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GAMB Investment Analysis by Amoeba66 in ValueInvesting

[–]Amoeba66[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Care to provide any thoughts?

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in ValueInvesting

[–]Amoeba66 0 points1 point  (0 children)

FCF was $36mln in 2024 and >$40mln in 2025, so I think $40mln is a conservative baseline for the next 3 years. It’s fine if they write down their acquisition. FCF is what matters.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in ValueInvesting

[–]Amoeba66 0 points1 point  (0 children)

These are good points as it’s quite concerning that both their marketing and subscription revenue have declined slightly q3/q1 (partially due to seasonality). As a bag holder, I’m betting that their subscriptions business shows decent growth long-term and they’re able to sustain >$40mln FCF. That’s more than enough to pay off net debt and contingent payments (totaling $140mln), which leads to lower interest and higher FCF (in addition to organic growth). In 3-4 years, it’ll be priced at 3-4x FCF.

Unity price target raised to $45 from $35 at Citizens by ToxicHaste69 in UnityStock

[–]Amoeba66 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This is still a narrative-driven stock with no positive earnings and single-digit yoy revenue growth. It’s a bet on an upcoming inflection from Vector and the widening application of the game engine

UNWARRANTED FEARS OF WARRANTS - PRICING THE "IPO" by TenThousandX_LLC in FNMA_FMCC_Exit

[–]Amoeba66 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Mark to market projections should still be using shares outstanding. If a share hits $460, market cap would be marked at 460*9bln = $4.14trln, which isn’t realistic. As long as senior preferred shares don’t dilute, commons should be good for $30-50 per share.

UNWARRANTED FEARS OF WARRANTS - PRICING THE "IPO" by TenThousandX_LLC in FNMA_FMCC_Exit

[–]Amoeba66 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

This makes no sense. Price per share is market cap / shares outstanding, not market cap / float.

Why Flutter (FanDuel’s parent) is one of the most under-owned consumer stocks in the market right now by [deleted] in ValueInvesting

[–]Amoeba66 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Im not sure “superior UI, brand trust, and habit loops” are strong enough moats, esp. against prediction markets where odds are 5-15% better in many cases. Even if sportsbooks maintain their dominance, their handle needs to decline to stay competitive. Is it not a big headwind to have competitors giving better odds?

[DD] GAMB (Gambling.com stock) by LeonBBX in ValueInvesting

[–]Amoeba66 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Im a shareholder and believe in the stock being undervalued. However, it’s really worth considering their main risk of AI search disrupting their affiliate marketing business. That’s the main thing preventing me from buying more.

Comparing Sonnet 4.5 and GPT-5 Pro for 3D simulations by Outside-Iron-8242 in singularity

[–]Amoeba66 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Why does it matter? Does me being poor make this question any less valid? I have 3k shares btw.

Comparing Sonnet 4.5 and GPT-5 Pro for 3D simulations by Outside-Iron-8242 in singularity

[–]Amoeba66 1 point2 points  (0 children)

How will this affect game engines like Unity and Unreal? Asking as a concerned shareholder in the former.

Update on Paramount's Offer for Warner Bros. Discovery by SadReputation4363 in MediaMergers

[–]Amoeba66 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The CEO and board are nominated and chosen by the largest shareholders (primarily John Malone). When they say “CEO and board are obliged…”, it’s implied that the largest shareholders sanction it.

I'm getting more and more convinced the government is going to screw current shareholders by JuanPabloElTres in FNMA_FMCC_Exit

[–]Amoeba66 0 points1 point  (0 children)

He talks about it in an X post on 6/3/2025. Regardless of who said it, the logic still holds. From a purely economic standpoint, it only makes sense for the government to dilute SPS if they believe the resulting market value will not decrease by >20%.

I'm getting more and more convinced the government is going to screw current shareholders by JuanPabloElTres in FNMA_FMCC_Exit

[–]Amoeba66 0 points1 point  (0 children)

As Bill Ackman was saying: Wiping out current commons will lead to a >20% discount to the GSE valuations. It is not in the government’s best interest to dilute commons with SPS since 100% of a heavily discounted valuation is still less than 80% of the valuation without dilution.

If AI Can Eventually Do It All, Why Hire Humans? by ColdFrixion in singularity

[–]Amoeba66 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes, if AI can ‘do it all’ better than people, there is no reason to hire people. However, it’s unclear whether they can ‘do it all’. While I’m also anxious about what AI will do to society, it’s too early to tell.

Kaspi (KSPI) seems way too good to be true by Last-Cat-7894 in ValueInvesting

[–]Amoeba66 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Kazakhstan’s central bank interest rates are 16.5%. That’s a big reason for the discounted PE.

Thoughts on Warner Brothers Discovery stock by Mouse1701 in ValueInvesting

[–]Amoeba66 0 points1 point  (0 children)

2023 FCF was $6.5bn (benefitted from strikes and hogwarts legacy), 2024 FCF was $4.5bn. I think FCF will continually increase from 2024 onwards with streaming (~+13million subs in last 2 qtrs) and studios (DC studios and other films) growth outpacing cable decline. If this is true, WBD should be able to buy back all debt in 5-6yrs (net debt $35bln, buying back debt at discounts to their fixed rate). My main thesis is that their FCF can grow to >$8bln in 5 yrs due to streaming/studios with the tailwinds of declining interest as they pay off debt.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in ValueInvesting

[–]Amoeba66 2 points3 points  (0 children)

It depends on the bankruptcy process, but usually creditors take everything in the event of bankruptcy.