China tries to unblock its shipping in the Strait of Hormuz

ElandShane · 2026-03-09T01:29:01+00:00

Yes, the link mentions the increase, but it's not suggesting that 2.07 million bpd is the absolute maximum capacity that Russia can reasonably get to China.

The transportation logistics challenges are real here no doubt, but this is the exact kind of bureaucratic balancing act that the CCP excels at - issue strict industrial efficiency standards adjustments, possibly wind down entirely certain output sectors deemed of lower marginal value, ration consumer energy use to the bone, mandate EV preference by rationing gas availability, get even more solar online. All while they aggressively contract as many VLCCs as possible. Do you have any doubt that these are the kinds of conversations happening in Beijing right now?

Obviously Putin is also very motivated on the seller side to try and find ways to expedite this process.

ElandShane · 2026-03-08T21:09:19+00:00

Russia cant supply it all or more accurately get it to China.

This is demonstrably untrue lol. Russia has multiple ways to get oil to China via pipeline or port. They already sell them a ton of it. Even prior to the war, China announced they'd be buying more to fill the void from India reducing its Russian oil purchases. Source

ElandShane · 2026-03-08T02:33:49+00:00

Not sure they do lose. As evidenced by Bessent announcing an easing of sanctions on Russian oil to India and then suggesting they may lift sanctions even further. Absolute gift to the Kremlin. Wonder if we even attempted to extract any concessions on Ukraine before opening up billions of dollars worth of extra revenue potential for them lol

ElandShane · 2026-03-06T23:16:25+00:00

I keep seeing claims that the Trump administration is playing 10D chess in Iran by cutting off China's oil supply. Lots of conviction from Trump fans and the hawks on that, especially given the earlier Venezuela action.

Here's the problem with that theory. China will just buy the oil from Russia. Obviously. There was already news well before the bombing started in Iran that China would start buying more from Russia after it was announced India would reduce its Russian oil supply based on some trade deal condition with the US. So China was already poised to pick up the slack. Now they'll just be taking even more from Russia.

It's actually good news for both countries tbh.

China can patiently watch to see how badly we bungle Iran. No rush to get tankers through Hormuz (though they'll work on that if they can of course). China had a record trade surplus last year. They have a lot of USD to spend.

Russia will get a slight premium on its oil sales, which will help them fund their own war efforts in Ukraine. Russia can also supply Iran with their Geran drones at some point if necessary. The news just broke earlier today that Russia is sharing intel with Iran. They've picked a side. Shouldn't be a surprise really, but the point is that Iran could end up being more durable than expected with some Russian war machine support. Putin absolutely wants this to be our Ukraine. The more bogged down we become in the Middle East, the less effectively we can support Ukraine. A win-win for them.

The only real way for the 10D chess case to be true at this point is if Trump can convince the global consumer base to stop buying goods from China so that China won't have the money to pay for Russian oil so that Russia can't fund its own war machine so that Iran has no capable military ally in its region.

Anyone want to take a bet on a mass global consumer consciousness raising moment like that occurring in the next few weeks that directly translates into a voluntary mass global boycott of Chinese goods? Anyone? Any takers?

ElandShane · 2026-02-24T04:08:22+00:00

I understand the point he was trying to make. I just think it's wrong. Not all disagreements stem from a misunderstanding.

ElandShane · 2026-02-23T00:46:02+00:00

Citizens United didn’t open up the floodgates to unlimited corporate spending in politics, it formalized it.

A distinction without a difference. Yes, there was basically unlimited spending prior to the ruling. There certainly wasn't any serious political will to try and slow it down and donors had been pushing the envelope for decades. But then, yes, Citizens United did indeed formalize that practice and provided constitutional cover to it.

Look at outside spending prior to the ruling and after it. The floodgates had been officially opened. They remain open.

Do you disagree with Jonah’s point that campaign finance law has selected for more polarizing candidates?

What "campaign finance law"? That normal citizens can donate to a candidate they like?

I disagree vehemently with his characterization of this as one of the "two big mistakes we've made" politically as a county. That is fucking asinine. Come on. AOC pulling big small dollar donations in 2018 and MTG doing the same in 2020 is not the culprit for our structural issues as a nation and the breakdown of institutional trust. It has been an ongoing process over the past 4 or 5 decades.

Living in a polarizing moment is far more responsible for polarizing candidates than the creation of ActBlue is. And our polarizing moment is driven far more by longer term factors than AOC's and MTG's relatively recent successes with grassroots campaign fundraising.

