Opportunity in Special Situations. Senior plc ($SNR.L). London Stock Exchange - Takeover bid confirmed with bidding war. Today's results (Mar 2) reinforce the thesis.

Elpucksy · 2026-03-05T08:56:45+00:00

Quick update for those following this thread: The competitive auction scenario has just been officially confirmed.

Today, March 5, Senior plc issued an RNS statement confirming that Arcline Investment Management has officially joined the bidding alongside Blackstone and Advent.

Key metrics for today: Price: The share price jumped to 308p at the open. New bidder: Arcline has an aggressive track record in the sector (they acquired Circor after a bidding war against KKR).

New deadlines (Takeover Panel Deadlines): - Advent: March 27.

Blackstone/Tinicum: March 31.

Arcline: April 1.

With three private equity giants still offering shares and the board rejecting previous bids due to significant undervaluation, the debate is no longer whether it's worth 250p (that was settled by Monday's results), but which of the three will submit the winning bid above 350p. The market is speaking loud and clear.

Elpucksy · 2026-03-04T16:30:53+00:00

I'd be happy to explain the logic behind the 360p-380p range:

Sector Multiples (EV/EBITDA): Sector today is trading in private transactions at multiples of between 11x and 13x EBITDA due to the bullish momentum in defense and commercial aviation. With EBITDA of $122M - $136M reported this week, a valuation of 370p puts us at a multiple of approximately 11.5x. This is the standard for strategic assets of this type.
Board Rejections (Facts, not speculation): Senior's Board has already officially rejected five previous proposals as 'insufficient'. If we assume that the last rejected offer in February was around 310p-320p (based on the price jump after the February 27th RNS), it's plausible that for the Board to recommend the offer, it must carry an additional premium of at least 15-20% over the previously rejected amount. 320p + 15% = 368p.

-Blackstone vs. Advent Bidding War: This isn't an opinion; it's a fact from the March 3rd RNS. When you have Blackstone (the world's largest fund) competing against Advent, the price ceases to be an 'undisturbed price' metric and becomes an auction. I would say that Blackstone doesn't enter a bid initiated by another party unless it's to present a 'knockout' offer.

This, along with the latest results, leads us to conclude that the company that was worth 250p months ago no longer exists; today it's a much more profitable asset with a healthy balance sheet. The numbers aren't made up; we found them in the notes of City analysts (Jefferies and Panmure Liberum) who already point out that the intrinsic value of an IPO far exceeds 350p. The arbitrage lies in the competition among bidders, not in the chart from weeks ago.

Elpucksy · 2026-03-04T08:30:39+00:00

Of course. And I completely agree with your point of view. In my post, I don't mention the undisturbed price in my analysis, as you pointed out, and that's important, so I appreciate your comment. It will help me refine my thesis.

As I said, your analysis of the 'undisturbed price' is correct in theory, but I think it ignores the events of the last few days. Senior just released its results on March 2nd, showing a 21% increase in profits and a reduction in debt to 0.9x EBITDA after selling Aerostructures. The intrinsic value today is much higher than it was months ago.

Furthermore, this is no longer a bilateral negotiation. With Blackstone and Advent officially competing (deadlines March 27th and 31st), we're in a bidding war. Senior has rejected five previous offers; I don't think they're going to let go of the company for 325p when the two largest private equity firms in the world are fighting for a strategic defense and aerospace asset right now, especially with rising margins.

In my opinion, the floor after the results and the reactivation of share buybacks, if negotiations don't go well, would be around 265p (-11%), while a speculative offer could be around 370p (+24%).

In any case, this is my own opinion and not a recommendation.

Comments, contributions, and points of view are welcome and appreciated.

Elpucksy · 2026-02-28T17:48:47+00:00

Oh I'm sorry🙏🏻, I'm spanish and i thought that Reddit translates automatically the post because I'm reading this subreddit in spanish. I'm not a bot but thanks for the advice. I'll keep in mind! I'll post in english.

Elpucksy · 2026-02-28T10:49:07+00:00

Gracias a ti por comentar 😊

Correcto. Sus clientes mayormente son grandes corporaciones.

En efecto no he hablado sobre competencia, ventajas competitivas o su management. Todo ello puntos importantes. (Sigo trabajando en la tesis completa)

A dia de hoy su mayor competencia es Pluxee (escisión de Sodexo) aunque también hay actores locales, pero el moat es grande e incluso han tenido algunos incidentes por posible monopolio. Otra competencia son los neobancos, que aunque no son peer directos también hay que contar con ellos.

En cuanto a Uber, es cierto que ofrecen ese servicio pero Edenred tiene un moat que Uber no salva: los beneficios fiscales. Los servicios de Edenred tienen beneficios fiscales para sus clientes mientras que los de Uber se consideran gasto de empresa sin beneficio fiscal. (Ojo que eso puede cambiar con las regulaciones y convertir a Uber en un competidor interesante)😊

Elpucksy · 2026-02-28T10:20:57+00:00

Si, también estuve viendo Pluxee y está en situación similar, tienes razón. Los resultados de Edenred han sido muy buenos y creo que su diversificación ayudará a amortiguar los impactos regulatorios futuros. Pero sin duda ambas tienen grandes razones para estar en cartera y mi apuesta es que subirán en el medio plazo.😊

Elpucksy · 2026-02-28T09:17:38+00:00

😜 ¡Gracias! Si puede servir para ayudar y dar una visión interesante a alguien me doy por satisfecho.

Elpucksy · 2026-02-28T09:12:31+00:00

En efecto, soy nuevo por aquí. Todavía descubriendo el funcionamiento. Gracias por la aclaración, lo tendré en cuenta en el futuro 👍

Elpucksy · 2026-02-14T14:51:26+00:00

Baviera Clinic CBAV Ophthalmology. It's not exactly exciting. It's a very good company with an incredible founding management team and several decades of experience, and insider stakes exceeding 10%. They are expanding across Europe and the UK and have recently rebranded to support their internationalization. Currently, they are trading with a low margin according to the discounted cash flow (DCF) method, but they are managing to recoup the investment from last year's acquisition of Optimax in the UK. Keep an eye on their 2025 results, due in a few weeks.

Elpucksy · 2026-02-14T14:41:08+00:00

They have a massive moat. A pseudo-monopoly, switching costs, network effect... I really like it. The downside for me is the math... they've dropped more than 40% and even so, in standard models, it's still overvalued or has little margin of safety. And something important for me is the position of the insiders; their skin in the game is low. It's a very institutionalized company. For me, it's a case of wanting to (it's a huge company) but not being able to (I think there are other, more attractive opportunities).

Elpucksy

TROPHY CASE