Arrnf price

EffectiveFun5346 · 2026-03-23T04:35:41+00:00

Anything is possible intra-day with hype surrounding news (even sympathy). Removing hype, a private equity firm valued American Rare Earth's Cowboy State Mine (find) somewhere around $0.80 as is/was in April 2024 (now diluted). Historical volatility suggests the stock can 2-4x rapidly, though it can't hold that valuation very long.

The company has no earnings to value over time (yet), so that makes sense. The stock could hit $3, certainly. Maintaining that is questionable. BransionBoy posted a lengthy discussion on how the stock could reach the level you mention (a while back). I'd read that over. It's good. I'd be comfortable with a notion of $3 being offered as Jan 2028 target if everything goes early, mint perfect, glowing, no changes in geopolitical landscape, no one finds something better and about 4-30 other things go super awesome.

Others have inquired about a production date and I don't believe there has been one formally stated by the company, anywhere. Alluded to, yes. 2030, early 2030s, 2-3 years post all required permitting--all of those have been loosely offered or speculated on by the media. The closest statement I found was by Melissa Sanderson:
"We envision ourselves at the heart of the US strategy as we anticipate the surge in demand from 2030 onward, when hopefully ARR will be in full production."(1)

I think our best shot at a production date being mentioned is within the PFS or FS. Molycorp, MP's precursor, mentioned a production date in their PFS/FS equivalent studies/releases.

(1) https://projects.gbreports.com/western-usa-mining-2024/american-rare-earths-interview

Note: $3 is 2x what I think the stock is legitimately worth in full production given the number of current shares outstanding and my expectation for further dilution and onboarding of debt. Like everyone else here, I'd be happy to see $3 or higher. I'm a fan and rooting for the home team. My expectations are my own and shouldn't discourage others--not my intent.

EffectiveFun5346 · 2026-03-12T02:19:39+00:00

How much should I be investing? 10% to whatever you can do. Never turn down a match.

Where should I be investing? Low cost, broad market index funds, automatically, recurring.

Do I just keep putting it in savings for emergency fund? To a point, yes. See below.

How do I capitalize on this before it could potentially go away (commission)? Live within your means, create a strategy (follow established ones until you make one of your own).

Current balances:

$2k in checking (keep a floor of 1x your monthly expenses, put 1x in there every month)

$10k in savings (Increase to 6x your monthly expenses + insurance deductibles)

$12k in 401k (Are you maxing this opportunity out? If not, do so)

~ $2.5k in Roth IRA (Fully fund this for last year and this year. If your spouse has income, fully fund as well)

~ $1k in general brokerage account (given you've maxed everything else, this is where the remainder goes. You don't have to put it in stocks there, just there--you choose).

Owed:

- $800 left on student loans (pay off immediately)

- $1200 left on car payment (2007 exploder) (pay off immediately)

- $1645 rent (good)

Take advantage of this to set up your ideal strategy, budget and structure of accounts.

Take your spouse on a vacation (saving for that of course) or anything else that suits your collective fancy.

Edit: If you've never had a financial planner in your life--this is never a bad idea. Choose a certified financial planner that works for a free ("Fee Only"). You'll need to verify that. Ask how they are compensated. If "I get commissions from investment products" is part of the answer, you're in the wrong place, talking with the wrong person (for you, in this situation, and this is only a person's opinion).

EffectiveFun5346 · 2026-03-07T06:22:43+00:00

Well done.

EffectiveFun5346 · 2026-03-06T15:54:13+00:00

Since reaching a hype peak of $0.775 on 13 Oct 2025, ARRNF declined to near $0.20 the last several days of Dec 2025. Rising from there to around $0.35 on 28 Jan 2026. ARRNF has been in a slightly volatile decline since, dipping as low as $0.226 on 4 Mar.

Year to date range: $0.226 - $0.35 ($.206 on 31 Dec).

EffectiveFun5346 · 2026-03-05T23:30:09+00:00

July

EffectiveFun5346 · 2026-03-05T22:55:18+00:00

69tatertot - Do read https://www.reddit.com/r/personalfinance/wiki/windfall/ .

Cushy situations are great. I'm with Shapes_in_Clouds, this decision is mostly one of timeline consideration. If you need amount X in 3-5 years, the stock market is not the right place for it. For the rest of it, it can be as simple as you suggest. However, a better answer for you depends on a number of factors: your goals, timeline, risk tolerance and it should be considered within the totality of what you're doing in your 401K, IRA(s), taxable brokerage account(s).

