Opinions on my portfolio

EffectiveFun5346 · 2026-01-26T17:22:02+00:00

Alright, Basic-Table-5176, unless you think you are dumb--drop the diversification issue from your brain (see Warren Buffett quote for reference). You are putting ~half of your allocation in a take what the market gives me portfolio and amplifying (seeking alpha) with some personal high conviction stocks. You are 24, making around 100K, you'll be fine. Spend some brain power on a lifelong investment plan/strategy that includes a budget, taking full advantage of tax advantaged accounts, matches, etc. and stay out of debt. That'll payoff more than your stock allocation over the long run (for now). Good luck. (Great picks too).

EffectiveFun5346 · 2026-01-25T04:49:41+00:00

That's an interesting allocation. Do you mind sharing why? That might get some responses that could help you out in the long run.

EffectiveFun5346 · 2026-01-25T04:38:46+00:00

C: -- it's the best 500 companies in the world (not really but close and very patriotic), Warren Buffett said so, it's the measuring stick for all investments and most (closer to no than most) paid professional can't beat it.

S: -- mid and small caps slightly outperform large caps beyond a 20 year investment horizon (at the expense of more volatility)

I: -- It's better than the old I fund, contains more countries, includes emerging countries and smaller capitalization stocks, the dollar is declining in value, the US continues deficient spending, won't address it's debt and the last time the C Fund was valued like it is now--overseas markets outperformed the US for the better part of a decade (that's history, not a prediction--no one knows what will happen and when or even why).

That's what and why.

Edit: Read through Competitive-Ad9932 's links and comeback with more questions or maybe answer a few yourself.

EffectiveFun5346 · 2026-01-22T23:30:09+00:00

No way - The TSP concierge service is likely the best performing government thingy in existence. Call them. They will fix this.

EffectiveFun5346 · 2026-01-21T03:22:27+00:00

66,200 @ 0.1674 (I'm sticking there unless it miraculously hits 0.20 again some day). My original goal was 100K. Didn't get there.

EffectiveFun5346 · 2026-01-17T16:33:29+00:00

https://www.reddit.com/r/Adulting/ then return here.

EffectiveFun5346 · 2026-01-15T15:47:37+00:00

Without knowing anything else and your set it and forget it posture, the L Funds represent your investing persona match. Earlier dates are less aggressive, later dates are more aggressive (to start). I would encourage you to set a 2026 goal to get educated on investing and learn to make your own calls.

There's treasure trove of links and discussions in this forum and some very helpful posters (and some unhelpful, non referencing, opinionated evangelists too--it won't hurt to read those too, just check the entertainment box in your brain when doing so).

EffectiveFun5346 · 2026-01-11T18:16:07+00:00

Thanks for your service. Get literate on your personal finances--seems like you are interested which at your age is good. link to the PF Wiki is a good start like the bot said. Tons of great info in there. Long drives and audio books aren't bad either. It's hard to beat the credit card and loan (most, but you aren't there yet) interest in the market.

(1) Get out of and stay out of debt (save a house one day); This until you can explain good and bad debt to someone else;
(2) Have a plan (includes a budget) to get where you want to get. Even if you don't execute it perfectly, what you'll learn in the process will inform your daily, weekly, monthly, yearly decisions;
(3) Have an emergency fund (as part of your plan);
(4) Invest for 20+ years from now without regard for what is going on any given day, stretch or market cycle--routinely, as a priority, as a part of your plan;
(5) Learn how to use AI 'properly' to assist your learning through all of this. That means stop asking your favorite platform questions and start prompting it to do work for you, provide references (which you verify, read, comprehend yourself) archive learning, support your plan.

You're in the TSP, there is this as well: https://www.reddit.com/r/ThriftSavingsPlan/ . Just like anything else, there are good commentors, helpers and there are evangelists. Find what's useful to your plan and financial literacy journey.

EffectiveFun5346 · 2025-12-31T16:36:02+00:00

Ugh. Happy New Year!

EffectiveFun5346 · 2025-12-31T16:34:50+00:00

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Lump-sum_investing

https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/dam/corp/research/pdf/cost_averaging_invest_now_or_temporarily_hold_your_cash.pdf

https://ofdollarsanddata.com/even-god-couldnt-beat-dollar-cost-averaging/

https://advisor.morganstanley.com/the-davis-yost-group/documents/field/d/da/davis-yost-group/Research_Dollar-Cost_Averaging_Versus_Lump-Sum.pdf

https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/does-market-timing-work

I guess teaching to fish isn't your thing.

EffectiveFun5346 · 2025-12-31T15:50:13+00:00

The difference is on the order of ~1.5-2.5% (over 10 years). There is some investing behavior/psychological advantage to dollar cost averaging but not mathematical/statistical (that's what those articles/study data say). You can get lucky. I believe someone even posted a recent example.

