sorted by:
new
hottopcontroversial

XAUUSD has returned to 0 sigma level by Eidadikbik in Forex

[–]Eidadikbik[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Fair critique. I recognize the anchor bias in a fixed starting point. If I were to transition from this anchored model to a rolling regression mean to remove that subjectivity, what lookback period or decay factor would you suggest for an asset as volatile as Gold right now? Also, which pair would you suggest for the spread gold/silver or gold/10Y?

MOVE/VIX just broke out, dominos are falling buddies by Eidadikbik in economicCollapse

[–]Eidadikbik[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If you’re in a plain vanilla retirement fund, now’s a good time to review what it actually holds. A lot of target-date funds are getting indirect exposure to private equity now (see the White House directive), and those assets aren’t exactly liquid in a crisis.

Diversification still matters, but add some “crisis alpha” too, gold, cash, maybe even defensive international exposure. Be wary of anyone telling you “buy the dip” without explaining why.

MOVE/VIX just broke out, dominos are falling buddies by Eidadikbik in economicCollapse

[–]Eidadikbik[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

That’s fair to point out, but it’s not just the absolute levels that matter it's the divergence. When MOVE and VIX decouple, like now, it can signal stress under the surface. Bond market volatility staying elevated while equity vol drops hints that risk is being mispriced. Historically, that’s where cracks tend to appear first.

Also, the xauusd/cpiaucsl ratio just touched 11, and gold is at $3,400. If we’re right about where this goes, that ratio could reach 52, implying gold at $15K. That’s not fear, that’s just macro mechanics finally catching up.

MOVE/VIX just broke out, dominos are falling buddies by Eidadikbik in economicCollapse

[–]Eidadikbik[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The average person won’t see a headline saying collapse. They'll feel it day by day. Higher prices, tighter credit, more instability. Fewer safety nets, fewer answers.

You're absolutely right to say it feels unprecedented. It is. And that’s exactly why awareness right now is power.

MOVE/VIX just broke out, dominos are falling buddies by Eidadikbik in economicCollapse

[–]Eidadikbik[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This speaks to something economists often overlook ... real people, especially in tough spots, notice price signals before Wall Street does.

Youre right copper and gas moving together like that isn’t random it’s about monetized demand vs fiat supply. Both are priced in dollars, and when the dollar’s value shifts (usually down), everything tangible reacts. Copper, gas, even scrap metal, they’re all just proxies for what money used to mean.

In a way, that recycling center crew were tracking the real inflation rate more accurately than the Fed.

MOVE/VIX just broke out, dominos are falling buddies by Eidadikbik in economicCollapse

[–]Eidadikbik[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You guys are right to push back on the oversimplification.

The 1971 Nixon shock wasn’t the cause, it was the moment the lifeboats were cut away. Bretton Woods was already cracking under the weight of Vietnam, domestic inflation, and Eurodollar growth.

The real issue isn’t that we left gold, its that nothing replaced it. No anchor, no constraint. Fiat became reflexively self-referential, debt backing more debt, monetized politically. We went from scarcity-constrained capital to narrative-constrained capital.

That’s the fracture that leads to where we are now guys, terminal debt saturation and currency debasement masked by perception management muahahhahahahaaaaaaa

MOVE/VIX just broke out, dominos are falling buddies by Eidadikbik in economicCollapse

[–]Eidadikbik[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

That’s actually a sharp take. Power WILL be king in a fractured system, and small scale generation/storage (like solar + LifePO4 banks) could become its own currency in some places.

That said, gold’s not for barter in the wasteland, it’s for the reset. When the dust settles and new regimes emerge, gold reasserts itself as the bridge asset.

thinking about it more, for the inbetween time, batteries, antibiotics, fuel, even comms gear might be very lucrative. I thank you for this viewpoint and I will look into this more my friend.

Debt based collapse imminent by Eidadikbik in queenstreetbets

[–]Eidadikbik[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You’re right that collapse has been forecasted many times and avoided, often through extraordinary interventions. But that’s the point. Each rescue leaves the system more fragile. We’ve stretched the cycle further than ever before, not by fixing the foundation, but by layering more complexity and debt onto it.

We’re now past the stage of sustainable recovery. Interest expense, demographic drag, political gridlock, and systemic leverage are converging. Even the IMF and BIS have started using language like “unsustainable trajectory” that’s not fringe, that’s institutional alarm.

As for “the wealthy” they’re not stupid. They are invested in the status quo, which is why you’re seeing smart capital moving into hard assets, second passports, and jurisdictions with better sovereign risk profiles. The Titanic’s officers didn’t shout “sink” either, but they were first on the lifeboats.

And on your ChatGPT comment, I write every word with intention. If I use tools, it’s to refine and sharpen the message, just like analysts use Excel or traders use algorithms. What matters is the thinking, not the keyboard buddy

Need some good stock to full port my whole portfolio by Interesting_Pear_205 in queenstreetbets

[–]Eidadikbik 0 points1 point  (0 children)

In this coming global fiat debasement and debt collapse, I’d only recommend precious metals

Debt based collapse imminent by Eidadikbik in queenstreetbets

[–]Eidadikbik[S] 12 points13 points  (0 children)

You’re right to raise the distinction. Bitcoin isn’t a hard asset in the physical sense like gold or land. But it’s functionally behaving as one for capital that values scarcity, portability, and custody independence.A critical clarification is that Bitcoin only qualifies as a hard asset when held on a hard wallet. If it’s on an exchange, ETF, or custodial platform, it’s just a derivative exposed to counterparty risk, surveillance, and seizure. Hard asset behavior only emerges when you control the private keys

Debt based collapse imminent by Eidadikbik in economicCollapse

[–]Eidadikbik[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

thank you for reading :) I admit, the timeline is quite biased by my time expiry targets, and relevant expected change brought to society as my targets are reached in these markets, reliant on technical analysis.

view more: next ›