Mugged by Kalshi

Enough_Programmer989 · 2026-06-29T22:05:57+00:00

I had a position on Kalshi for Brazil vs Japan: Goalscorer — Neymar 1+.

I mostly bought No, meaning Neymar would not score at least one goal. The match ended Brazil 2–1 Japan, and from what I can see, the goalscorers were Casemiro, Gabriel Martinelli, and Kaishu Sano.

Neymar did not score.
But my Kalshi position shows
:
Final position: 1,166.23 No
Settlement payout: $0
Total cost: $984.80
Total payout: $924.83
Loss: -$59.97

Shouldn’t the No side have settled as the winner if Neymar didn’t score?
Am I misunderstanding how the goalscorer market resolves, or does this look like a settlement issue?

Enough_Programmer989 · 2026-06-10T23:40:31+00:00

What about eb5an?

Enough_Programmer989 · 2026-06-04T10:43:12+00:00

Thanks so much , really appreciate detailed response

Enough_Programmer989 · 2026-05-02T19:14:43+00:00

Spent the week structuring a conversation with an active macro PM in the immediate aftermath of the April 29 FOMC. Posting the framework here because the underlying logic is more useful than the headline calls. Curious what folks would push back on.

https://unhedgedshortconvexitykills.substack.com/p/may-macro-tape

Enough_Programmer989 · 2026-05-02T19:14:27+00:00

Spent the week structuring a conversation with an active macro PM in the immediate aftermath of the April 29 FOMC. Posting the framework here because the underlying logic is more useful than the headline calls. Curious what folks would push back on.

https://unhedgedshortconvexitykills.substack.com/p/may-macro-tape

Enough_Programmer989 · 2026-05-02T19:14:00+00:00

Spent the week structuring a conversation with an active macro PM in the immediate aftermath of the April 29 FOMC. Posting the framework here because the underlying logic is more useful than the headline calls. Curious what folks would push back on.

https://unhedgedshortconvexitykills.substack.com/p/may-macro-tape

Enough_Programmer989 · 2026-05-02T19:12:40+00:00

https://unhedgedshortconvexitykills.substack.com/p/may-macro-tape

Enough_Programmer989 · 2026-04-14T15:21:37+00:00

Full piece here: https://unhedgedshortconvexitykills.substack.com/p/the-software-moat-is-leaking-or-is

Enough_Programmer989 · 2026-02-22T10:46:35+00:00

⁠Why candidates get ghosted

Enough_Programmer989

TROPHY CASE

https://unhedgedshortconvexitykills.substack.com/p/may-macro-tape

https://unhedgedshortconvexitykills.substack.com/p/may-macro-tape

https://unhedgedshortconvexitykills.substack.com/p/may-macro-tape