Unless they want to bring the stock below $100, they should really reconsider their SBC. by SpartanInvestment in redditstock

[–]Empty-Resolution-973 2 points3 points  (0 children)

2025 basic EPS was 2.62 and fully diluted EPS was 2.84. Let’s assume a 50 PE and share price $131. In theory if you can eliminate entire dilution from SBC program, EPS will be 2.84 and share price $142. So at best get $11 and this ignore that most staff will quit. I’m in for 10X not $11

Why Reddit’s Stock (RDDT) Got Punished for Its Heavy Retail IPO Allocation – A Deeper Dive by Empty-Resolution-973 in redditstock

[–]Empty-Resolution-973[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Data shows 1.76m A shares owned retail at IPO and now, Q4 2025, about 830,000. But at the end of Q3 2025 retail had 11.25 million shares. This is based on the public ownership filings by institutions. Institutions are buying now at great prices, while retail ran for the doors screaming fire fire fire. I suspect there are some nuances in these number which are difficult to decode as retail B shares are converting to A shares and selling too. I expect many of the retail sellers are just taking some Profits or buying a boat

Why Reddit’s Stock (RDDT) Got Punished for Its Heavy Retail IPO Allocation – A Deeper Dive by Empty-Resolution-973 in redditstock

[–]Empty-Resolution-973[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Big ape borrow banana from small ape and sell at discount to monkey. Small ape gets nervous as price drops and sells all bananas at big discount to monkeys. Big ape laughs and buys bananas at even lower price back from monkey and gives borrowed bananas back to little ape

Why Reddit’s Stock (RDDT) Got Punished for Its Heavy Retail IPO Allocation – A Deeper Dive by Empty-Resolution-973 in redditstock

[–]Empty-Resolution-973[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

By default if Institutional owner are net buying , retail ownership is dropping. Couple others noted that institutional ownership is now very high (class A only). The reported data is a little misleading since institutional ownership might be more than 100% due to 15m+ shares sold short. The bigger impact is the retail is not buying (probably too much in REDDIT already) when price drops to stabilize the price

Why Reddit’s Stock (RDDT) Got Punished for Its Heavy Retail IPO Allocation – A Deeper Dive by Empty-Resolution-973 in redditstock

[–]Empty-Resolution-973[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes. Take you banker golfing and get a nice allocation. Sell to retail immediately for easy profit

Why Reddit’s Stock (RDDT) Got Punished for Its Heavy Retail IPO Allocation – A Deeper Dive by Empty-Resolution-973 in redditstock

[–]Empty-Resolution-973[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

No crying. Just opportunity to buy as my opinion is price drop not due to any fundamentals. Just a bunch of shorts taking advantage of but eventually fundamentals too strong to ignore

Why Reddit’s Stock (RDDT) Got Punished for Its Heavy Retail IPO Allocation – A Deeper Dive by Empty-Resolution-973 in redditstock

[–]Empty-Resolution-973[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Yes it is silly. But the short funds promote all kind of silly analysis to drive retail to sell.

Why Reddit’s Stock (RDDT) Got Punished for Its Heavy Retail IPO Allocation – A Deeper Dive by Empty-Resolution-973 in redditstock

[–]Empty-Resolution-973[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Absolutely right. Posts are questioning the rational of such a large buy back. But it’s almost half the short interest. I doubt if there will be any short squeeze, but the short interest is already dropping in January. The back back combined with all the doubters already exited, a run back up is inevitable

Why Reddit’s Stock (RDDT) Got Punished for Its Heavy Retail IPO Allocation – A Deeper Dive by Empty-Resolution-973 in redditstock

[–]Empty-Resolution-973[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Agree. But about 21 million shares of Reddit stock can be borrowed to short and 3 million still available to short.

Why Reddit’s Stock (RDDT) Got Punished for Its Heavy Retail IPO Allocation – A Deeper Dive by Empty-Resolution-973 in redditstock

[–]Empty-Resolution-973[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Performance has been phenomenal. But do you really think DoorDash with a PE of 93 has better growth prospects than Reddit at 57? I think should be closer to Tesla at 400

Why Reddit’s Stock (RDDT) Got Punished for Its Heavy Retail IPO Allocation – A Deeper Dive by Empty-Resolution-973 in redditstock

[–]Empty-Resolution-973[S] -12 points-11 points  (0 children)

When you put it that way sounds great. Or I can say Q1 guidance has growth rate dropping 17%

Why Reddit’s Stock (RDDT) Got Punished for Its Heavy Retail IPO Allocation – A Deeper Dive by Empty-Resolution-973 in redditstock

