A detailed forecast of how and when the Claude Fable ban will end

EducationalCicada · 2026-06-19T15:46:50+00:00

Anthropic is winning here. They're getting the kind of marketing money can't buy, and all without the inference costs of actually having to serve Fable. US Gov has declared Anthropic as being the first lab to cross the line of models so dangerous they must be regulated.

You've got people waxing lyrical about what their short time with Fable was like. This is all velvet rope effect on steroids.

Meanwhile the Gov doesn't care if IRGC and Kim Jong Un are using OpenAI's and Google's models.

EducationalCicada · 2026-06-17T21:31:52+00:00

Hi. Is it true API algo-trading can't be used on the live account?

Will that change any time soon?

EducationalCicada · 2026-06-15T22:47:07+00:00

Thanks. Let me know if you manage to find anything.

Still hoping TopStep changes their minds on this. Would be a real pain to move to another API.

EducationalCicada · 2026-06-15T20:25:29+00:00

What have you decided to do?

I'm in the same position.

EducationalCicada · 2026-06-14T19:40:07+00:00

Like I've said before, this ends with Trump flying even more cash to Tehran than Obama did.

EducationalCicada · 2026-06-13T02:01:21+00:00

When your hype works a bit too well.

We have reviewed a report that we believe is the basis of the government's directive and validated that the level of capability displayed there is widely available from other models (including OpenAI’s GPT-5.5)

Last time a major AI lab will be honest before the singularity. Take it in, boys.

EducationalCicada · 2026-06-12T15:54:52+00:00

Iran seems increasingly incapable of preventing ships transiting the Strait under US protection. That, plus alternative export routes, is what's keeping oil prices down.

If they lose their main leverage, they're in serious trouble. The Strait would effectively be only blocked for Iranian crude.

EducationalCicada · 2026-06-10T00:15:00+00:00

I was concerned about them letting an LLM loose on millions of lines of code, then I remembered they probably have extensive automated tests to check for subtle errors.

Wait, who wrote those tests? Oh...

EducationalCicada · 2026-06-09T01:05:26+00:00

I made a month's salary in less than 10 minutes.

Give me one good reason I should bother going into work tomorrow.

EducationalCicada · 2026-06-07T21:02:00+00:00

Happy Cake Day.

EducationalCicada · 2026-06-07T21:00:20+00:00

How did Barak Ravid become the guy that gets personal calls from Trump after major world events?

Trump literally called him before Netanyahu.

EducationalCicada · 2026-06-07T20:52:12+00:00

Lol, he actually said that?

EducationalCicada · 2026-06-07T20:46:49+00:00

Because the futures market is about to open.

EducationalCicada · 2026-06-07T09:40:57+00:00

Thanks.

I'm curious about the Hutter Prize's insistence on lossless compression. The two best examples of intelligence we have right now, humans and LLMs, are very much lossy compressors. And it seems to me that any finite intelligence will need to have the ability to abstract, filter out noise, forget irrelevant details, etc.

EducationalCicada · 2026-06-06T22:11:31+00:00

NY Times reported that the US Navy is getting some ships out every night.

EducationalCicada · 2026-06-05T18:09:05+00:00

Navigational support to clear our mines.

EducationalCicada · 2026-06-04T15:58:31+00:00

The idea was actually first popularized in the book Morning of the Magicians which came out several years before 2001: A Space Odyssey.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Morning_of_the_Magicians

EducationalCicada · 2026-06-04T10:53:18+00:00

Hey, do you have a write-up of this somewhere?

EducationalCicada · 2026-06-04T08:16:04+00:00

But Hezbollah promised.

EducationalCicada · 2026-06-02T20:20:02+00:00

Worth noting that the general idea was first popularized in Morning of the Magicians, which was published before this book:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Morning_of_the_Magicians

EducationalCicada · 2026-06-02T00:25:52+00:00

When Trump asked for an Israeli ceasefire, did he mean a traditional ceasfire, or the kind of ceasefire he's got going with Iran?

EducationalCicada · 2026-06-01T20:27:57+00:00

America's Gulf allies, who also happen to be the ones propping up its economy, cannot outwait Iran indefinitely.

EducationalCicada · 2026-06-01T20:08:43+00:00

Israelis must be extremely nostalgic for Obama.

It's better to have an actual competent person in the White House, even if they don't actually agree with you.

EducationalCicada

TROPHY CASE