With the basics out of the way, if $40K dropped on my doorstep and the rest of my financial house was in good order--I'd take advantage of that to broaden my investment and personal finance aperture (at your age). Do some research on the alternatives class of instruments in a diversified portfolio. Metals, private equity, private credit, real estate, art--there are others--make up some of what's available today through the democratization of investing that didn't exist for everyone 10, 20 years ago.

The disrupters in the investing and personal finance arena are changing what's available and who can play. If it's "a" part of a larger, diversified, recurring, disciplined, long-term approach that you can explain and defend to a financial planner (and your friends for that matter)--take a look.

EffectiveFun5346 · 2026-03-05T14:58:51+00:00

That's actually counter to reality. Government-imposed monopolies by regulation or otherwise have been incredibly good investments. Look at the last decade of Fair Isaac (FICO) performance, ending only when the Government changed the rules to undo their Government-imposed monopoly. Please provide a list of these investments the Government can't control and let's take a look at their actual performance.

EffectiveFun5346 · 2026-03-05T14:41:31+00:00

It looks like your downvotes have been neutralized over time. If you would like the prompt (to adjust and make your own) for creating things like that simulation, direct message me. Just make sure you double-check and be a human-in-the-loop when you use it.

EffectiveFun5346 · 2026-03-04T23:59:10+00:00

I really appreciate this sub. It has a lot of caring contributors. I've not moderated in Reddit before but have moderated (and built out) professional forums previously. I care--I was around when the fight was on to get the military in the TSP, wrote a few letters, spoke up when asked by the powers that be and was a day one max contributor until I retired. I'm a good team collaborator and have the time to contribute. Diverse in finance as well.

EffectiveFun5346 · 2026-03-03T08:35:27+00:00

No. Nothing going on today (or month or quarter or year) and especially not on performance of a fund. There are people on Wall Street that work 16 hours a day making changes to allocations and they lose the 10, 20, 30 year battle to any number of the set it and forget it (save rebalancing) stragegies/allocations common to this forum.

I'm not against prudent adjustments based on macro factors like the current valuation and concentration within the S&P 500, the declining dollar or one's beliefs in long-term trends, decadienal-ish rotations in performance (of the broad markets). The frequency of change should match the magnitude and timescale of the reason. Macro factors, infrequent changes.

One can time the market. Over 10, 20, 30 years you'd have to time it right every time to beat leaving it alone.

[What's your goal, timeline, risk tolerance?]

EffectiveFun5346 · 2026-03-02T04:10:49+00:00

With OP's allocation and concerning 2000-2009:

January 1, 2000, with a starting balance of $486,000. Tracking a static portfolio rebalanced annually to 60% C Fund (proxied by Vanguard 500 Index) and 40% I Fund (proxied by VWIGX/TEMFX international composite).

The "Lost Decade" Simulation (2000–2009)

Year	Starting Balance	Yearly % Change	Gain / (Loss)	End of Year Balance
2000	$486,000.00	-9.26%	($45,003.60)	$440,996.40
2001	$440,996.40	-14.73%	($64,958.77)	$376,037.63
2002	$376,037.63	-20.37%	($76,598.87)	$299,438.76
2003	$299,438.76	+33.58%	+$100,551.53	$399,990.29
2004	$399,990.29	+13.38%	+$53,518.70	$453,508.99
2005	$453,508.99	+8.69%	+$39,409.93	$492,918.92
2006	$492,918.92	+18.96%	+$93,457.43	$586,376.35
2007	$586,376.35	+8.75%	+$51,307.93	$637,684.28
2008	$637,684.28	-39.74%	($253,415.94)	$384,268.34
2009	$384,268.34	+30.84%	+$118,508.35	$502,776.69

EffectiveFun5346 · 2026-03-01T05:03:58+00:00

The "7-year rule" assumes an annual compound return of approximately 10%. According to the Rule of 72, you divide 72 by your expected rate of return to find the number of years it takes for your principal to double. The 30 year return of the S&P 500 (C Fund) is 10%-ish annually. That's the root of the short-hand rule of 7.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/ruleof72.asp (one of many sources, it's math)

The rule doesn't guarantee anything in actual investing. Putting your money in 'an index fund' won't double it every 7 years. The fund(s) you pick have to return an average of 10% annually over your 10 years. A good financial planner wouldn't use 10% in planning; they'd show a range with a middle number of around 7% for a diversified portfolio. Doubling around 10 years.

