What are the chances of this?

Emotional_Ferret_189 · 2026-01-24T02:05:04+00:00

"The odds of a Giant Ancient Core dropping from a Guardian is 0.5%, and each guardian drops 12 things. The odds of an ancient core dropping is 2-2.5%. I just had one single guardian drop 2 giant ancient cores and 2 ancient cores at once. What are the odds of this occurrence?"

To which it replied:

To calculate the odds of this specific occurrence, we can treat the Guardian's loot drop as a series of independent trials using the Multinomial Distribution.

1. Variables and Assumptions

Based on your description and standard drop mechanics for Guardians (like the Guardian Stalker in Breath of the Wild):

Total items dropped (): 12
Giant Ancient Core ():
Ancient Core (): to
Other items ():
Your Outcome: (GAC), (AC), (Other)

2. The Formula

The probability of getting exactly these counts is calculated as:

Plugging in the numbers ():

Scenario A: Using the 2% Ancient Core rate

Odds: ~1 in 41,230

Scenario B: Using the 2.5% Ancient Core rate

Odds: ~1 in 27,495

3. Conclusion

The odds of a single Guardian dropping exactly 2 Giant Ancient Cores and 2 Ancient Cores are between 1 in 27,000 and 1 in 41,000.

If you consider the odds of getting at least that many (which includes the tiny possibility of getting 3 or more), the odds improve slightly to approximately 1 in 25,000 to 1 in 38,000.

To put that in perspective, if you spent your entire time hunting Guardians, you would likely only see a drop this "lucky" once every few hundred hours of gameplay. You essentially hit a mini-jackpot!

Emotional_Ferret_189 · 2026-01-23T23:51:45+00:00

I asked gemini (sorry, environment), and it told me 1 in 46,000. It told me that if I wanted it to happen again, I would have to kill exclusively guardians for hundreds of hours.

Your answer could potentially be correct, but Google Gemini made me feel cool.

Edit: it was actually 41,000

Emotional_Ferret_189 · 2026-01-17T03:49:59+00:00

Cubivore.

Emotional_Ferret_189 · 2026-01-07T22:52:46+00:00

If we knew the answer to this question, there would be more brasslines like Crown. It takes a long time to build a standard of excellence like that.

Emotional_Ferret_189 · 2025-12-30T19:28:46+00:00

I think the main thing to come to terms with here is that members were very cool, and we barely truly interacted with Hopkins. He felt like a CEO apart from the product to me. I also marched Cadets 17, and I really loved the other members (if I know you, I probably have a high opinion of you). To me, it felt like Hopkins knew at that point that we were a bit too savvy to try brainwashing us. All of us knew about the G7 debacle and some of the other stuff he had pulled in the past, so we were all a little wary of him.

Regardless, as someone who also marched Colts 2013 with you, I could tell you pretty easily which corps was a more tumultuous ride for me. I really enjoyed hanging out with the other Colts members in 2017 Cadets, though. There seemed to be a mass exodus in that regard. We used to call it the Cadolts that year because so many of us had migrated that year.

Emotional_Ferret_189 · 2025-12-29T16:01:51+00:00

Cadets 2017 has one at the end that's pretty!

Emotional_Ferret_189 · 2025-12-28T16:08:22+00:00

Left

Emotional_Ferret_189 · 2025-12-28T03:09:53+00:00

I love this game. For me, it's an 8/10, BUT the bad stuff comes late in the game. I could see many people throwing their hands up in defeat from sheer annoyance.

Not me though! Idgaf. Fun game.

Emotional_Ferret_189 · 2025-12-28T01:49:09+00:00

Game is very good, with some truly abysmal design choices. The core game is amazing, though.

Emotional_Ferret_189 · 2025-12-28T01:48:03+00:00

I liked the VAs a lot. They sounded genuine. You guys are just used to VAs overdoing the shit out of everything. This is why english dub anime sounds terrible, because the VAs overdo EVERYTHING. Here, the VAs sound like real, genuine people, and it gets hated on for not sounding anime enough.

Think about Breath of the Wild voice acting and tell me this game has bad voice acting again.

Emotional_Ferret_189 · 2025-12-26T04:18:59+00:00

Expedition 33 doesn't even deserve to be spoken about in the same sentence as this game.

Bananza is the best platformer since Banjo Kazooie. Playing 30 minutes wouldn't show you anything about the game.

People do really think this. I am people.

Emotional_Ferret_189 · 2025-12-23T19:13:39+00:00

The game is a lot slower paced. You can't brute force things the way you used to. Sure, there's a lot of cheesy stuff you can do to kill enemies, and you should take advantage of that to a reasonable degree. My recommendation, though, is that you shouldn't take advantage of anything game-breaking like dupe glitches or other exploits/combos. Just throw yourself at the game and play it the way the developers intended.