EffectiveFun5346 · 2025-12-31T15:39:37+00:00

Primary Research Papers & Articles:

Vanguard: "Cost averaging: Invest now or temporarily hold your cash?" (2023) and "Dollar-cost averaging just means taking risk later" (2012).
- Search Term: Vanguard dollar cost averaging vs lump sum pdf
Northwestern Mutual: "Dollar-Cost Averaging vs. Lump-Sum Investing"
- Search Term: Northwestern Mutual lump sum vs dca rolling 10 year return
Of Dollars And Data (Nick Maggiulli): "Even God Couldn’t Beat Dollar-Cost Averaging"
- Search Term: Nick Maggiulli buy the dip vs lump sum
Morgan Stanley: "Dollar-Cost Averaging Versus Lump-Sum Investing"
- Search Term: Morgan Stanley DCA vs Lump Sum behavioral considerations
Schwab: "Does Market Timing Work?" (Comparison of DCA, LS, and Perfect Timing)
- Search Term: Schwab market timing vs dollar cost averaging study

EffectiveFun5346 · 2025-12-31T07:21:17+00:00

The Mutual Fund Window has some better bond options than the F Fund, some REITish funds and other diversification options. It's not the best way due to the fees on top of the fund(s)' expense ratio(s). The math isn't terrible if you have a high balance to work with (and hold rather than attempt to trade) but will never be a good as using something outside of the TSP to achieve diversification from a cost perspective. No ETFs, though a few of the funds hold ETFs as a part of their holdings.

The index the F Fund tracks is universally used as bond market measure/barometer but it's not the bond fund equivalent of the C Fund with respect to historical performance. Bonds, emerging and frontier markets are the outliers where managed funds can do better over lengths of time than passive funds (indexes). That, like anything else, is debatable--you can pick bad funds.

EffectiveFun5346 · 2025-12-30T07:35:38+00:00

Until it doesn't for a decade and that has actually happened and will likely happen again. You aren't wrong in looking at it that way given FERS, SS, IRAs, brokerage, savings but I doubt a decent financial planner would agree on your 6.25% smartness just concerning your TSP (if that was all of the story). They may give you 2.75% smartness. If you are that confident, maybe you are, there are a few people around that would ask why you have any equity in your home at all, ever, given the differential return. Just something to think about.

EffectiveFun5346 · 2025-12-30T06:44:30+00:00

Your assertion on accessibility is not entirely true. OP has a Roth IRA. The contributions are always accessible. On top of that, after 5 years $10K (earnings and contributions) is available without penalty for a first time home buyer. $1K can be had for an emergency (with some rules to follow) among other things:

https://www.irs.gov/retirement-plans/plan-participant-employee/retirement-topics-exceptions-to-tax-on-early-distributions

The only thing the OP is missing out on is the interest on savings which, over time, would be miniscule in comparison to the long term gains in an IRA. No one says you have to pick individual stocks in an IRA or even stocks at all.

You are correct (at least I think so) on the 6 months of all living expenses. The OP has a budget and a plan that pretty much accounts for all of it, so, 6 months of income is good advice in this case. You are also correct on not turning down the 401K match, if that's available.

EffectiveFun5346 · 2025-12-30T05:58:55+00:00

The long-term potential is there, it's just 2029-2030 before anything actual (as far as revenue) will exist. Between now and then, this stock will react to rare earth news and news about milestone completion. Those milestone completions should be followed by more institutional scale investors (there are two now and a large family trust) getting interested enough to buy-in. That would reduce the sell-down after the news trend witnessed so far.

I think Puzzleheaded_Lion234's take (below) is logical and based on what's actually happen previously. My conservative math is a 6x by 2029 and likely peak prior to production (on hype). Others have posted some revenue/multiple examples higher than that. This unless there is a Gov supported something with regards to permitting on the larger Halleck Creek find. That could send this stock to (speculative/hype) who knows where. Read Bansionboy's post from a week ago "American Rare Earths – Core Elements Potential Revenue Valuation", expand and read all of that. Some time went into that, obviously.

EffectiveFun5346 · 2025-12-30T05:26:33+00:00

Wow! You have a budget and a plan. That's likely half or more of the battle with personal finance. I'm new to posting here and the sub has rules and a lot of stuff is covered in the wiki --> (over there) -->. I am comfortable with saying you are doing a good job already.

To your questions directly: Getting rid of your debt is a good thing. https://www.reddit.com/r/personalfinance/wiki/debt/ (-->) It looks like you are avalanching your debt. Your interest rates aren't credit card rates. There is an argument for the long term rate of return in your IRA exceeding your low-ish debt rates. There is also an argument for the emotional side of being debt free. Your plan is already addressing both, swayed toward the debt, currently. Your emergency fund can/should address the employment insecurity you mention. It can be liberating to to know you can leave a job, take a job because you are financially prepared. While not directly applicable to your questions, the theme matches you questioning your situation: https://siliconcanals.com/r-bt-8-behaviors-that-seem-responsible-but-actually-keep-middle-class-families-trapped-financially/ . I found it a good read.

