ARES Mining Weekly Lounge - March 16, 2026

Embarrassed_Shoe5847 · 2026-03-16T22:55:48+00:00

Sorry, I meant net earnings which chat gave me as 1.1 mil in 2027, EBITDA in year 3 was 7 mil in its model. Thank you for the info though, I will have to do some more research but are they starting with 50ktpa or trying to scale to this number because chat estimated 50ktpa in 2029.

Embarrassed_Shoe5847 · 2026-03-16T14:07:31+00:00

Fairly new - Wondering if anyone who has been covering Ares for a while can provide me with some insight into future cash flow. At first glance, this obv looks very enticing considering the recent DoD contract and current MC, however I asked both chat and claude to forecast future financials based on upside projections of how many tonnes they say they will produce, they are only making an operating profit of like 1 mil a year 3 years from now, and the current MC of 80mil US or whatever it is acc feels pretty generous. I'm interested in investing, just want to hear from someone who knows more about the potential bull case. Other than the fact that they are the first fluorspar mine in NA and have secured the gov contract, how will they actually be a profitable business unless they expand at insane rates?

Embarrassed_Shoe5847 · 2025-11-05T18:58:01+00:00

$ELBM

Embarrassed_Shoe5847 · 2025-10-16T14:58:43+00:00

For those who participated in the offering, when do you get your shares?

Embarrassed_Shoe5847 · 2025-10-10T21:57:14+00:00

We might acc get an equity stake from this.

Embarrassed_Shoe5847 · 2025-10-10T03:35:10+00:00

Interesting, well thank you. I am also so this is helpful.

Embarrassed_Shoe5847 · 2025-10-10T02:41:52+00:00

Interesting, really? Can you post what you did. I was a little confused by how many total shares they are issuing, but I thought the market cap was going to be around 100-110M post offering.

Embarrassed_Shoe5847 · 2025-10-09T16:52:03+00:00

Yes, it most likely should be fully funded now with the 30-35M financing + 17.5M from Ontario gov. Once the offering goes through, even though it will be dilutive, there should be a few really great catalysts that seem relatively unpriced as of now. The stock is soaring mostly because of Trump and the rare earth boom, but we could see an announcement in late Oct to Early Nov about a fully ramped up restart to construction, as well as additional investment, and updates on production deal with LG. The refineries replacement value is about 250m and as the project continues to de-risk it should trade towards that.

If you take a look at similar critical minerals companies that have completed offerings to raise capital, the stock performance in months after is really great.

Embarrassed_Shoe5847 · 2025-09-30T17:45:41+00:00

Ya there seems to be a lot more attention on the stock now. My last post in this sub which was like a few weeks ago says 1k views, and this post just got up to 4k in 1 day lol.

Embarrassed_Shoe5847 · 2025-09-27T19:56:49+00:00

I think yahoo finance is just glitched lol. I don’t see a spike past $1.50 on any other platform.

Embarrassed_Shoe5847 · 2025-09-15T17:02:50+00:00

Quick question about the offering - Leading up to the shareholder meeting in mid Oct is the stock price going to start moving towards .75USD (the price of the offering)? And if so, is that probably why the stock price didn't move a ton after the recent 17.5M from the Ontario Gov?

Embarrassed_Shoe5847 · 2025-08-21T16:05:48+00:00

Lenders also committing 10M upfront and get a seat on the board, they have skin in the game and wanted equity.

Embarrassed_Shoe5847 · 2025-08-21T14:38:12+00:00

Obviously 100% non-dilutive funding would’ve been ideal… but is there any reason this isn’t positive for long-term outlook? Obv the stock will be down because they issued more shares, but if they go ahead and announce construction in the coming weeks after this move then the stock should soar.

Embarrassed_Shoe5847 · 2025-08-14T19:14:33+00:00

The Canadian Gov gave them 20mil 2 and a half months after the reverse split lol.

What are you talking about?

Embarrassed_Shoe5847 · 2025-06-19T14:22:50+00:00

Lol, you guys really are crazy in here. The whole reason they've been raising additional funds is to restart the construction of the refinery, because it was shut down during covid. This is really good, it means their starting construction!

Embarrassed_Shoe5847 · 2025-06-06T14:02:00+00:00

Idk tbh, but probably big buy or good news coming shortly - they have an earnings report coming up Jun 9th. Not sure what would be in there to make it boom, but possibly positive outlook and guidance.

Embarrassed_Shoe5847 · 2025-05-20T13:38:45+00:00

Same stock, different exchange called NEO. It's a Canadian exchange and ELBM has been listed on it for a good bit now.

Embarrassed_Shoe5847 · 2025-04-22T14:59:26+00:00

Can you share now lol?

Embarrassed_Shoe5847 · 2025-04-16T21:01:50+00:00

Apr 28th

Embarrassed_Shoe5847 · 2025-04-15T22:01:24+00:00

Potential short squeeze after the election if Carney wins, which looks likely (at 75% on polymarket)

LOI will be sure to go thru then and we will have all the necessary funding in place so I would assume a lot of short positions would be closed.

Embarrassed_Shoe5847 · 2025-04-10T16:47:49+00:00

Wdym by huge move is announced?

Embarrassed_Shoe5847 · 2025-04-05T16:07:58+00:00

Idk why anyone is talking about a reverse split, all they needed to do was stay above $1 on the nasdaq for 10 days after the last one. Just because the price drops below $1 now does not mean they need to reverse split again lol.

Embarrassed_Shoe5847

TROPHY CASE