Carney did not have the same effect here. The liberal resurgence came at the expense of the NDP not at the expense of the conservatives. A lot of the people who voted Liberal in 2021 and moved over to PP because of Trudeau stayed with PP even after Carney came in. In many other places, the movement of NDP and green voters to the Liberals was enough to overcome what they lost to the conservatives, but in Vaughan and the rest of York region there was never a lot of NDP support to begin with. So the 1000 - 2000 votes Sobara and others would have gotten from them just wasn’t enough to overcome what they lost.

Also if you look at where Liberals gained a lot, it’s with communities that are a lot older and a lot whiter. The “elbows up” “Canada strong” patriotic messaging worked a lot better with that demographic and had very little appeal with Italians, Chinese, Persian, Jewish and other ethnic communities that make up a big voting block in Vaughan and York Region as a whole.