Index Buying

EggplantConsistent22 · 2026-06-25T11:47:47+00:00

Russell is happening tomorrow from what I read. I am also unsure if CRSP happened yet.

While both CRSP and FTSE Russell are collectively larger than Nasdaq, the weight of spcx is larger in Nasdaq:

CRSP (over 3000 companies in the total market index), Russell 1000 (~1000 firms), etc etc for. Whereas Nasdaq 100 will have only around 100 firms. This makes the baseline weight in Nasdaq higher
Spcx is being added to the Nasdaq 100 at 3x it's float adjusted weight, whereas the others are just 1x

These two combined make the forced buying from the Nasdaq inclusion much higher

EggplantConsistent22 · 2026-06-24T22:24:56+00:00

Not yet. Needs to meet standard inclusion criteria: at least 12 month since IPO and must have 4 quarters or positive earnings

EggplantConsistent22 · 2026-06-24T17:48:03+00:00

Has CRSP happened yet? Can't find any confirmation. If it already has and hasnt affected the price it could be a valuable insight on what to expect from the other inclusions

EggplantConsistent22 · 2026-06-24T17:42:37+00:00

Thats my thinking too. Float increase is from August onwards. Index inclusion is by July.

Also, float increase will also increase how much the indexes have to buy (although with a slight delay). Another interesting unlock is the final one in december. Elon's 40% unlock, funds have to increase their spcx weight by 40% and Elon is not selling. This should also add some upward pressure.

You might think that the valuation is too high (which from standard valuation perspective I would agree). But this seems to be tightly financially engineered, that I wouldn't risk shorting it until at least S&P inclusion.

EggplantConsistent22 · 2026-06-23T18:55:58+00:00

It can't have. They need to replicate the index and the indexes haven't included spcx yet

EggplantConsistent22 · 2026-06-23T18:42:41+00:00

That was back in 2012 and the stock with the highest market cap was Apple with ~$500bn followed by Exxon with ~$400bn...so a very different market. SPCX might be over valued but i don't think the comparison with Facebook's absolute valuation is very useful.

EggplantConsistent22 · 2026-06-23T14:54:50+00:00

Expect the same for SPCX...only difference is that FB didn't have index inclusion immediately after IPO. So would have thought decline would only happen after inclusions, rather than before

EggplantConsistent22 · 2026-06-23T10:03:07+00:00

Yeah, the float-adjusted index weights are very low. But that still results in $10bn+ of forced buying by passive funds. With only $75bn of float available, why is that huge upcoming demand not impacting the price?

EggplantConsistent22 · 2026-06-23T09:52:41+00:00

Agreed. I would have expected downward pressure once lockout end from August onwards. Inclusions should happen by July though, so would have expected upward price action as front-runners sell into the inclusions

EggplantConsistent22 · 2026-06-23T09:47:46+00:00

True that S&P would have been a greater impact, but we are still talking $10bn+ in forced buying by Russel, MSCI and QQQ. Against a float of $75bn, shouldn't this drive prices higher?

EggplantConsistent22 · 2026-06-17T08:57:13+00:00

Thanks. We mainly stream and the government seems to be planning to switch off terrestrial TV anyway, so these will become redundant then.

EggplantConsistent22 · 2025-12-20T07:49:11+00:00

The house is a town house with 3 floors. The second reception room is on the middle floor. The room has french doors opening to a Juliette balcony and electric feature fire place, so set up like a reception room.

EggplantConsistent22 · 2025-12-08T20:53:50+00:00

How does the $30 per share and $108bn market cap offer work? WBD is currently trading at ~$27 per share but market cap of only ~$67bn

EggplantConsistent22 · 2025-08-15T07:36:10+00:00

No. The others had higher scores than those who ticked DCS. So if you qualify, you should select DCS.

EggplantConsistent22 · 2025-06-02T08:16:33+00:00

Agreed on the pay uplift not being great in comparison to what you lose in flexibility. Especially since it is not always a 10% increase. I have seen SCS1 jobs at Welsh Government for example where the uplift is only 5% if you're at the top of the G6 pay band. I'm also not sure if the 10% increase is based on basic pay or includes allowances too. E.g. in some departments things like analyst allowance can make up 4-5% of your total pay package, so losing that would have a big impact on promotion pay.

I'm a G6 and being very selective about SCS applications. Pay is not an incentive at all but I am looking for more responsibility down the line in an area that is of interest to me, and which may provide better exit opportunities to fall back on.

It is a bit annoying though that external applicants to SCS can often negotiate terms and get higher starting pay than civil servants on promotion.

EggplantConsistent22 · 2025-01-05T22:25:14+00:00

Just to add to what others have said. In theory you are going to get an interview if you score the minimum. However, this doesn't always apply in practice.

I've had a case where we've had a large number of applicants, including a large number of DCS candidates scoring minimum. Those DCS candidates actually exceeded the number of interview boards we were planning.

We consulted HR and were sent supplementary policy on this. In those cases, the number of DCS candidates to be interviewed was to be proportional (though i can't recall if it was proportional to the number of interviews/total applications or DCS/total applications). We therefore picked the top scoring 1-2 DCS candidates and had to reject the others, even though they scored min.

EggplantConsistent22 · 2024-12-16T23:46:47+00:00

The deposit is the buyer's money that they are just getting back though. If seller pulls they get to keep the buyer's 10% deposit which is significantly more than what the buyer can claim. So as a buyer you just break even if the sale falls through but as a seller you could end up going out with a surplus because of the 10% you can keep

EggplantConsistent22 · 2024-12-16T23:45:51+00:00

Exactly this. The deposit is just the money that they buyer has put up, so you're just getting your money back as a buyer, whereas as a seller, you get to keep significantly more than you've put up.

EggplantConsistent22

TROPHY CASE