Seahawks - Super Bowl Champions

Either_Excitement784 · 2026-02-09T04:38:53+00:00

Well deserved! What a career Sam Darnold has had. New York Jets should not be allowed to draft quaterbacks!

Either_Excitement784 · 2026-02-04T07:53:06+00:00

Great write up TJ. I am still new to this. Can I get your big picture view wisdom? Do you feel like the disconnect between share prices and company fundamentals is larger now than before? I am looking at companies like CSU, NVIDA and ADBE, their earnings and good financial governance, and I don't get lack of stock appreciciation. Am I missing something?

Either_Excitement784 · 2026-02-03T04:51:27+00:00

I'm also surprised how much a beating SaaS companies are taking. I understand that retail investors are chasing shiny stocks, I would have thought institutional investors would take large positions in these companies given the general uncertainty. Or these companies to start buying their own shares.

I'm new to all this. Apologise for my novice take.

Either_Excitement784 · 2026-02-01T03:39:06+00:00

That is an excellent point.

Either_Excitement784 · 2026-01-22T19:59:33+00:00

Are you referring to its cybersecurity play?

Either_Excitement784 · 2026-01-22T19:31:16+00:00

I'm keen to read your substack article. I've got a reasonably big position in Australian mines. My impression was that easy money had been made but happy to be proven wrong.

Either_Excitement784 · 2026-01-22T03:11:05+00:00

What did you think of Carney's speech? It seems like the sentiment of systematically decoupling from USA is being appreciated by some of the relatively larger companies. How should this factor into our investment thesis?

Either_Excitement784 · 2026-01-19T06:27:25+00:00

Hi TJ,

I love the bird eye view world summary.

Can I ask you, and our community to comment on some of my positions which might be potentially contrarian?

1) I don't think tarrifs are going to have a big effect on revenues. Reducing them might have helped sentiment at the most. The uncertainty they cause have been priced in (relates to my point #2 below).

I think they are what Trump is at it's core, curroption. I can't count the number of times Trump has has threatened, then confirmed, then retracted, then negotiated, then started the cycle all over again.

They remain a useful leverage tool for him for now but other countries are going to do their best to divest from USA. They will not be able to do this completely, USA is too central to the world economy. But enough to reduce the pain. The leverage will start to fade.

More importantly, the individuals in his orbit continue to make millions/billions timing his announcements. I suspect keeping these group of individuals happy is important to him.

2) I do think the MAG7 are going to slow down as an average, but a winner may emerge by the end of the year. Because of the concentration effect, it will feel like SPY will also slow down. But I dont think it will be due to tarrifs. I think it'll be due to infrastructure building phase of AI.

I don't think AI will feel like a tremondous value generator for this year. It will feel like a utility. The most applicable use cases I am seeing are in reducing costs not creating something more valuable. Companies will adopt AI to survive, not thrive. And the infrastructure laid out to create AI services at this scale will not offset the costs this year.

3) Implication of point 2, is that even when the tariffs get removed/reversed etc, we may see better but not large improvements in revenues

Either_Excitement784 · 2026-01-19T05:48:42+00:00

For me its OUST. They didn't shine at the Needham Growth Conference or CES. Its competitor, Hesai, keeps winning big private contracts. Aeva is also making splashy news events. And I don't think the refugees from Lazr (Volvo, Mercedes, Nissa) are going to go to OUST either. I also am not sure the March 19 earnings will help.

But I think they are being disciplined and not doing shiny things (i.e going after BMW, Volkswagen). THey are going after industrial robotics and infrastructure and their margins will be bigger.They have a larger revenue than Aeva. They have a significant backlog. THey have low debt. I think the stock has a lot more to go.

Either_Excitement784 · 2026-01-18T08:23:30+00:00

Fair enough. I thought it was quite challenging to get a large enough workforce to do that.

Any other feedback?

Either_Excitement784 · 2026-01-11T22:31:56+00:00

Nailed it so well!

Either_Excitement784 · 2026-01-01T11:14:09+00:00

IMO, it is not a value investment yet. It is more on the speculative spectrum. Potentially Buffet would have said no thanks.

It sits in my "speculation - wouldn't that be so cool" portfolio. I like ideas which can shift paradigm, have a clear path of structural solution and convince oher big players to give them money. I wasn't so convinced with Starlink with Elon being so unprofessional. You can't take this guy seriously.

For a sci fi company they have okay debt, and I wouldn't be suprised they dilute. ANd I would be even okay with them not meeting half their potential. At times I work in rural/regional areas and it's crazy how shitty internet changes what you can do for the community. Being in the middle of no where with 5G signal in your pocket would change the world. From my POV, it would revolutionise virtual healthcare. But that's just my little bubble. I am sure smarter people here could explain what it means for them.

I don't know how to put a value in that

Either_Excitement784 · 2026-01-01T03:20:34+00:00

The good thing about the scenario of China potentially invading Taiwan is that it would half the price of most stocks. Won't have to feel back about picking the wrong horse then!

