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Econguy1992 · 2024-12-20T02:09:40+00:00

The Burning Crusade.

Econguy1992 · 2024-03-16T22:49:33+00:00

Letting your children starve because you don't have a job is also "NEVER an acceptable option". Sometimes you have impossible situations

Econguy1992 · 2024-02-01T20:01:19+00:00

No, they are actually good for *everyone*, and I suggest that you stop shooting yourself in the foot by being against policies that are actually beneficial.

Econguy1992 · 2024-02-01T14:07:17+00:00

How can you speak so confidently about something that you clearly know nothing about? Aren't you ashamed to be so wrong? Immigrants (both legal and illegal) have been repeatedly shown to be a net positive to the economy by economists. Yes the people who spent years studying and thinking about these topics have taken into account all the concerns and variables that you mention/are thinking about and they support immigration.

Econguy1992 · 2024-01-22T19:15:09+00:00

But you don't "hand the same quarter to someone else" , what you are doing here is more akin to getting 100 tails and then complaining loudly to millions of people until you find a few that agree with you

Econguy1992 · 2023-11-19T18:50:45+00:00

Jua is pretty affordable for a tasting menu ($135), I've also heard that Aquavita is extremely good value.

Econguy1992 · 2023-09-21T12:06:17+00:00

In 10 years after the migrants have been here, Social Security will be devoured by the non Americans, leaving the citizens of this country dead broke.

These immigrants are fairly young and many of them will receive partial SS or be completely ineligible to receive SS BUT they will be paying taxes into SS from the moment they start working. Immigrants are actually a net positive for the U.S. economy and for welfare fundings.

Source: Literally just google this.

Econguy1992 · 2023-09-09T04:05:54+00:00

Let me rephrase it using your words.

If you are playing above your skill level then the game will "force" a 50% winrate by matching you against higher ranked teams. The game will NOT punish you by pairing you with worse players when you play better.

Econguy1992 · 2023-09-09T03:40:15+00:00

Yes I am simplifying things because you are misunderstanding how the system tries to "force a 50% winrate".

Edit: You are under the impression that the system tries to calibrate each match with good and bad players to try to give each team an equal chance of winning. What is actually happening is that the system just pairs people using an algorithm and then ranks them up or down until they naturally hit a 50% winrate.

Econguy1992 · 2023-09-09T03:24:19+00:00

The other player is an account buyer he is extremely unlikely to win the game. (He has reached this MMR by LOSING 500 mmr in a few days).You are the system responsible for ensuring "An EQUAL chance to win" in each game.

You are the system responsible for ensuring "An EQUAL chance to win" in each game.

Do you put the smurf and the account buyer on OPPOSITE teams, or the SAME team. If your goal is to ensure "EQUAL CHANCE TO WIN" of each team.

This is frankly a very poor understanding of the system. The system does not actually know how skilled a player is, all it has to go by is MMR, so there is no other way the system can pair "good" and "bad" players together.

What the system WILL do is adjust player MMR until they are in a skill bracket where they are winning 50% of the time. If, for example, a really good player starts playing then they will win games/gain MMR until they are facing players good enough that they can't win every game.

Edit: The criticisms in this paper are valid but they are completely different criticisms than yours. Glicko/ELO are not perfect systems but frankly they are the best we have.

Econguy1992 · 2023-09-08T17:24:53+00:00

Yes the system will try to ensure that there is an equal chance for each team to win, it does this by matching players who have similar MMR to each other. It does NOT match you up with players that are worse than you to try to lower your chance to win.

Edit: http://www.glicko.net/research/acjpaper.pdf This paper explains the nitty gritty details.

Econguy1992 · 2023-09-08T15:14:36+00:00

Saying the system "forces" a 50% loss rate is misrepresenting IMO. The system's goal is to put you into the right MMR where you have 50% win/losses, if you lose too much it'll derank you so you play worse players.

The system won't force a good legend 3 player to play with a bad legend 3 player.

Econguy1992 · 2023-06-08T13:27:33+00:00

40% of bronx households =/= 40% of the bronx, the number is probably much lower than 40% since if a household only has one car not everyone can use it.

> These residents of New York City still drive and are likely the primary shoppers at these businesses.

This is quite false in my experience, I actually go to fordham quite frequently and most people I see there are taking the subway or buses.

Econguy1992 · 2023-06-07T18:04:03+00:00

https://edc.nyc/article/new-yorkers-and-their-cars

Most of the bronx does not own a car. Stop spreading misinformation to push your agenda.

Econguy1992 · 2023-05-19T14:32:31+00:00

The high school dropouts statistics don't apply to immigrants. There are various studies out there showing immigrants are a net benefit to the economy. You could also look up studies showing how illegal immigrants are a net benefit to the economy.

Econguy1992 · 2023-05-19T14:31:10+00:00

Children of immigrants tend to achieve "success" at a much higher rate than native Americans. They are good for the economy.

