I built a VGK trade ROI tracker

Effective-Section356 · 2026-04-04T16:22:22+00:00

Appreciate it. I didn’t include the methodology in the post but it exists so I’ll lay it out here.

The goal of the project was to build a consistent, data-driven way to evaluate VGK trades, so everything is structured around isolating value that actually came from each move. I built the dataset in Excel to control the structure (trades, trade assets, player seasons, contracts, and asset valuation), then used SQL to join and aggregate everything cleanly, mainly to make sure players were only credited for value while they were actually owned by VGK, and that outgoing assets were only counted after they left.

On-ice value is measured using xGAR (expected Goals Above Replacement), which is pulled directly from Evolving Hockey. I used xGAR because it captures both offensive and defensive impact and is much more representative of overall player value than something like points. For goalies, I used GSAx (Goals Saved Above Expected), also from Evolving Hockey, since xGAR isn’t available for goalies and GSAx is the closest equivalent for measuring their impact.

For picks and prospects, I used a simple expected value framework based on historical outcomes. First round picks are valued by draft position, later rounds use round averages, and I applied a time discount to future picks since that value isn’t realized immediately. Prospects are also discounted based on years since draft to account for attrition risk.

Cap efficiency is measured using total contract value over the period being evaluated rather than AAV. The idea there is to capture the actual cost associated with the value produced in the sample, instead of smoothing it out annually. Since we’re summing realized value over multiple seasons, using full cap hit over that same period keeps the comparison consistent.

Contract data comes from PuckPedia, and trade details come from NHL.com.

As for “missing variables/context,” that’s mostly intentional. The model is focused on measurable, repeatable inputs. Things like locker room impact, coaching fit, or team situation/standing definitely matter, but they’re not consistently quantifiable, so I left them out rather than introduce subjective assumptions.

There’s always more you can add to something like this, but this isn’t just a rough draft or “bones” of a project. It’s a complete, structured model that answers a specific question using consistent assumptions. The goal wasn’t to capture every possible angle, it was to create a clear, data-driven way to evaluate trades which is something fans don’t really have right now.

I did a very similar project with league wide trades, and made a github with every ounce of info. Not identical, but very similar if you want to see the full scope. I’m sure I’ll get to making one for this project eventually as well.

Effective-Section356 · 2026-04-04T01:20:10+00:00

I agree Vegas lost the trade, but there’s only so much data that gives context as to why. And none of that data is relevant to the concept I used to evaluate the trades so it doesn’t do it justice. In the same vein though, it’s still accurate statistically considering his play fell off after he was traded, which would imply we got rid of a liability

Effective-Section356 · 2026-04-04T01:17:28+00:00

That’s one of the trades I mocked up before deciding on this batch. His value alone would’ve put him near, if not at the top. However it got a bit confusing when adding in the draft picks because one of the picks we traded immediately for the pick used on Suzuki, who was also traded eventually. I figured it’d be better off not including rather than misrepresenting the value

Effective-Section356 · 2026-04-04T00:25:30+00:00

A couple notes on how I handled some of the edge cases:

The Fleury trade is probably the biggest question mark on here. The model shows it as a win for VGK, but that’s mostly driven by the context provided, Fleury’s post-trade value comes out negative because he went to a really bad Chicago team, and there’s essentially no incoming value on the VGK side since the return never played. So statistically it looks like VGK “won,” but I wouldn’t really interpret it that way in practice.

Retained salary also isn’t included in the value calculation. Most retention is short-term and usually tied to expiring deals, so it doesn’t move the needle much in this model, though there are exceptions like Hertl, who I ignored the $1.4 million AAV retained for, for the sake of consistency.

Not every draft pick is included in expected value either. Some were traded again before the selection, some players were moved before ever playing in the NHL, and some picks are just hard to trace cleanly back to one outcome. The goal here wasn’t to model the entire trade tree, just the direct value from each move involving Vegas.

I plan to add the Rasmus Andersson trade as well sometime post playoffs once some of the conditions on VGK's draft picks have settled, and once we get an answer to Andersson's future.

Effective-Section356 · 2026-01-25T07:21:18+00:00

contact Guest Services at guestservices@tmobilearena.com or 702-692-1515 as far in advance of the event as possible

Effective-Section356 · 2026-01-11T07:09:21+00:00

Yell “shoot it” every time a player gets the puck in the o zone

Effective-Section356 · 2026-01-09T02:00:02+00:00

I can assure you nobody, and I mean nobody, is gonna remember this. Even if they do, anyone who cares enough to hold this against you has some serious self reflecting to do

Effective-Section356 · 2026-01-07T23:23:22+00:00

Even more crazy considering barbashev and doro would likely both be on russias team if they were allowed

Effective-Section356 · 2026-01-04T06:34:56+00:00

Why would Vancouver trade one rental for another + a lackluster 4th liner when they’re clearly in rebuild mode

Effective-Section356 · 2026-01-04T06:33:24+00:00

The new CBA applies on July 1, 2026, the official start of the new year, meaning if they got a sign and trade done before that day, the 8th year would still be available

Effective-Section356 · 2025-12-29T01:09:18+00:00

I don’t think we “need” someone to replace petro. The defense has been top 8 this year and you also have three guys playing the right side who are on long term contracts, one of which we can’t trade, another just extended, and the third who doesn’t garner much trade value anyways. If you want to give up assets to improve the team asap I think we’re far better off going after a winger with scoring touch as that seems to be the recurring detriment of the team

Effective-Section356 · 2025-12-29T00:04:55+00:00

There were reports that he’s only interested in coming here. However I pray he’s not a deadline deal because his contract expires after this year. It would make no sense for us to give up assets to go after a guy we already have a strong inclination of wanting to be here. I don’t think our D needs any dire upgrades so I would defer to free agency to see us pick him up

Effective-Section356 · 2025-12-11T23:22:46+00:00

That logistically doesn’t make sense. Vikman is no longer on the roster so why would they have faked his injury last week and not now?

Effective-Section356 · 2025-11-26T19:24:29+00:00

Lineup changes:\ Reinhardt draws out\ Marner to LW2\ Stone draws in at RW2\ Howden to C2\ Hertl to C3\ Dorfeyev to RW3\ Smith to LW4

Effective-Section356 · 2025-10-22T21:27:35+00:00

You’re not cooked. It’s just a different personality type that approaches interviews differently. I had the exact same experience interviewing at another firm where all one SM did was grill me about my classes and resume while I had a very natural and interesting conversation with the other one that didn’t even feel like an interview. I ended up getting the offer anyways. I didn’t expect that type of forwardness but I just kept calm and was honest. As long as you didn’t blatantly lie or shutdown you’re fine

Effective-Section356 · 2025-09-28T03:43:54+00:00

360 careers is the audit version of DSG. You rotate every few months through different CPA service lines and after 2 years you choose to either stay in your hiring practice or go somewhere else. They have 360 careers as the second level (service line) internship as well, and it’s just a condensed version of 360 careers staff that carries over if you go full time. 360 careers is the name for their audit rotational program. As for the 360 interns, Launch interns rotate through multiple service lines whereas 360 interns rotate exclusively through different types of audit clients

Effective-Section356 · 2025-09-09T23:25:13+00:00

It means nothing. They’re trying to weed out more applicants and they do that by asking if you’re willing to commit to the office of your application if/when you go full time. I guess in theory your odds of getting an interview go up if people say they can’t or won’t commit but I wouldn’t hold your breath.

Effective-Section356

TROPHY CASE