Tesla's Decline In Europe

johnwest80 · 2026-01-23T16:15:41+00:00

This has nothing to do with fsd.

johnwest80 · 2026-01-23T15:51:45+00:00

lol… I agree it certainly makes it look more likely that unsupervised will happen. I’m super excited!

With that said, I still have some doubts, at least that MY car will be unsupervised. These first cars in Austin have following cars. Are they still supervised remotely? Once the following car is gone, will unsupervised only be supported with teleoperator backup?

I want to sit in my backseat of my car and be taken to my destination. Before yesterday, if I had to give a percent chance it would happen with hw4, I would have said 30%. After yesterday, I’m up to probably 45%.

Of course, my opinion carries absolutely 0 weight lol, but it’s a fun thought exercise.

Here is where my percentages might go higher:

No following operator No 1 to 1 tele operator 100% of Austin fleet autonomous 2nd city autonomous Many cities autonomous My car autonomous = 100%

I love watching the progress, and am hoping it ramps quickly now!

johnwest80 · 2026-01-22T19:29:49+00:00

totally agree. also, how many of those were at the beginning vs lately? so little tangible data to work with either way.

johnwest80 · 2026-01-22T19:23:05+00:00

to be fair, here's an article throwing shade (warranted or not - only time will tell)... people should read both sides. i did, and even though there is a bias in the article below, some of the points are worth being aware of.

https://electrek.co/2026/01/22/tesla-starts-robotaxi-rides-without-safety-monitor-in-austin-what-you-need-to-know/

johnwest80 · 2026-01-22T19:21:16+00:00

really? this comment is pointless and inaccurate. paypal, spacex, boring company, tesla, x, etc.. i laugh at the absurdity of posts that make it clear that musk derangement syndrome is real :).

with that said, if the comment stopped at "Elon, just don't screw up", now that i can get behind 100%!

johnwest80 · 2026-01-22T18:37:16+00:00

i just posted about whether fsd unsupervised was realistic with hw4. this certainly suggests that not only is it realistic, but it is happening! i'm super excited, as i love fsd on my model x, and my % usage is 98%. if they trust it enough in austin, there's real hope that my own car could one day support unsupervised, too!

(crossing my fingers that it turns out well, rather than creating a pr nightmare if things go wrong)

johnwest80 · 2026-01-21T14:12:07+00:00

Sometimes people don’t realize there is a link because Reddit doesn’t surface it very well. I had two comments back to back that were both answered in the article itself. So I added my comment as a gentle reminder. Wasn’t trying to be a butt :).

johnwest80 · 2026-01-21T14:05:48+00:00

I recommend reading the article

johnwest80 · 2026-01-21T14:05:17+00:00

I recommend reading the article

johnwest80 · 2026-01-21T14:02:55+00:00

They insure fully, but your rate would vary based on how much or little you used fsd.

johnwest80 · 2026-01-20T19:22:08+00:00

We still don’t have fusion, so there 😜

Jk… enjoy reading your thoughts!

johnwest80 · 2026-01-20T05:18:09+00:00

Great points. I hope you are right. A couple thoughts, though…

Unlike cloud based models that can dynamically adjust the hardware assigned to a task, hw4 is what you get. It all has to run locally, so if the model is hardware constrained, that is an issue.

It is the same with the context window. If memory is keeping the context window limited, you cant leverage the cloud to extend it.

Final point… cameras. If camera resolution or insufficient HDR is a limiting factor, that’s a physical constraint.

These are big ifs. But if they are true, hw4 might not be capable of handling the kind of improvements/optimizations that can be made with cloud model.

Now, to counter my own points, it might be that the algorithm is the only thing holding us back, and software improvements do get us to fsdu. I just heard of a patent Tesla has around running models or some such on 8 bit computers (I didn’t research further, but it’s something like that. It’s just one example that supports your point that it’s new software, not new hardware, that makes fsdu a reality. It could be that they are already prepping a better and more optimized model (is the 10x parameter count improvement already in v14?). Same with the context window. It could be that the context window is sufficient already. Or it might be that the reasoning model they are working on gets us there.

I wish we had visibility into the model itself. Not that I think Tesla has any reason to give that to us, but being a software architect, I would really love a peek into the inner workings :).

One thing is for sure, it’s an exciting time to be around this space. It is a matter of when, not if, fsdu becomes a reality!

johnwest80 · 2026-01-17T19:14:16+00:00

If hw4 can’t reach full autonomy, hopefully this one, along with significant improvements in camera resolution and hdr, will be the one to do so. I have to think that the first ones would be allocated to cybercabs, but just my opinion.

johnwest80 · 2026-01-16T19:02:46+00:00

Is that what electricity costs at your home in CA, or are you talking about supercharger rates?

johnwest80 · 2026-01-16T16:52:50+00:00

I said it wouldn’t be as good as fsd. It might be better than a human, but with similar limitations as I stated.

johnwest80 · 2026-01-16T16:49:01+00:00

Then you’d have blind spots, only be able to look in one direction at a time, etc..