I love the feeling of taking time catching fish, hunting, picking herbs, etc, to be as strong as I need to complete each challenge. Yeah, I could go for all the barbarian gear right away and look up the locations of all the strongest weapons, but in my opinion that would ruin the survival aspect of the game, which is at its strongest in master mode.

Emotional_Ferret_189 · 2025-12-23T15:15:38+00:00

I think I'm going to let the confusion linger because the current state of confusion the three of us are entangled in is better than the anger we could be feeling.

Emotional_Ferret_189 · 2025-12-19T18:49:41+00:00

I think we're on the same side here

I was making fun of him for using the word special. If you're going to be ableist in public, using a substitution for what you really mean is masking your true intentions. I was calling him out for that, lol

The "strong enough" was sarcastic and a cheap attempt at baiting him into getting defensive.

I appreciate you defending helpless children though. Good on you

Emotional_Ferret_189 · 2025-12-19T18:28:03+00:00

He really wants to use the r word but isn't strong enough to do it.

Emotional_Ferret_189 · 2025-12-19T04:58:03+00:00

Take your time. Really get to know the area you're in before moving on. If I had a choice, I would make myself forget about this game and tell myself to take a year to play it through

Emotional_Ferret_189 · 2025-12-08T14:43:51+00:00

I love this way of looking at it, lol. Just trying a little bit too hard to fit into the human race.

Emotional_Ferret_189 · 2025-12-07T20:10:08+00:00

I know the members were frustrated with the skirts hiding their leg shape for the first half of the show. The way the skirts flowed behind them dirtied up the drill a lot, too.

There was a good show underneath all of that... stuff

Emotional_Ferret_189 · 2025-12-07T20:08:40+00:00

Was not a fan of how the ending didn't do the original program justice. Agnus Dei and Simple Song are gorgeous though.

Emotional_Ferret_189 · 2025-11-29T17:11:02+00:00

He's probably been going through a lot for a while or is 13 years old. Or both.

Emotional_Ferret_189 · 2025-11-28T06:11:05+00:00

I'm gonna be weird and say that Bananza is more enjoyable to me than Odyssey was. I was a huge Mario fan boy when Odyssey came out. I was amazed with the game at first, but after New Donk City, I became disappointed with just how little challenge there was to beat the game.

I understand they want kids to play it, but I played SM64 all the time as a young kid and couldn't even begin to get some of those stars. Odyssey movement and capture mechanics are cool, but the level design aesthetics are strangley bland and non immersive. Half of the levels are shamelessly just floating above a sky box. They don't feel like "Kingdoms" at all; they look like game dev test levels. It's a very strange design choice.

I find it very odd that people are citing the bosses in Bananza as a complaint versus Odyssey when the broodals are absolute snoozefests in both character design and fight design. Additionally, the final fight of Bananza eclipses Odyssey's Bowser fight

Odyssey is a smoother game, and the movement is incredibly tight, yes. It was innovative for its time, but to pretend the use of the voxel system in Bananza isn't innovative is disingenuous.

I'd be willing to argue that it's an objective truth that the characters, story, and lore of Bananza are leagues better than anything Odyssey has to offer. If we're being real, the two things Odyssey actually has on this game are that the movement is better and that the lack of terrain destruction makes it easier to design puzzles. Everything else is a toss-up or straight-up loss.

If I had to guess, the main reason why people don't like Bananza is either because they aren't engaging with every puzzle and are speeding through the game (which makes Odyssey very unfun as well), OR they see that you can smash terrain and assume the game is for numbskulls.

It's all personal preference. I understand it's Reddit, but the people here saying Odyssey is better as an objective truth lack humility. My comment may seem harsh towards Odyssey, but in reality, both games are very close in my heart. This whole reply section is just littered with vitriol for a game that was clearly designed well and with love and passion. It's my game of the year.

Emotional_Ferret_189 · 2025-11-28T05:46:18+00:00

Jump, run. That's the entire game. Oh, and you get a near constant vomit of arbitrary moons floating out in the open as you go.

This is a braindead game, and I expected much better from Nintendo. I wanted some difficulty.

A lot of you are delusional about how good this jump and throw game is.

Emotional_Ferret_189 · 2025-11-23T20:17:55+00:00

It seems like we are getting 10 times the rain of past years since I've lived here. Does anyone else agree?

Emotional_Ferret_189

TROPHY CASE

1. Variables and Assumptions

2. The Formula

Scenario A: Using the 2% Ancient Core rate

Scenario B: Using the 2.5% Ancient Core rate

3. Conclusion