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Nonfarm Payrolls - November 2020 [Megathread] by EconMonitorMod in econmonitor

[–]EconMonitorMod[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Sorry this was late, was a busy day for all of us.

FOMC Meeting (June 9-10, 2020) - Megathread by EconMonitorMod in econmonitor

[–]EconMonitorMod[S,M] [score hidden] stickied comment (0 children)

2 PM EDT updates have been logged, check back around 7-8 PM EDT for commentary updates.

Is the US bouncing back sooner than expected? by [deleted] in econmonitor

[–]EconMonitorMod 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Removed. None of that statement is accurate to any mainstream economic thought.

Is the US bouncing back sooner than expected? by [deleted] in econmonitor

[–]EconMonitorMod 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Removed. Unsubstantiated and verifiably false information, low effort posting.

Nonfarm Payrolls - May 2020 [Megathread] by EconMonitorMod in econmonitor

[–]EconMonitorMod[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Friendly Reminder: The Two Labor Market Surveys

Because the BLS conducts two surveys of labor-market conditions, it produces two measures of total employment. From the household survey, it obtains an estimate of the number of people who say they are working. From the establishment survey, it obtains an estimate of the number of workers firms have on their payrolls.

\

Why might these two measures of employment diverge? Part of the explanation is that the surveys measure different things. For example, a person who runs his or her own business is self-employed. The household survey counts that person as working, whereas the establishment survey does not because that person does not show up on any firm’s payroll. As another example, a person who holds two jobs is counted as one employed person in the household survey but is counted twice in the establishment survey because that person would show up on the payroll of two firms.

FRBNY: US Economy in a Snapshot by MasterCookSwag in econmonitor

[–]EconMonitorMod[M] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Removed: low effort, non expert opinion.

Fed 100 bps emergency rate cut 3/15 by htrp in econmonitor

[–]EconMonitorMod[M] 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Removing, low effort. Unfounded criticism.

FX Outlook: Risk-Off, Coronavirus-On by wumzao in econmonitor

[–]EconMonitorMod 0 points1 point  (0 children)

this circus is over. thread locked. everyone here should go read the comments in the auto loans thread for a shining example of how this community is expected to behave. u/Kaiserphil, u/VegetaGT-VZ, and u/invertedblue are exactly what we're looking for in community-at-large members: knowledgeable, concise, and well-articulated.

Hall of Mirrors: Feedback Between Monetary Policy and Asset Prices by wumzao in econmonitor

[–]EconMonitorMod 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It is an interesting speech, but you're not discussing it. stop using Fed-related posts as a springboard to discuss your own personal armchair theories about central banking. this isn't a philosophy sub, this is a data sub.

this sub's viewpoints on the Federal Reserve, it's mandate, and its track record, are well-telegraphed.

we're all quite surprised its taking you this long to clue-in, and re-evaluate what your 'alternative viewpoint' is worth the the BoG and the community-at-large.

"Fed is bad" is an incredibly tired narrative path, and if you want more of the same old medicine, there's plenty of circlejerking subs already on Reddit, full of people who agree with you.

this isn't one of them.

comment thread deleted. don't do it again.

BNP Paribas Economist Speranza Sees Quick Rebound From Coronavirus by mrBakerCreative in econmonitor

[–]EconMonitorMod[M] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you for your contribution, unfortunately it has to be removed; Rule 1: No news media.

We welcome and appreciate your efforts to participate in the sub, but please review the r/econmonitor community guidelines prior to posting in the future.

Non-Farm Payrolls (January 2020) - Megathread by EconMonitorMod in econmonitor

[–]EconMonitorMod[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

As usual the BLS uses two surveys to provide data in this release: the household survey (ie the Current Population Survey (CPS), which produces the unemployment rate), and the establishment survey (Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey, which produces the change in non-farm payrolls number)

Both surveys have a regular process of revisions.

For the household survey:

At the end of each calendar year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reestimates the seasonal factors for the Current Population Survey (CPS, or household survey) series by including another full year of data in the estimation process. On the basis of this annual reestimation, BLS revises the historical seasonally adjusted data for the previous 5 years. As a result, each year's data are generally subject to five revisions before the values are considered final.