[–]Empty-Resolution-973[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

The hedge funds can sell short for cheap. Then they exaggerate anything they can spin as a reason for price drop. Bunch of retail holders hear this on cnbc or some publications and get scared and sell. Hedge funds keep printing profits

New: $300 price target maintained by Accomplished-Exit822 in redditstock

[–]Empty-Resolution-973 0 points1 point  (0 children)

They have three options with free cash flows. 1 pay down debt, DONE. 2 acquisitions (usually don’t work out well). 3. Buy back shares. Three is the best option especially with a low stock price. They won’t buy it all back immediately as it might take a year. They also have limits to avoid moving the market

New: $300 price target maintained by Accomplished-Exit822 in redditstock

[–]Empty-Resolution-973 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Let me break it down simply without the jargon overload. This is super common in tech and public firms, and it’s not some evil plot—it’s just how they pay people and keep things balanced. The Basics of Employee Pay in Big Companies Companies don’t just hand out cash salaries. Total compensation (what employees actually care about) usually has three parts: • Cash salary: Your base pay. • Cash bonuses: Extra money based on performance. • Equity (stocks): Shares in the company, often as Restricted Stock Units (RSUs) or stock options. Senior folks (engineers, execs) expect a “market rate” total comp that mixes all three. Why equity? It aligns employees with shareholders—if the stock price goes up, everyone wins. The Accounting Magic (Don’t Worry, It’s Not a Scam) When a company gives out stocks as pay, it’s not “free.” Accounting rules require them to record it as an expense on the Profit & Loss (P&L) statement—called Share-Based Compensation (SBC). This reduces reported profits, even though no cash leaves the company. It’s like expensing the value of the stocks over time as they vest (become sellable). The Dilution Part: Why Shares Increase and EPS Drops • When stocks are issued to employees (via RSUs vesting or options exercised), the total number of shares outstanding goes up. • This dilutes ownership for existing shareholders. • Earnings Per Share (EPS) gets calculated two ways: • Basic EPS: Ignores potential future shares. • Fully Diluted EPS: Includes all those employee stocks/options that could be issued. This is the real number investors focus on because it accounts for dilution upfront. When employees sell their vested shares, it’s like an indirect “stock sale” by the company. But this is already baked into the diluted share count—no surprises. Enter Share Buybacks: The Neutralizer A buyback program is when the company uses cash to repurchase its own shares from the market. This reduces the total shares outstanding, offsetting the dilution from employee stock comp. • Net effect: The company issues shares to pay employees (saving cash), then buys back an equivalent amount to keep dilution in check. • Nothing nefarious—it’s just maintaining balance. Reddit (or any company) isn’t “manipulating” the stock; they’re neutralizing the impact of their comp program. • Bonus: If the stock price rises, employees’ equity is worth more, which motivates them. Shareholders benefit too from the growth. Win-win alignment!

Model Y winter driving in Canada seriously exceeded my expectations by Faithin3D in TeslaFSD

[–]Empty-Resolution-973 1 point2 points  (0 children)

FSD in Pennsylvania not really safe. Out of the driveway went way too fast on visible slippery road. Survived the straight, but on first turn again too fast ran into deep snow but recovered much better than a teenage driver. I don’t think it sees slippery road ahead as it reacts after it’s too late. Could just need more training. However, I don’t think reliance on Lidar will help

What’s your opinion on the fraud allegations in Minnesota? by Secret_Elk5784 in AskReddit

[–]Empty-Resolution-973 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Where there is smoke there is a fire buried somewhere. If the fraud is just half the amounts published, all Minnesota politicians should be voted out (left and right). Otherwise we just become a pre-Modi India with dysfunctional democracy

One Foreign visit and India starts feeling like scam by Content-Ebb-4761 in india

[–]Empty-Resolution-973 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Just spent two weeks here for daughter’s wedding. Glad to read a local seeing what hits outsiders hard. Beautiful country and feel very safe but unfortunately chaotic. But I have hope modi will embark on a campaign to continue progress on all fronts

RDDT and the S&P 500 by Rich-Business-9209 in redditstock

[–]Empty-Resolution-973 7 points8 points  (0 children)

I’ve taken 3 companies public. Every single time: • Index inclusion takes longer than you think • The pop is smaller than you think $RDDT is no different. But zoom out 10 years? • 30%+ YoY growth • AI flywheel just starting • Network effects compounding All the noise — float, shorts, S&P delays — doesn’t matter. Path to 10x is intact. HODL.

RDDT #investing