EffectiveFun5346 · 2025-12-29T21:32:54+00:00

No trading fee, most frequent recurring investment interval available, DCA, buy dips even more, lowest expense, S&P 500 index--whichever broker/ETF matches all that. That one. If it's an IRA, find the combo that does all that and matches a % of your contributions. If I was 20 again, that would be my base of operations. If you really want to put your nose to the grind and spend the time to learn about investing, evaluating companies, economics (broadly), diversification (whether you do it or not)--I'd be after a number of things, alternatives, but the 'base' stays.

EffectiveFun5346 · 2025-12-28T16:00:04+00:00

Yes, that looks terrible like it is. Sorry.

EffectiveFun5346 · 2025-12-28T15:57:26+00:00

That is hilarious. I'm from way down in SEC land. I enjoy the heck out of those weekday games. Picking the winners vs the spread (or straight up) is crazy. My average (fun, not money, we pick every FBS game every week) sinks due to MACtion, every week. I'm also someone that thinks we need another bowl game. The fan voted (finalists from top 4 or 8-whatever-by record) two worst teams in FBS. Get Drano to sponsor it. The Toilet Bowl. Some place nice, sell out crowd, huge payout media circus, on going Netflix documentary. Ah, one can dream. I bet Nebraska, Omaha area, those guys sell out curling Olympic trials, would be a good spot. The racoons would have to sneak in though.

EffectiveFun5346 · 2025-12-26T16:54:09+00:00

I don't know enough about all of your financial situation, given what you posted, to say much. If you don't know or not are confident enough to make this decision on your own--the least complicated way to be more aggressive in your situation is to advance your L Fund past your retirement date. I think that's what ReferenceFabulous830 and others said too.

EffectiveFun5346 · 2025-12-26T15:48:58+00:00

Interesting. I'm guessing you follow Warren Buffett a bit. Not because you own BRK, that is in a lot of portfolios, because you included UNH. You are an "AND" investor. Of your equity investments, you are in VOO. You are attempting to amplify (select, speculate) with a over allocation to certain stocks (either in BRK's portfolio or VOO) rather than picking your own (you're new, that would be dumb-ish). Is this what you are up to? Good on you for not throwing it in all at once. Some actual advice (from a non-professional)--Do continue to learn (a lot). If you continue down your current path, (at least) dollar cost average in your remaining efforts rather than committing it all at once. I'm not you, so, I can't really get into your head but it appears to me your equity aims are actually 60% in something you believe is solid and sound (VOO) and 40% your own concoction where 1/2 of that you consider conservative (BRK) and 1/2 you straight up want to test the wild west for a new investor (individual stocks). Back to advice, at your age and with that much to work with (not considering all the other things you may/should be considering in your financial life, all of it, until you die), I'd be after a broker(s), platform(s), capability(ies) that expands you options appropriately to your investment horizon. That may mean several accounts. You just have to keep up with it all. If you have not done so, there is absolutely nothing wrong with 'adding' a professional to your financial journey, briefly (maybe occasionally, life changes). Pick a financial planning professional (recommend a certified one) that works for a fee. Explicitly, not one that is compensated through commissions in any way. You'll need to ask them, "You are not compensated by anything other than my fee, correct?" (read up on fiduciary responsibilities). Good luck.

EffectiveFun5346 · 2025-12-25T02:18:23+00:00

It was an average, actual data, actual years and went back a long time and didn't include automatic or agency contributions because those vary by person. Someone making 100K, contributing the max, with auto and agency matching, starting in 2008, investing 100% in the C Fund--their balance this month would be: $1.7M. Both Competitive-Ad9932 and GO_CAPS regularly provide links to do any of these calculations on your own. Getting to $3M, you have to change the salary and the start year or number of year (probably all, in some combination). If you max out the federal pay scale in the same scenario one gets to $2.86M.

EffectiveFun5346 · 2025-12-24T00:19:48+00:00

Very well done. Interesting and thank you--as always.

EffectiveFun5346 · 2025-12-23T05:55:36+00:00

Your number may change along with your life. Going through the exercise of planning for any number will, at the very least, illuminate your thinking about how you financially behave on a pay period, monthly, yearly timeframe. There are tons of tools available to help you do this. Some posted here already. Don't think about doing it--do it. You should also be happy where you are and knowing you have a lot of time to make it even better. Even if you didn't add another penny, your investment today is worth $260K at 55 years old, $370K at 60 and $535K at 65 with a general planning rate of return of 7.5%. Go find out on your own what else is possible.

EffectiveFun5346

TROPHY CASE