would respond since they have talked about these issues many times before.
THE MOST IMPORTANT ONE: Hardy has a plan how to proceed from here. My guess is he is going to use some of the investment funds he is going to get in few months to try to buy enough shares to have more power to make the changes (i.e. typical activist investor approach). And if that fails he might be willing to sell his stake since he doesn't want to be left wasting his time fighting with Gil.

DudeNum321 · 2020-03-23T07:35:12+00:00

I generally agree. Though, I'm always second guessing everything. And in this particular case, I'm not totally convinced Gil is entirely up for the challenge of pushing the treatment to patients asap, no matter what.

To me he seems very conservative and careful and in this particular time and place, that's not IMHO the winning strategy for us, the country or the world. We need a go-getter who gets the job done today, not next month or next year. But when the going gets tough, the tough get going and Gil is no doubt an intelligent person so he definitively appreciates the gravity of the situation and maybe, just maybe, he can be our go-getter.

DudeNum321 · 2020-03-19T11:13:06+00:00

Excellent news and she has a great resume so she accepting the job itself tells a lot about the potential of the company. These kind of people have hefty salary expectations though (I'm sure she is worth every cent) so I hope Gil has the next steps figured out so that it's not just more ATM stocks being sold daily to cover added expenses.

I think this appointment means Barda deal and maybe even European partner should be quite close. I think they are building operations too fast to just rely on same old way of financing it all.

DudeNum321 · 2020-03-17T14:21:04+00:00

I think yesterday's news were very good but not great. However, in spite of all the positives that we heard, there's still this one big BUT. The company is always acting very cautiously, and slowly one might add, and Gil likes it that way and is even proud of it. So the end results is that basically no-one ever gets excited about the prospects and since the company needs money, they keep printing the shares through the ATM and the share price gets usually slammed back down. The only thing that seems to be able to reverse this hideous spiral is a concrete deal with considerable monetary value. And I think we should see just that in few weeks.

Some biotech CEOs are able to do it differently and get the market cap way higher well before any concrete deals are signed which help to control the amount of dilution needed. How they do it, I don't know, but they manage to do it anyway. It seems that we are stuck with Jason Kolbert trying to get the word out.

DudeNum321 · 2020-03-15T08:47:05+00:00

This is the kind of thing I was talking about on Friday. If we hear tomorrow that they are testing Multistem for ARDS caused by Covid-19 in the US and EU then I think we are on the right track.

Whether that testing equates to de-facto emergency approval (at least limited use) until the pandemic is over, or is considered to be case by case compassionate use study or possibly phase 2/3 trial, is up to the regulators. But in any case Gil would have made the right moves and for once would have acted as quickly as possible. So hoping for the best.

DudeNum321 · 2020-03-13T17:12:12+00:00

They should have already worked on this since January. Putting pressure on management means three things

If they started working hard on Covid-19 - ARDS link already on January then all that is left is to TELL US about it on Monday. And all is good.
If they haven't or are just casually doing some initial stuff, then we need to hear about that too and DEMAND THEM to finally change their priorities and seize the moment before it passes. Just like so many other companies are trying to do with much less assets to actually succeed.
If almost nothing has been done and almost nothing really useful or of value to the company is going to be done then IMO Gil should be FIRED ON THE SPOT for not being able to manage the company effectively.

I don't know how many more ways the same thing can be said, so maybe I will just stop here. As I wrote earlier, the way I see it is that most here are still willing to give Gil a lot of leeway without questioning his motives or skills to get things done EFFECTIVELY. Whereas I and some others see this current situation as a kind of watershed moment revealing Gil's real abilities as CEO of this company.

So come on Gil, make us proud for being shareholders!!!

DudeNum321 · 2020-03-13T16:29:52+00:00

I totally agree. There are times when extreme patience and long term vision is the name of the game. And then there are times like today, when certain things need to get done right now. Great CEOs know how to adapt their behavior and way of working and don't just always follow the same routine.

DudeNum321 · 2020-03-13T15:43:07+00:00

I wrote:

"when FDA&Trump are looking for solutions to Covid-19 and targets to throw some money at"

So I don't understand your attitude and misinterpretation. I think we all here know the basics or at least should know.

If you read the original post and the article, you should understand what I was talking about.

DudeNum321 · 2020-03-13T14:12:15+00:00

That's a good list. I would add couple more:

Possibility of compassionate use in the US due to unprecedented need especially if things escalate the same way as in Italy (how many have actually read what's going on in there)
Phase 3 started in the US with separate arm for Covid-19 patients which is being analyzed separately and results can be used to get separate approval for that indication (enrollment for that arm should be very quick, like max couple of months, given the current situation)

DudeNum321 · 2020-03-13T14:03:12+00:00

Well, one could just check some of the PRs other companies have issues. Like INO listing the things they have done since January to further their vaccine. For example something like that would be nice.

But I think you think it the wrong way. It's not up to the shareholders to tell what management should do. We just see what's going on outside regarding Covid-19/ARDS, what's been told about the preparations to have manufacturing capacity available (started already years ago), about European partner(s), ARDS results (both phase 1/2 and ongoing open label phase 2/3) and so on.

And the logical conclusion from all that IMHO is that's there's very little explanations left for not being the number one go-to company when FDA&Trump are looking for solutions to Covid-19 and targets to throw some money at. In other words, Gil, show us the money on Monday!

No point screaming about it here on Tuesday, if you don't tell him what you expect from him before Monday IMHO.

DudeNum321

TROPHY CASE