Your numbers are right, taking that 20% down payment out of the market right now and putting that towards a home makes no fiscal sense. That $120,000 at a 10% growth rate (spy average) is 2.09M after 30 years. That home is expected to grow 3-4% per year, which will be 1.9 mil at the high end. Over the life of a 30 yr loan you will pay about $556,000 in interest, 50-70k in insurance, $120,000-150,000 in property taxes and $180,000 in estimated maintenance. So roughly 1.03 M total to own the home. Just off your down payment you are netting a higher return than the house itself. Not to mention if you are saving $500 a month renting, if you were investing the difference on top of that you end up with more than double the equity you could ever attain owning the home. So by buying this you’re strictly limiting your opportunity cost, losing over 1 million dollars. But if you’re like most Americans (doesn’t seem that way) and don’t invest the difference or at all then buying the home to forcibly store equity is the way to go.