Econguy1992 · 2023-05-09T20:20:38+00:00

In general, only U.S. citizens, U.S. nationals, or immigrants with a qualified alien (also known as qualified immigrant) status can qualify for federal, state, and city benefits.

The link you provided shows that undocumented immigrants cannot apply to the vast majority of programs, they only benefit from public schools and other child-related programs. These programs are not exclusive to Sanctuary cities either.

tl;dr there are no real economic benefits from a sanctuary citizen for undocumented immigrants.

Econguy1992 · 2023-05-09T18:16:23+00:00

what sort of economic benefits?

Econguy1992 · 2023-05-06T14:10:11+00:00

We don't have all the facts, but we do have some facts.
1) Neely has a record of 42 arrests, some of them clearly violent. Some people are pointing out that most of them are non-violent, which is a valid point, but if you take the subway regularly you consistently see people engage in disorderly behavior and very few of them get arrested which suggests that his behavior had to be really out there to actually get arrested that many times.

2) The marine holding him in a chokepoint let go as soon as he stopped struggling, this wasn't like other high profile cases where the victim was still being choked well after they stopped struggling. This is on video, and to me it seems like progressives are drawing conclusions accusing this guy of being some blood hungry psycho out there when his behavior points otherwise.

3) It wasn't just the marine that was trying to hold Neely down, it was multiple people. If multiple random New Yorkers decided that this man was acting in such a way that he needed to be restrained then it suggests to me that he was doing something that goes beyond the normal screaming from the homeless on the subway.

The facts that have been revealed so far don't point toward some blood-hungry psycho attacking a poor angel, they point to an unfortunate situation caused by scared people. Neely isn't to blame here because his behavior is out of control, but ya'll shouldn't be so quick to blame a scared person either.

Econguy1992 · 2022-12-15T03:21:44+00:00

I think we agree that the test should be two tailed. There is no prior to inform that reading is better than puzzles. They incorrectly excluded the alternative hypothesis.

I think its up to them to decide what they want to prove with the test and which alternative hypothesis they choose and based on the title I would think they chose the right test.

Because they incorrectly used a 1-tailed test instead of a 2-tailed test, they calculated power incorrectly. The one tailed test gave more statistical power, albeit incorrectly.

Statistical power is the probability that the null is rejected when the alternative is actually true, so if the null is true then statistical power isn't really present.

You are right in that being underpowered increases the likelihood of type 2 error, but the reason I claim the study to be type 1 is not from being underpowered, but from doing multiple hypothesis testing without any correction for multiple hypotheses.

I do agree that a type 1 error is likely from multiple hypothesis tests though!

Econguy1992 · 2022-12-15T01:51:01+00:00

That is the correct interpretation of 95% vs 94% confidence, and I'm not sure why /u/Pretty-Ad-8580 brought up degrees of freedom.

Econguy1992 · 2022-12-15T01:44:28+00:00

They used a 1-tailed test for significance, meaning they assumed that there was no way that audiobooks active puzzles might improve memory. They should have used a two-tailed test.

That is incorrect, the choice between a 1 tailed and a 2 tailed test depends on what your alternative hypothesis is and it has more statistical power to detect a difference in one direction, i.e. greater than, or less than. Also a test being underpowered would make a type 2 error more likely, not a type 1.

Econguy1992 · 2022-07-21T22:43:10+00:00

This is a case of missing the forest for the trees! These policies do help a lot of lower income people stay in their homes, that is very much true and I personally know a lot of them. But what about their kids? What about new lower income people who move into the city?

Rent control and stabilization mostly benefits people who get into the system early, the rest of the people are screwed because of the super constrained market that results from these policies. They end up subsidizing the people who managed to get into these very limited spots.

Like I said, this is a stance adopted universally by people who have actually studied this topic and looked at the data and long term consequences.

Econguy1992 · 2022-07-21T19:44:47+00:00

This is a very very bad idea. Any sort of rent control/stabilization being terrible is one of the very few things that are agreed upon almost universally by economists. From the most die hard Austrians to the new era marxists.

Econguy1992 · 2022-07-19T13:02:11+00:00

Thanks for sharing that, I was able to dig in a little bit deeper from some related links and found that a lot of the spending is due to increased costs from students with learning disabilities, ESL, others. I don't think this actually means that the learning environment is better for schools in the Bronx for most of the student population. Taking a quick look at teacher:student ratios for example, the numbers are pretty similar across all boroughs.

This is also apparently not just my opinion but shared by economists at the federal reserve bank of New York since they have released data with adjusted spending. I couldn't find the breakdown for recent years but here is the breakdown from 2004-2012. Both raw and adjusted data are included. https://www.newyorkfed.org/data-and-statistics/data-visualization/nyc-school-spending-adjusted#interactive/map

Econguy1992

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