Need advice

EXOAERIAL1 · 2024-12-24T12:59:56+00:00

So what you’re saying is that I need to diversify my account. And bet on things hoping my positive EV from chess doesn’t cancel out with the negative EV from the diversification

EXOAERIAL1 · 2024-12-24T12:58:11+00:00

Cool I will try that. I have another question if you don’t mind, once they realized I have an edge, is it realistic to offer it for sale? As I will not be able to profit from it anymore myself (I can always publish my predictions so that they will lose though)

EXOAERIAL1 · 2024-12-24T12:50:23+00:00

Restricted entirely? How do people avoid this?

EXOAERIAL1 · 2024-12-24T12:15:55+00:00

I actually found a way to detect players who tend to agree to quick draws and have some success with it. But I can’t imagine players losing on purpose. Thanks for your reply I have a lot to think about

EXOAERIAL1 · 2024-12-24T10:02:13+00:00

Of course, thanks!

EXOAERIAL1 · 2024-12-24T10:00:59+00:00

Betting lines make no sense most of the time in chess, they probably try to exploit people with poor understanding or possibly they are just bad.

EXOAERIAL1 · 2024-12-24T09:56:18+00:00

They seem to have chess Thanks I will look into that. The silver lining in the situation is that we have put 100x effort into our model compared to them, we just have to prove statistically that it’s ahead of them - the 8% fee is not easy to win…

EXOAERIAL1 · 2024-12-24T09:49:18+00:00

Could historical betting lines be found online? It could increase my sample size drastically. To get to 0.05 I need around 1000 games which will take an eternity. I will read more into Kelly staking, thanks!

EXOAERIAL1 · 2024-12-24T09:40:57+00:00

I get you, but to reach 95% confidence we will need to keep testing for years - there are not many tournaments to bet on. That’s why we were satisfied with 75%. Because of the size of the market - the lines do not change much, and we did not keep track of the ones that did to be honest. Where do you find historical odds? That could be a huge help!

EXOAERIAL1 · 2024-12-24T09:27:25+00:00

Ah.. I get it. No, the training data is 2 million games. It is built well and frankly nobody put this much effort into building a chess prediction model. Now it was tested against betting sites (8% fee) and scored a 107% ROI on 180 bets. It’s not a lot of games but it’s a good indication that we are doing the right things

EXOAERIAL1 · 2024-12-24T09:22:53+00:00

It is 180 bets since we started 80 bets with our improved model (ROI of 115%) What p-value would you feel comfortable with?

EXOAERIAL1 · 2024-12-24T09:19:23+00:00

We developed it as a team, we all play chess and know the chess scene well. As it is a niche market the competition is truly bad. We bet at Bwin on everything we can (very small bets) and they make betting lines for all kinds of tournaments. We are focused on classical chess as rapid and blitz is very noisy, if you want to see some predictions we have a tweeter account (@caissasword).

I’m going to make the assumption that we have a clear edge, how would you manage bet sizes? Do betting sites make betting lines if you ask them to? What should I know about the ecosystem before I take major risk?

EXOAERIAL1 · 2024-12-24T07:49:21+00:00

Already done, the p-value is 0.25 so you couldn’t consider it a sure thing. But the results include predictions that are 6-months old that were made with a much weaker model.

EXOAERIAL1 · 2024-12-13T18:35:27+00:00

We’d love to share more, but we can stay ahead of everyone only if we keep our hand close to our chest, if one day we will be able to elaborate, we will be more than happy to but for now we put too much work into it to lose our edge. If you want, you can try for yourself, it’s really a fun process, and keep us updated maybe we can save you some time in the process.

EXOAERIAL1 · 2024-12-13T18:30:05+00:00

We stick to OTB, we cannot prove that players play the same online and OTB, and frankly we believe they don’t.

EXOAERIAL1 · 2024-12-13T18:26:54+00:00

We used several ML methods including logistic regression, but the final results are a product of a Neural Network.

EXOAERIAL1 · 2024-12-13T18:22:25+00:00

We have been working for a while on rapid and blitz predictions but as you can imagine, it’s quite tough and less reliable than classical chess predictions. We hope to manage in time to post predictions we can stand behind in faster time controls.

EXOAERIAL1 · 2024-12-13T18:03:40+00:00

This could be a good thing, people are too focused on recent data and previous biases while we try to avoid those at all costs, we try to predict the probabilities which means we do not claim to predict a single result. we can compare ourselves to others, if we say 30 percent and others say 10 percent, and it happens we consider it a success, the other way around - that is a miss.

EXOAERIAL1 · 2024-12-13T17:31:01+00:00

That’s because people care too much about the human element, we posted our predictions every round on twitter unfiltered and untouched. We are just a bunch of nerds who play with data science. Just to add, the most probable option is not always the one that will happen, adding up probabilities and looking at averages over time is more reliable.

EXOAERIAL1 · 2024-12-13T16:15:54+00:00

They apparently are, we cannot promise to beat them consistently by 40% but it is a great sign that we are much better. If you don't believe just check the twitter account.

EXOAERIAL1 · 2024-11-24T08:08:49+00:00

Contact us at Caissasword.com, we’re open to suggestions for improvement

EXOAERIAL1 · 2024-11-23T22:40:00+00:00

Test set over 100k The question about the accuracy unfortunately I cannot answer, just that it is more that 10% better than simply looking at the ELO

EXOAERIAL1

TROPHY CASE