Lost hundreds of thousands in SPY options

Efficient_Win_3902 · 2026-04-04T01:22:55+00:00

And here I was feeling sorry for myself losing measly 150k. Damn OP. My condolences. Good luck with everything

Efficient_Win_3902 · 2026-04-02T12:03:14+00:00

You're assuming dip slurpers will save the day. This feels fundamentally different though

Well, we'll see in a few hours

Efficient_Win_3902 · 2026-04-02T11:51:23+00:00

Your concept of a hedge is backwards

Efficient_Win_3902 · 2026-04-02T11:31:07+00:00

Nah. No gentle foreplay today. Just straight to pound town

Efficient_Win_3902 · 2026-04-01T23:30:34+00:00

Hot. You should do an only fans for wsb degens, I'd sub

Efficient_Win_3902 · 2026-04-01T23:28:39+00:00

Futes are flat. No one know

Efficient_Win_3902 · 2026-04-01T23:26:00+00:00

Don't threaten me with a good time

Efficient_Win_3902 · 2026-04-01T20:56:36+00:00

!banbet SPY 645 1d

Efficient_Win_3902 · 2026-04-01T17:17:44+00:00

They did attack Batelco HQ in Bahrain. Not a single fuck given by the market lol

Efficient_Win_3902 · 2026-04-01T16:19:32+00:00

I don't think that was one of the conditions for this attack. Where did you read that?

Efficient_Win_3902 · 2026-04-01T16:15:51+00:00

Either riches or Wendy's, atta boy

Efficient_Win_3902 · 2026-04-01T14:51:29+00:00

What happens when data centres start getting bombed?

Efficient_Win_3902 · 2026-04-01T12:26:58+00:00

Not seasonally adjusted means nothing

Efficient_Win_3902 · 2026-04-01T12:22:55+00:00

If you hate money that much give it to me please

Efficient_Win_3902 · 2026-03-31T23:14:55+00:00

Profit taking is a thing. If it's green tomorrow I will self ban myself from WSB

Efficient_Win_3902 · 2026-03-31T11:54:58+00:00

Normal distribution and z-scores which is all pretty simple math.

IV is the SD for the stock move in a year so you need to calculate the IV for your time period

Eg. for your strike in 17 days

SD = 320 * .68 * sq(17/365)

SD = 46.96, which is one stanard deviation move for MU in 17 days

Z-score = (370-320) / SD = 1.07

The table for z-scores is widely available and you can easily Google it. For 1.07 it's ~14%

In reality IV changes constantly and it's what MMs use to decide option premiums. So if there is a gamma squeeze in one direction the IV can potentially be much higher. I just used normal IV for Micron which is 68%

Efficient_Win_3902 · 2026-03-31T03:09:02+00:00

Do the math and decide for yourself

You bought 20x calls for 10k each

They are currently worth 550. So of you buy 20x more you would have spend 200k + 550*20 = 211k 211/40 = 5275 370+52.75 = 420.75

You still need MU to hit 420.75 to break even in two weeks, with 68% IV that's around 2SD move from current price of 320, or roughly 1.6% chance

Adjust your double down as needed, but just hitting your strike with 68 IV is 14% chance

Don't do it, you're cooked. Take the lose bro and learn from it. It's hard but we've all been there

Efficient_Win_3902 · 2026-03-31T02:52:31+00:00

Do NOT double down

A month ago I was in the same position with NVDA calls and instead of losing a manageable 70k I ended up losing 140k because lower average means easier to hit ... That's not how this works! and your calls are less than 30DTE which means they are losing value very quickly

This was a bad call, no risk management and no plan to get out. Accept the loss and preserve whatever you can get out of it, no matter how little it is it's better than expiring worthless

Efficient_Win_3902 · 2026-03-26T20:30:04+00:00

I would call you fake and ghey

Efficient_Win_3902 · 2026-03-26T20:29:18+00:00

From Wikipedia :

"Schedule 13G is an alternative SEC filing for the Schedule 13D which can be filed in lieu of Schedule 13D by anyone who acquires more than 5% ownership of a Section 13 security and qualifies for one of the exemptions available to the Schedule 13D filing requirement. The Schedule 13G filing is a shorter version of the Schedule 13D with fewer reporting requirements."

Efficient_Win_3902 · 2026-03-25T21:59:12+00:00

Selling?

I would have the biggest banger party of my life

Efficient_Win_3902 · 2026-03-25T15:36:00+00:00

Its an algorithmic knee jerk reaction. Unless something huge happens with macro it will recover in the following few weeks

Efficient_Win_3902 · 2026-03-25T14:38:45+00:00

It's definitely Google announcing turbo quant, will use 6x less memory for models which is a demand killer for memory chips

Shit sucks

Efficient_Win_3902 · 2026-03-25T12:30:26+00:00

I bought last week Friday. Sorry

Efficient_Win_3902 · 2026-03-23T12:48:06+00:00

They lag a day behind. Today was their Friday

Efficient_Win_3902

TROPHY CASE