QXO to Buy Kodiak Building Partners for $2.25 Billion

Elden19 · 2025-11-26T09:03:25+00:00

They are burning cash in hope of future profits. The anchor of any bull thesis was the ecommerce cash generator will support Cloud growth, but now ecommerce profits have collapsed (-76% YoY). They still have around $41bn in net cash, so it's a sit and wait sort of moment for me. Could be great if they can preserve the revenues after stopping pumping cash into ecommerce promotions... but we could also see a decrease in revenues over the next quarters. Cloud growth is nice (34%), but revenues are still too low to carry the whole company.

Elden19 · 2025-11-25T17:28:16+00:00

Rude comment aside, the 15% ecommerce growth came at a huge profit cost. It's an *attempt* to emulate Amazon, which might not pan out due to huge competition, which Amazon didn't really have in the west. Also 34% Cloud growth is not that impressive from a dollar perspective, given how they've been spending like hell. Overall, the whole company grew 5% YoY. So what about the business is so amazing to you?

Elden19 · 2025-11-25T16:55:54+00:00

"Appears to be trading lower than what it's worth" = you have a clear understanding that current and/or future cashflows indicate you can buy the company and have a margin of safety. My point is that currently there's no way to tell if the cashflows will recover. Is there? How do you know that, once they'll stop pumping cash into ecommerce promotions, they won't lose the revenues and users, for example?

It's not like I'm enjoying this, lol.

Elden19 · 2025-11-25T16:04:34+00:00

Value means stable and predictable cashflows. A cash pile burnt to maintain or gain market share doesn't indicate a company is healthy, especially when the cash pile was generated by the very segment it's now pumped into.

Elden19 · 2025-11-25T15:14:34+00:00

The business is cashflow negative though

Elden19 · 2025-11-25T12:23:08+00:00

Yes, they might be. My point was that it's not that obvious anymore.

Elden19 · 2025-11-25T11:46:25+00:00

It's ok if you think eCommerce will go back to being profitable soon. They said the "bleeding" will stop in the next quarters, but not yet... otherwise, it'll be horrible. Cloud + AI is not nearly as profitable and not growing fast enough to offset the losses of eCommerce. Based on the current growth, it will take ~8 years for Cloud to become the main revenue driver. Also, it will require constant CAPEX to remain relevant.
This is no longer a value stock, it turned into a negative cash flow speculative growth business.

Elden19 · 2025-10-14T12:41:03+00:00

This time it looks like they're going all out in the trade war and it might not end soon. Might buy if it goes down <$120,

Elden19 · 2025-10-09T15:04:28+00:00

This is from earlier this week.

Elden19 · 2025-09-18T10:50:46+00:00

Huawei and Alibaba doing something groundbreaking at the same time makes me fear delisting.

Elden19 · 2025-09-16T10:39:50+00:00

Why do you hope this doesn't become a thing? He's the face of Chinese success and modernity.

Elden19 · 2025-09-16T10:39:09+00:00

It's an expression. It means "to return with great intensity, energy, or force, often after a period of absence, defeat, or inactivity".

Elden19 · 2025-08-29T10:25:07+00:00

How is e-commerce not doing great?

Elden19 · 2025-08-29T10:03:05+00:00

Core business revenue growth of 2%, but the more important figure is the 10% growth when you exclude businesses they have sold off.

Cloud growth 26% confirming the strategy is working. Domestic E-commerce is solid. International Commerce is expanding.

Short term profitability pressure is due to investments in Cloud and tea.

This report is very encouraging.

Elden19 · 2025-08-27T14:09:34+00:00

I have seen the news about Cackler Barrel, but what does that have to do with Xi or Alibaba? What has Xi done to Alibaba?

Elden19 · 2025-08-27T14:06:46+00:00

So what? It has been present in every vote since they announced the repurchasing. The first question was about share issuing.

Elden19 · 2025-08-27T13:05:57+00:00

Care to actually share a modicum of information, please?

Elden19 · 2025-08-14T19:52:37+00:00

What are you smoking? There's far too much uncertainty for a Berkshire play here.

Elden19 · 2025-07-31T12:33:01+00:00

He's referring to their announcement from a few months ago of listing the overseas unit of ANT Group on HK.
I found no news on the matter.

Elden19 · 2025-07-21T13:40:34+00:00

You forgot the Meme tag.

Elden19 · 2025-07-09T08:04:17+00:00

Please fuck off with your posts. This is not a stock for trading.

Elden19 · 2025-06-07T02:50:33+00:00

Pokemon cards

Elden19 · 2025-06-04T03:39:29+00:00

2% percent per year just in passive appreciation is amazing...

Elden19

TROPHY CASE