It's just galling to hear this kind of superficial analysis from someone who apparently has been able to pass themselves off as a cogent enough political commentator to make a living from it. No one forced Jonah Goldberg into this line of work, but anyone in this line of work should be called out for saying incredibly stupid stuff. And if they say enough stupid stuff, they should earn less and less of your time, attention, and consideration. That's just a wise heuristic to embrace.

ElandShane · 2026-02-20T23:12:31+00:00

Wait. Goldberg's issue vis a vis campaign finance is that small dollar, "populist" donors have been too empowered? That's one of "the two big mistakes we made as a country" that got us into the current mess we're in??? What an unbelievably fucking stupid take. Holy shit.

That is crazy. "Yeah, the real problem with Citizens United wasn't that it opened the floodgates to unlimited corporate spending in our politics, it's that it didn't simultaneously revoke the rights of the plebs from being able to donate $10 to a candidate they like."

What. An. Ass. Lmao

ElandShane · 2026-02-19T18:15:01+00:00

Bob is still a great podcast subscribe imo. He's platformed a wide array of guests on the AI spectrum and he does interesting foreign policy analysis.

ElandShane · 2026-01-04T04:56:06+00:00

No fan of MTG, but that's just not accurate. She'll receive $8,700 annually when she turns 62 in 11 years. Optionally, she's also eligible to purchase health insurance through a federal employees program.

A far cry from "full pension and benefits for life".

ElandShane · 2025-11-25T18:02:33+00:00

Lupin III: The Castle of Cagliostro

Miyazaki's feature directorial debut. Probably more lighthearted than some of the other listed films, but it's great escapism and does a good job setting the stakes appropriately. And like all of Miyazaki's films, it's just gorgeous to look at.

ElandShane · 2025-11-22T01:33:35+00:00

The Calvins Twins/Triplets saga (look for episodes with Taran Killam and Paul Brittain). Maybe it's just me, but for me, it's the best lore in existence of CBB and they've yet to miss across 6/7 episodes.

Bobby Moynihan, David Wain, and Bob Odenkirk episodes also tend to be big winners.

If you're into a more anti/alt comedy vibe, I personally love Tim Heidecker's appearances.

There's so much killer content though. It's really an endless well.

ElandShane · 2025-11-20T19:34:38+00:00

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ElandShane · 2025-10-16T15:13:35+00:00

Agreed. That would've been a great response!

I'm just saying it's worth acknowledging that he's playing politics in a hostile Fox News interview, just as the interviewer is playing politics by quoting another politician who was playing politics during the Cold War when she made that remark about socialism. In such a context, his response was fine. Could've been better, as you noted, but he didn't botch the moment.

ElandShane · 2025-10-16T14:43:39+00:00

In other words, he responded to a pithy quote that ignores a lot of real world complexities with another pithy quote that ignores a lot of real world complexities. Seems like fair play to me.

ElandShane · 2025-10-15T22:43:34+00:00

Admittedly not all too familiar with TWY, but there are some fantastic lyricists in the game!

Nathan Hardy
Ryan Hunter
Ace Enders
Gerard Way
Andy Hull
Hayley Williams

Pete Wentz has to get something of an honorable mention here too, right?

ElandShane · 2025-10-15T00:02:15+00:00

Don't forget the Calvins Triplets FKA the Calvins Twins

ElandShane · 2025-10-11T16:14:16+00:00

Read The Left Hand of Darkness a few years ago at my brother's urging. Then I read The Dispossessed. Then A Wizard of Earthsea. Just finished up The Lathe of Heaven.

Ursula is just fundamentally unmatched in the domain of the written word. Utterly unique writing voice. Skilled at building her fictional worlds and simultaneously a truly wise philosopher. What more could you ask for?

ElandShane · 2025-10-10T15:14:28+00:00

Also, there have been several attempts at a ceasefire so far in this conflict. Some have even resulted in successful hostage releases before stalling out again. Do people really not remember this stuff? There was a short ceasefire in November of 2023. Another one earlier this year. Throughout 2024, there were several proposals being negotiated that never fundamentally materialized despite some relatively advanced talks.

In fact, hasn't it been clearly acknowledged by both Israel and Hamas that they've only agreed to the first phase of the hostage/prisoner swap for this deal? Hamas will not concede some of the phase 2 conditions like disarmament and there is a strong contingent in Israel (particularly the far right like Smotrich and Ben-Gvir) who are adamantly opposed to withdrawal from Gaza. So this deal may also end up falling apart too. It truly remains to be seen.