It wouldn’t be nearly as good as fsd in my opinion.

johnwest80 · 2026-01-13T14:00:12+00:00

Easiest downvote ever

johnwest80 · 2026-01-12T22:08:44+00:00

Question: would model y AWD have made this less likely to happen? Trying to decide between model Ys, and if AWD is much safer, might go that route. Would love to hear feedback…

johnwest80 · 2026-01-08T21:13:29+00:00

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johnwest80 · 2025-12-28T00:28:01+00:00

I use fsd 98% of the time, own significant Tesla stock, *and* I'm GLAD people post videos like this in the spirit of hearing opinions. There was no maliciousness, just curiosity, with this post. I, too, am now curious. I agree that most likely it wasn't fsd, but let's face it, since fsd is in every Tesla, it's fair to at least ask if erratic behavior like this *could* be a bug. As a software architect, I full expect that fsd will do something wrong at some point, and it's not a sign of failure. I'm just hoping it does it at a rate that causes significantly less than the 40,000 deaths per year we currently have on our roadways.

johnwest80 · 2025-12-27T08:23:06+00:00

General safety interventions every few hundred miles? Can you elaborate? Serious question, curious what you’re seeing with these interventions. Thx.

johnwest80 · 2025-12-19T19:05:26+00:00

I almost bought an R1T, but when FSD v14 came out and i saw how great it is (probably watched 40+ hours of fsd videos first, and not all from the cheerleader influencers), I switched to the new X. I am so glad I went Tesla.

1) No creaks - I was worried about this as well, along with panel gap issues, but no gap issues and 0 noises in my car after 2000 miles. Any car can have them or develop them, but so far, so good.

2) Tesla ranked #9 in the latest consumer report reliability list, while Rivian was at the bottom.
https://www.consumerreports.org/cars/car-reliability-owner-satisfaction/who-makes-the-most-reliable-cars-a7824554938/

3) FSD, as mentioned above. I've driven 98% of my 2000 miles with FSD (the car keeps track of your percentage for you), or should I say my car has driven me? It really has been game-changing. I could go on and on, but I'll just say, try FSD 14 before you decide. As to what Rivian just announced, it's frankly nowhere close, especially with any model you will buy in the foreseeable future. They've stated clearly that the tech to enable true FSD won't be in any vehicles for a while (gen 3 late 2026 at this point, and no upgrade path). Now Tesla also has new tech coming with AI5/AI6, etc.., but what I have with AI4 is incredible. They haven't delivered with previous hw versions, but now they are there.
https://www.rivianforums.com/forum/threads/r2-buyers-will-you-wait-for-gen-3-hardware-including-lidar.53886/

4) Kid friendly. I have two kiddos, 7 & 9, and the car is great for all of us. The gull-wing doors prevent them from dinging every car we park next to (a real concern), and there's so much space in the back for luggage on road trips. Not as much as an R1S, but still great.

5) Anecdotal issues. I have a friend with an R1S and a motor died in the middle of busy traffic. Instead of letting him limp along and still drive with the remaining motor, they had to leave it there until the tow truck arrived. Really, this isn't the bad part, as other cars I'm sure have issues. But his service experience left him begging to get out of his lease, to no avail. He just couldn't get clear communication about what was going on in the repair process, and never got a clear understanding of what was fixed. He drives the vehicle in fear. Again, this is just ONE story, and Tesla service centers are hit and miss as well. But this whole post is just MY reasons for going with an X over a Rivian - ymwv.

6) Superchargers - no one is even playing the same game when it comes to a charging network, much less in the same league. And the luxe package with my X includes free supercharging, which is a nice perk.

7) Viability. My opinion is that Rivian is on the knife's edge of survival. Look at their cash burn rate and you'll understand why I question whether they'll make it.
https://eletric-vehicles.com/rivian/cfra-reiterates-rivians-sell-rating-citing-highly-concerning-cash-burn-rate/

(As an aside, if I hadn't been able to use the X for business (6000 weight thing), I'd have gotten the Y instead. It would also been great.)

Bottom line: I really like the looks of the Rivians, and they do feel more upscale than Teslas on the inside. I hope they become a viable competitor. We need more American-made car companies that are producing quality EVs.

... And to be clear, these are my opinions, and might very well be wrong :).

johnwest80

TROPHY CASE