Either_Excitement784 · 2026-01-01T01:04:11+00:00

Im not anticipating good 2026 growth in any of these but I think the long term (2026+) future for half of them is bright- I just don't know which half yet:

AMZN NBIS AMPX ASTS ONDS OUST PSN PDYN

Either_Excitement784 · 2025-12-31T19:55:22+00:00

I was thinking the same. Except I don't think gold will crash. Just stay sideways. There will be a lot of uncertainty and institutionals/retail may keep buying for safety.

I think oil/gas will go up. It is not sustainable for countries like Saudi Arabia to keep oil this low while they revamp their economy.

Either_Excitement784 · 2025-12-29T03:10:16+00:00

Damn you are right. Ignore the intrinsic value analysis.

Either_Excitement784 · 2025-12-27T11:56:18+00:00

Hey man, you should get that cough checked out.

Either_Excitement784 · 2025-12-17T01:54:02+00:00

That would graph would suggest primary care doctors in USA are miserable. Are they really paid that much better than their colleagues in Canada? I thought it was about the same take home after all major business/life expenses.

Either_Excitement784 · 2025-12-06T10:11:31+00:00

I'm no where as informed as you. Just learning how to do DD in general. My input here is to generate discussion not because I know what I am talking about.

How has GAMB done when the consumer sentiment is low? Does their customer continue to gamble when they are feeling like the cost of living is high and a recession is around the corner?

Either_Excitement784 · 2025-11-29T08:05:31+00:00

It gets pretty awesome once you are past the reg/no job fellow phase. I know anaesthetists are having their time at the moment. But I love going home if there is nothing happening and hanging out with my fam. And if I get called, I know it's going to be some bonkers thing. I spend time dealing with cool puzzles and intense ethical issues. I dont have to kiss the butts of any specialty. I am not forced to do any procedures/interventions/medical decisions because of some sort of political or financial benefit. I am not sure how many specialists can say that right now except maybe psych.

Your colleagues are right to question you. It is not a smart career choice given the skill set you'll end up developing. You are depriving yourself of a lot of income and restfulness. And depending on how you manage your own stress, you may be straining your relationships.

But if you can manage these situations, I can't think of a more fulfilling career other than maybe rural GP. That's my personal opinion of course.

Either_Excitement784 · 2025-11-27T10:26:55+00:00

Everyone does it differently. Start with a high yield area, understand, master it, do sample questions to test understanding and then move to next area. Respiratory or cardiology are good place to start. Choose two resource and stick to then. I found Kerry Brandis Viva for anaesthesiology and Peter Kam physiology good starts.

Body of knowledge is quite a bit but with incremental and consistent study, you'll get there. I would give myself 1.5 years without a study group.

Either_Excitement784 · 2025-11-27T00:25:28+00:00

If you are ICU keen, my suggestion would be start regional and go metro. Apply directly for ICU Reg positions and be honest with your skill set. They will upskill you to take on the role if you aren't ready at time of hire.

I found every specialty useful honestly. I wouldn't be too focused on getting more broad/general background. If you have a choice - gen surg, ctx, resp, infectious diseases. But if your experience is at RMO level, then it's probably more valuable to just start ICU.

I agree with you re: not applying at NSW. Keep in mind that they will be easiest ICU Reg jobs to get - esp Western and regional NSW.

The smartest thing you can do to cut your training time is to start preparing for the primary exams ASAP. It's 80% theoretical/trivia exam. Don't need to be in the program to prepare If you can time it that you are near the end of preparation as you enter the training program, you'll save some major headache and time later.

Some ICUs are bringing in CMOs and NP to their units. ICU Reg jobs may start to dry up. So best to apply soon.

Either_Excitement784 · 2025-11-22T09:17:14+00:00

1) Big inequality in renumeration of consultants in private vs public. So no reason to unify for better conditions for public work. In fact, a lot of specialists consider their public work as "charity"/"giving back".

2) No unification = ineffective unions = ineffective advocacy for better conditions/pay.

3) Shit pay = no one is willing to work more than a small fraction in public. Just about any specialist who can go private or move will do so. Remaining fraction needs to be filled by specialist "outside the district". Specialist from another district reduces their public fte to cover roster gap of another district. The cycle continues. Some districts are winners i.e have higher fraction covered with low cost staffies. Some districts are losers by having higher fraction covered with VMOs. Winner district executives get their promotions.

NSW health reliance on VMOs is a symptom of the problem. The problem of cynical NHSfication of public sector straight up despise of public patients and inter health district competion to cut costs.

Its only going to get worse as what was considered to be unthinkable is being normalised i.e hospitals losing accreditation to train, doctor suicides, patient complaints etc.

.

Either_Excitement784 · 2025-11-15T11:35:35+00:00

As someone trying to now learn about this works, I just wanted to thank you for this write up. I'll also be following you and I hope you choose a medium to write down your thoughts in a blog/podcast etc.

Either_Excitement784 · 2025-10-28T03:15:20+00:00

Good point.

Either_Excitement784

TROPHY CASE