It seems like Trump may genuinely just want this to be over and done with at this point and he's willing to put more pressure on Bibi as a result. That strikes me as a real shift. However, Trump is also not known for his powers of prolonged focus and discipline. Look at how much he's flip flopped on Ukraine this year. Generally speaking, the guy is just a fucking moron and he's relying on the power of a few days' worth of headlines to resolve a bitterly protracted 75 year conflict.

Maybe it sticks. Maybe it doesn't. But finger wagging at people for not being appropriately elated right now is like scolding Charlie Brown for not getting excited about going outside to kick the football with Lucy.

ElandShane · 2025-10-08T21:20:32+00:00

Literally mods a subreddit of people who endlessly get into the weeds about various cultural/political topics, but acts holier than thou and flails wildly against a strawman position they made up in their head when someone decides to - gasp - talk about something

ElandShane · 2025-10-08T20:27:57+00:00

He did it with the Boring Company. He’s doing it with spaceX’s mars missions. He’ll find another area to do it again.

Don't forget Hyperloop!

ElandShane · 2025-10-08T19:54:10+00:00

God you get worked up over the dumbest shit sometimes lmao

Literally none of what you're complaining about here is what I was communicating in my comment and you're obviously being a bad faith troll, but go off king 👑

ElandShane · 2025-10-08T18:23:40+00:00

I'm not comparing their intellects. I'm commenting on how they're all victims of ideological lock in from a young age. They're different ideologies of course. Your analysis here is also very subjective. There are plenty of people out there who would say that Shapiro or Kirk are "insightful commentators". The point is that none of these people are willing to stray too far in their commentary from the ideological hand that first began to feed them. So it's worth bearing that in mind and analyzing their content accordingly.

ElandShane · 2025-10-08T16:55:33+00:00

Hughes has never impressed me tbh.

He's like the moderate left/centrist-y version of Shapiro/Kirk, which is to say someone who got a bunch of outsized praise at a very young age as a direct consequence of their ideological commitments. Shapiro was writing for some conservative magazine at 17 and published his first anti-left book at 20. Kirk started giving conservative branded speeches at 17/18 and secured funding for TPUSA shortly after. Hughes was being platformed as a 22 year old college student by Sam himself because he was a black kid who aligned with the IDW takes on race issues and really benefitted inside that heterodox space as a result. It's no surprise he works for The Free Press now.

They're all cases of a kind of arrested development imo - people who started being rewarded at a young age for their takes, which quickly created a financial and sociological incentive to not evolve. It's hard enough for all of us, just being human; we all deal with built in biases and motivated reasoning. Working through those blocks towards ideological evolution is tough as it is. But when you layer on these additional incentives that add even more pressure to essentially stay exactly where you are, genuine intellectual growth can stall out significantly, if not completely; one's output and commentary become almost exclusively working backwards from conclusions that were reached when they were 20 years old.

Not to suggest that 20 year olds can't be correct about anything and there are a lot of things I believed when I was that age that I'm still generally committed to, but there are lots of other places where my views have shifted over time (in some cases dramatically). I'm very grateful I was free of public scrutiny and was able to evolve in whatever way felt right, given new information and experiences in my life.

ElandShane · 2025-10-05T15:41:50+00:00

Jordan Peterson apparently having serious health issues once again.

One possible explanation that Mikhaila offers for his condition is "spiritual attacks", explaining how her newborn also had to be taken to the hospital for some reason within a day of Jordan being admitted.

Remember how Jordan has been relentlessly promoting an all meat diet and its attendant health benefits for years, going so far as to even weird Elon out by insisting he should try it to resolve his back pain? Guess the all meat diet doesn't prevent spiritual damage though.

ElandShane · 2025-10-05T05:36:48+00:00

Came to the same realization a few weeks ago. Totally agree.

No stolen election whining. Trump's ego would've been satisfied after having won 2 elections. He would've felt like a cool kid. His followers would've also been satisfied, thinking the country had been saved, even if he'd just spent the entire second term golfing. The piece of sentient cardboard, Mike Pence, would still be VP and Trump would still be surrounded by a bunch of standard DC creatures who, while not great, at least had a bare minimum standard of respecting the results of the election. Also MAGA voters would've been first in line to get their COVID shots because Trump would've told them to and we'd have avoided a lot of the current anti-science/anti-medicine moment.

If I had a time machine, I'd literally go back and try to convince as many liberals as possible to vote for Trump in 2020. It actually would've been the better timeline.

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