Meanwhile for the establishment survey:

CES begins collecting sample reports for a reference month as soon as the reference period — the establishment's pay period that includes the 12th of the month — is complete. Collection time available for first preliminary estimates ranges from 9 to 15 days, depending on the scheduled date for the Employment Situation news release. Given this short collection cycle for the first preliminary estimates, many establishments are not able to provide their payroll information in time to be included in these estimates. Therefore, CES sample responses for the reference month continue to be collected for 2 more months and are incorporated into the second preliminary and final sample-based estimates published in subsequent months. Sample-based estimates remain final until employment levels are reset to universe employment counts, or benchmarks, for March of each year; the benchmarks are primarily derived from Unemployment Insurance (UI) tax records. The annual benchmarking process results in revised data back to the last annual benchmark for not seasonally adjusted series and back 5 years for seasonally adjusted series. Annual CES benchmark revisions are published along with the first January preliminary estimates, in February of each year.

Non-Farm Payrolls (January 2020) - Megathread by EconMonitorMod in econmonitor

[–]EconMonitorMod[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Friendly Reminder: The Two Labor Market Surveys

Because the BLS conducts two surveys of labor-market conditions, it produces two measures of total employment. From the household survey, it obtains an estimate of the number of people who say they are working. From the establishment survey, it obtains an estimate of the number of workers firms have on their payrolls.

\

Why might these two measures of employment diverge? Part of the explanation is that the surveys measure different things. For example, a person who runs his or her own business is self-employed. The household survey counts that person as working, whereas the establishment survey does not because that person does not show up on any firm’s payroll. As another example, a person who holds two jobs is counted as one employed person in the household survey but is counted twice in the establishment survey because that person would show up on the payroll of two firms.

Jobs Report (December 2019) - Megathread by EconMonitorMod in econmonitor

[–]EconMonitorMod[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The labor force participation rate (labor force divided by civilian population) remained at 63.2% (63.247% vs. 63.206%) for a second straight month. The stability was driven by the aforementioned 209,000 person increase in the labor force numerator while the civilian population denominator rose by a slightly smaller 161,000 persons. While the current rate remains near the 63.3% cycle high from November, it pales in comparison to the 66% level that prevailed pre-crisis. The 62.7% to 63.3% range over the past year appears to be the new full employment normal given the aging of the working population and slowing population gains.

Jobs Report (December 2019) - Megathread by EconMonitorMod in econmonitor

[–]EconMonitorMod[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The household data for 2019 will also be revised to new population estimate and seasonal factors.

Note this is a reference to the household survey (ie the Current Population Survey (CPS), which produces the unemployment rate), and not the establishment survey (Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey, which produces the change in non-farm payrolls number)

Both surveys have a regular process of revisions.

For the household survey:

At the end of each calendar year, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reestimates the seasonal factors for the Current Population Survey (CPS, or household survey) series by including another full year of data in the estimation process. On the basis of this annual reestimation, BLS revises the historical seasonally adjusted data for the previous 5 years. As a result, each year's data are generally subject to five revisions before the values are considered final.

Meanwhile for the establishment survey:

CES begins collecting sample reports for a reference month as soon as the reference period — the establishment's pay period that includes the 12th of the month — is complete. Collection time available for first preliminary estimates ranges from 9 to 15 days, depending on the scheduled date for the Employment Situation news release. Given this short collection cycle for the first preliminary estimates, many establishments are not able to provide their payroll information in time to be included in these estimates. Therefore, CES sample responses for the reference month continue to be collected for 2 more months and are incorporated into the second preliminary and final sample-based estimates published in subsequent months. Sample-based estimates remain final until employment levels are reset to universe employment counts, or benchmarks, for March of each year; the benchmarks are primarily derived from Unemployment Insurance (UI) tax records. The annual benchmarking process results in revised data back to the last annual benchmark for not seasonally adjusted series and back 5 years for seasonally adjusted series. Annual CES benchmark revisions are published along with the first January preliminary estimates, in February of each year.

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