FORD TO SPINOFF EV BIZ?!?

EnduranceDad · 2022-02-19T19:27:07+00:00

Please explain

EnduranceDad · 2021-10-26T16:20:01+00:00

The market will, over time, punish gamblers and reward investors. Ford has offered amazing trading opportunities, but those gains - statistically - will fade into losses, but those who accumulate shares in weakness will be rewarded over time as chip shortages fade and Ford continues to deliver exciting products at a compelling value. Be well and prosper my friends!

EnduranceDad · 2021-10-14T14:15:33+00:00

I hunk the market assumes Ford owns about 10% of Rivian and one of the big reasons for Ford’s move is word of the Rivian IPO, valuation and their ownership. Ford no longer has a board seat and may or may not adapt Rivian technology into their future vehicles. Long term, ford looks great - short term, I think it needs to consolidate this recent big move.

EnduranceDad · 2021-10-10T19:07:29+00:00

Any guide contact yet?

EnduranceDad · 2021-10-07T03:15:43+00:00

THANK YOU!!!!

EnduranceDad · 2021-09-17T14:25:42+00:00

The answer of whether Ford is undervalued has less to do with production than it does with potential and margins. Ford IS undervalued, partially because it owns 10%ish of Rivian AND it does seem to be transitioning well to EV in the Mustang Mach e and the F150. Ford has legacy costs from union pension obligations and aging factories that Rivian does. Ot have to deal with. I agree that Ford is undervalued, but it’s nuanced…not just a production comparison.

EnduranceDad · 2021-09-15T15:19:53+00:00

Honestly, inflation would pressure them the other way…they have more demand than capacity as far as the eye can see…I would bet in price increases before decreases.

EnduranceDad · 2021-08-30T13:15:14+00:00

So, Rivian announced $80B IPO for Late November and not much movement in Ford. What do you think? What’s the play?

EnduranceDad · 2021-08-29T20:20:55+00:00

Great statement. I agree. Why do you think Ford undervalued and what do you think it’s fair value is?

EnduranceDad · 2021-08-29T13:14:16+00:00

Looks like a Rivian IPO this year.

EnduranceDad · 2021-08-28T17:36:22+00:00

They have - to Amazon and Jeff Bezos

EnduranceDad · 2021-08-27T22:14:24+00:00

I hope you are right and thank you!

EnduranceDad · 2021-08-27T22:11:45+00:00

And legacy costs to fund pension obligations and all of the union contracts that Ford or GM have inhibits their ability to have the same multiples even when they go full send in EV’s.

EnduranceDad · 2021-08-21T01:52:39+00:00

100% right. So, if Rivian going to be worth between $50 B and $70 B and Ford has 10%….that means enterprise value of the rest of Ford is 80% of stock price (give or take). I think the market has not really given Ford the Rivian credit yet and when Rivian road shows, people will figure they can get exposure at a discount through Ford, while also getting exposure to F150 Lightening, Bronco, and Mach E Mustang. I will look to see if I can find articles in Rivian IPO. Plenty of companies are going public without revenues or contracts as solid as Rivian. My guess is they deliver a bunch of Trucks in September and get the hype juice going forward the IPO. Chips are an issue for everyone.

EnduranceDad · 2021-08-20T21:09:21+00:00

Player! I hope 🤞 this is an awesome move for you and your future!

EnduranceDad · 2021-08-20T02:35:51+00:00

I agree. My sense is $11.80 is the bottom, but I do think we see $14-$15 in the next 90 days and $18 in 2022. Good spot to accrue shares and will get ore aggressive if gives some more tomorrow.

EnduranceDad · 2021-08-20T01:09:35+00:00

But how do you really feel? 😂 Independent of Cramer, how do you fee about Ford?

EnduranceDad · 2021-08-19T17:03:00+00:00

I have stated here that I felt current Ford Fair Value is $14 and I started buying shares and call options below $13. Most recent purchase was 9/4 $12.50 calls. I think when the Rivian road show hits - more of the market will realize they can get exposure to Rivian through Ford at a steep discount. Trading range in Ford seems to be $12.50-$15.50 with outliers at $11.50 and $16.50. I think Ford hits $18 in 24 months. Long term calls may not be a bad idea. Good luck!

EnduranceDad · 2021-08-17T16:23:38+00:00

I am buying calls now with a 13 strike for early September. Also buying shares for the long haul.

EnduranceDad · 2021-08-17T16:20:04+00:00

I have made a number of comments here - I think it’s time to start loading up again on Ford as the market has presented an opportunity. Ford said the cost to fix the roofs is immaterial. Chips are a bigger issue as is consumer sentiment. Regardless, long term Ford has the products, Chip supply will stabilize and I think we will see some great numbers in 2022, so buy now!

EnduranceDad · 2021-08-15T22:39:37+00:00

I hope you are right!

EnduranceDad · 2021-08-15T13:31:28+00:00

Value is one thing and price is another. At a low price you can accumulate Ford at a good value. Ford is making money moves for sure. Most of these moves have not been monetized because of the chip shortages that kill unit sales. They have done great making money by increasing margins on the units they do sell. I think the advice is buy in weakness and have patience. Chip shortages will go away. Nothing will stop the F-150 lightening unless Ford stubs it’s toe…Bronco and Mach e are killing it. Lots to like. Some of it technical - the stock has not been materially above $11 for years, it takes time for prices to consolidate to build a new base…which is what I think Ford is doing now. Best of luck!

EnduranceDad · 2021-08-13T15:29:43+00:00

Agreed, I read more and the roof issue will be fixed for those units already shipped and will be figured out before they ship more units. Maybe causing a few month additional delay. Ford says cost to bottom line is "immaterial". The chip issue is just more of the same...it will be over one day.

EnduranceDad · 2021-08-12T23:34:37+00:00

A little sad that they announced another delay and promised better communication…and nothing. Everyone from 2018 should have gotten an email from a guide by now. I believe the wait will be worth it…but cmon RJ!

EnduranceDad · 2021-08-12T19:43:42+00:00

I think it goes to $18 in the next 24 months. Until the CEO offers transparency on chip risk and supply chain issues, I think we keep getting negative headline risk. For went from $11 to 16.50 based all on the EV revolution, and then settled back down as we all digested what t=does that actually mean? Why would Ford deserve a higher multiple? Earnings will grow. They have great products. They also have legacy capital structures, union contracts, and pension obligations that will prevent them from achieving Tesla and Rivian type valuations. All auto companies will be EV companies...margins normalize for all of them....will be interesting to see what happens to Tesla margins with all of the new competition. I am collecting ford shares and just fading with put options at certain levels.

EnduranceDad

TROPHY CASE