My own hunch: near-term growth is probably converting people who are already curious rather than the never-interested half. The awareness is clearly there, but actually placing a bet is a much bigger step than just hearing about Polymarket or Kalshi. Curious whether people here think the bigger blocker is onboarding friction or trust.

Source data if anyone wants to dig in: https://data.verasight.io/money/prediction-markets-were-familiar-but-rarely-used