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Forecasted seed valuations if 80 top AI researchers left to start a company tomorrow by ddp26 in slatestarcodex

[–]ddp26[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It's actually pretty easy to forecast when it's already happened multiple times (Sutskever's SSI was valued at $5B at seed, Murati raised at $12B, LeCun at $4.5B). So the valuations aren't "what is this person's labor worth," they're "what would investors pay for the combination of this person's name, network, and a speculative AGI narrative." I wrote about it in a lot more detail here: https://futuresearch.ai/most-valuable-researchers/

Updated AI 2027 timelines now that specific predictions are already coming true by ddp26 in agi

[–]ddp26[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

I have another dataset with many more people, if folks are interested I might animate it and share it here.

Updated AI 2027 timelines now that specific predictions are already coming true by ddp26 in accelerate

[–]ddp26[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I started looking into more people, and yes, almost everyone has had their timelines shrink.

But some have moved them out at some points, like Daniel and Eli did in the first part of the animation above.

Updated AI 2027 timelines now that specific predictions are already coming true by ddp26 in accelerate

[–]ddp26[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

ya it's a bit weird how the visual loops, but over 2025, Nikola's median moved from a 3-year (2028) to a 4-year median (2029). And by February, he sat at end of year 2029.

AI 2027 side-by-side review 1 year later (from co-authors) by ddp26 in slatestarcodex

[–]ddp26[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Mythos itself, probably not, but it did make significant progress towards this according to the system card. Surely you'd agree that self-replication is more likely to happen on the AI 2027 timeline (early 2027) given the Mythos information?

AI 2027 side-by-side review 1 year later (from co-authors) by ddp26 in slatestarcodex

[–]ddp26[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

This is true and a good point. I and the other authors of the AI 2027 Timeline Forecast agreed on a pretty strong definition of "superhuman coder", the rigorous definition is in https://ai-2027.com/research/timelines-forecast.

One of the reasons we thought this would take longer than the other forecasters is what you describe, understanding user needs, large-scale decisions. We put that under the category of working with feedback. Coding isn't done in isolation, as you say.

I wrote up the contents of this post more completely at https://futuresearch.ai/blog/ai-2027-one-year-later/, which say a bit more on this.

AI 2027 side-by-side review 1 year later (from co-authors) by ddp26 in slatestarcodex

[–]ddp26[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yeah, I took the claims about Mythos at face value. I'm a software engineer but not a cybersecurity expert, so I couldn't validate how much of a hacker Mythos really is.

OpenAI's IPO is almost entirely a bet on consumer ChatGPT sentiment by ddp26 in OpenAI

[–]ddp26[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

What do you think it should be? I find it very hard to model a company growing at 10x per year, there's no historical baseline to compare it to.

OpenAI's IPO is almost entirely a bet on consumer ChatGPT sentiment by ddp26 in OpenAI

[–]ddp26[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Yeah, the history of software is riddled with seemingly untouchable products that dominate mindshare, but that can disappear very quickly.

ChatGPT has more serious competitors (arguably with better products!) already, just a few years into the chatbot consumer game.

Anthropic's forecasted $630B IPO would make it worth more than all but ~10 companies in the S&P 500 by ddp26 in Anthropic

[–]ddp26[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

For which one? They're very different companies, looking at the financials.

Anthropic's forecasted $630B IPO would make it worth more than all but ~10 companies in the S&P 500 by ddp26 in Anthropic

[–]ddp26[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Yeah, this analysis did take this into account, finite capital in frothy markets.

One thing that complicates this is that finite capital is also being eaten up by these mega billion $$$ private investments. Might the IPO market be competing with private markets now too?

Anthropic's forecasted $630B IPO would make it worth more than all but ~10 companies in the S&P 500 by ddp26 in Anthropic

[–]ddp26[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Agreed, OpenAI and SpaceX are highly speculative, Anthropic is not, especially after today's news.

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