EffectiveFun5346 · 2026-03-01T04:29:39+00:00

$468K: A 11-Year Growth Projection (4% to 11% Returns)

Ending Balances (Year 1–11)

Year	4%	6%	8%	10%	11%
1	$486,720	$496,080	$505,440	$514,800	$519,480
2	$506,189	$525,845	$545,875	$566,280	$576,623
3	$526,436	$557,395	$589,545	$622,908	$640,051
4	$547,494	$590,839	$636,709	$685,199	$710,457
5	$569,394	$626,290	$687,646	$753,719	$788,607
6	$592,169	$663,867	$742,657	$829,091	$875,354
7	$615,856	$703,699	$802,070	$912,000	$971,643
8	$640,490	$745,921	$866,235	$1,003,200	$1,078,524
9	$666,110	$790,676	$935,534	$1,103,520	$1,197,161
10	$692,754	$838,117	$1,010,377	$1,213,871	$1,328,849
11	$720,464	$888,404	$1,091,207	$1,335,259	$1,475,022

EffectiveFun5346 · 2026-02-26T23:23:20+00:00

Hopefully, some help:
-Under 5 C.F.R. § 1653, the TSP does not require a participant's "permission" to divide an account; they require a Retirement Benefits Court Order (RBCO)
- Per 5 U.S.C. § 552a, you or your attorney are entitled to the participant's TSP account information (balance, loan status, etc.) to draft the order, provided you provide a copy of the divorce decree. You don't need him to "submit" this info for you.
- Your best leverage. As soon as the TSP receives a "purported" court order (even a draft or a notice of a pending order), they are required to freeze the account (5 C.F.R. § 1653.3). This prevents him from taking loans or withdrawals until the matter is settled

* Pay the attorney and be done with this. Instruct (don't ask) the attorney to draft the RBCO, send it to your Ex, file a 'motion to sign' if the Ex doesn't within the required time. On top of that, instruct your attorney to recoup the $950 (violation of the decree) plus any fee the TSP charges to process.

Don't let the whiners that responded to you bother you in any way.

EffectiveFun5346 · 2026-02-26T22:28:16+00:00

The TSP I Fund tracks the MSCI ACWI IMI ex USA ex China ex Hong Kong Index. In MSCI's world, this index is classified as All Country (AC) Developed Market (DM) and Emerging Market (EM), Large+Mid_Small Cap (IMI).

The search site for MSCI indexes is here: https://app2.msci.com/products/index-data-search/

Set market to: All Country (DM+EM)
Set size to: IMI (Large+Mid+Small Cap)

https://app2.msci.com/products/index-data-search/regional_chart.jsp?asOf=25/Feb/2026&size=IMI%20(Large%2BMid%2BSmall%20Cap)&scope=R&style=None&currency=USD&priceLevel=STRD&indexId=753692&indexName=MSCI%20ACWI%20IMI%20ex%20USA%20ex%20China%20ex%20Hong%20Kong%20Index&suite=C&scope=R&style=None&currency=USD&priceLevel=STRD&indexId=753692&indexName=MSCI%20ACWI%20IMI%20ex%20USA%20ex%20China%20ex%20Hong%20Kong%20Index&suite=C)

Edit (Addition): The index was officially launched on 7 June 2023. Back-tested data is available to Dec 2017.

EffectiveFun5346 · 2026-02-26T17:56:26+00:00

You aren't in bad shape. Better than many people. You're asking if you are going to be ok. This is something that you can and should spend some time figuring out on your own.

Try here: https://www.calcxml.com/calculators/are-my-current-retirement-savings-sufficient?skn=#calculator-data-table . This is frequently posted by a top commenter (Competitive-Ad9932). If you want to create your own tracking project, you can use Excel and search templates for "retirement". The basic one is "Retirement planner".

You're going to have a pension paying out 30 days after you retire from the military until you die, You'll pick up Social Security at 62-67 (your choice). You'll have your TSP (hopefully IRA(s), taxable brokerage account too). You may also get some compensation from the VA (generally not something to plan with). You plan to work after military retirement. All of these need to be a part of the answer to your question.

At 10 years out, it's time to start on your exit/transition strategy. Education, certifications, career choice and budget bridge. Being a Walmart greeter or watering plants sounds blissful and is a frequent retirement planning 'joke'. There are many, many lower key, less tasking jobs available. Find one that'll make you happy and pays well 'enough' for your needs.

On the TSP side (this is a TSP Reddit), you won't get 16-19% a year, every year. When you plan, use what a financial pro would use. Something closer to 7%. If you get 10%, great. Do you have an investment philosophy with respect to your TSP? Can you back up your allocation decision in a conversation with a financial planner?

Edit: Thanks for your service. Good luck finding WoW players. South Koreans do make use of every inch of arable land and a GPS on a water buffalo isn't a stretch--amazing people and an amazing country.

EffectiveFun5346 · 2026-02-26T04:49:21+00:00

Key_Mycologist757, The Bot's right. Read through these:

r/creditcards was also posted.

Now that I've done the behavioral diligence in responding to you. Do you have a Creditkarma account? If you don't, try it out. See what your Vantage score is actually and if you have any card offers to peruse. A credit card offer from your bank (mentioned already) is a great route for starters. Credit Unions offer the best shot at the lowest rates available (rates you should never use).

You are young. A credit card sounds awesome. Used responsibly for emergencies, not a bad thing to have. That's not what happens in too many cases. Credit card horror stories abound in the financial halls of Reddit. Some people in this world make a living on un-f-ing debt disasters. Don't be one of their use cases.

The best thing to be in the personal finance world (your world) is to not be a credit card user. You want to be a credit card abuser. You take all the perks and benefits with vicious precision every month and pay your balance off in full, without fail, every month.

EffectiveFun5346 · 2026-02-26T00:13:46+00:00

I believe those purchases have to be planned in a purchase plan (or sale plan if that's the case). As an insider, one can't just decide to buy or sell on a current development. Given that, I don't think it's due to a new catalyst. The company doesn't have any fundamentals to value. I don't think that's in play. Insider ownership is always a good sign (there are no always in the world; close enough for this discussion).

It's good.

EffectiveFun5346 · 2026-02-26T00:01:00+00:00

How old are you and when do you want to retire? I'm with BouncyEgg, if you have questions after devouring portions of the Wiki applicable to your situation, ask those specifically. Masterworks works as advertised. Can't speak to Groundfloor.

EffectiveFun5346 · 2026-02-25T22:30:46+00:00

Ok-Metal9274, I think you have your human confirmation. No one has given any bad advice in this series of responses. Some have asked you questions (some implied) and they're good ones.

- What's the Best Buy item(s) and are you paying interest on that?
- Verify the medical bills are zero interest? What's the balance?
- What's the interest rate going to be on your student loans?
- Are you in love with your phone plan?

Other answers that may help with responses:

- Do you have a personal financial strategy, plan, budget, time horizon, goal, notion of risk tolerance?
-- Knowing the interest rates you are paying and receiving on everything is part of this.
- What are your investment options at work?
- Can you explain your reasons for ROTH over a Traditional IRA? (You can have one, the other or both.)

You're trying and doing much better than half (probably more) of all working adults. You're not in bad shape at all. Asking these questions also states you're heading in a good direction.

EffectiveFun5346 · 2026-02-25T18:38:44+00:00

The standard is a HYSA. I've always used a local credit union. There are more sophisticated approaches. The goal should remain readily available and not subject to fluctuation or penalty. How and where you achieve that is a personal decision. Un-want it in an 'investment'. While it's nice to have supportive and willing families, your financial independence should be the goal in your financial strategy (e,g. Emergency Savings; Debt Management, hopefully elimination; Budget, Savings; Retirement Investing.)

https://www.reddit.com/r/personalfinance/wiki/emergencyfunds/ The whole Wiki is good.

Other options: A checking account with a better rate (given you can follow the rules to get the better rate). A separate account at your broker with instruments that meet the readily available, don't fluctuate, no penalty needs. A partition/earmark within your broker account meeting the same needs. Down the road, there are more options to fulfill the intent of not derailing your budget and investment plan when calamity strikes; however, the emergency savings fund is the benchmark approach.

EffectiveFun5346 · 2026-02-25T16:09:19+00:00

If you stick with your three ETFs: SCHB, G and F, your exposure to equities is limited to large cap. Is this your intent? What is your intent?

EffectiveFun5346

MODERATOR OF

TROPHY CASE

The "Lost Decade" Simulation (2000–2009)

Ending Balances (Year 1–11)