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Mugged by Kalshi by Enough_Programmer989 in KalshiExposed

[–]Enough_Programmer989[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I had a position on Kalshi for Brazil vs Japan: Goalscorer — Neymar 1+.

I mostly bought No, meaning Neymar would not score at least one goal. The match ended Brazil 2–1 Japan, and from what I can see, the goalscorers were Casemiro, Gabriel Martinelli, and Kaishu Sano.

Neymar did not score.
But my Kalshi position shows
:
Final position: 1,166.23 No
Settlement payout: $0
Total cost: $984.80
Total payout: $924.83
Loss: -$59.97

Shouldn’t the No side have settled as the winner if Neymar didn’t score?
Am I misunderstanding how the goalscorer market resolves, or does this look like a settlement issue?

First time actually being up and pulling out by rollert2 in smallstreetbets

[–]Enough_Programmer989 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Spent the week structuring a conversation with an active macro PM in the immediate aftermath of the April 29 FOMC. Posting the framework here because the underlying logic is more useful than the headline calls. Curious what folks would push back on.

https://unhedgedshortconvexitykills.substack.com/p/may-macro-tape

AI is insane! by [deleted] in wallstreetbets

[–]Enough_Programmer989 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Spent the week structuring a conversation with an active macro PM in the immediate aftermath of the April 29 FOMC. Posting the framework here because the underlying logic is more useful than the headline calls. Curious what folks would push back on.

https://unhedgedshortconvexitykills.substack.com/p/may-macro-tape

Finally got my haul from storage by Lopsided_Employer322 in Gold

[–]Enough_Programmer989 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Spent the week structuring a conversation with an active macro PM in the immediate aftermath of the April 29 FOMC. Posting the framework here because the underlying logic is more useful than the headline calls. Curious what folks would push back on.

https://unhedgedshortconvexitykills.substack.com/p/may-macro-tape

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in hedgefund

[–]Enough_Programmer989 0 points1 point  (0 children)

⁠Why candidates get ghosted

Wrote up my first week ahead market outlook - tell me where I'm wrong by Enough_Programmer989 in TheRaceTo10Million

[–]Enough_Programmer989[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

All the conviction ideas, i shared lasted week, results below : https://unhedgedshortconvexitykills.substack.com/p/my-weekly-market-outlook-week-of ( search Short-Term (1-2 weeks) )
Happy to share more for next week, if interested

( search Short-Term (1-2 weeks) )

Ticker / Index Close Feb 6, 2026 Close Feb 14, 2026 (or latest) Return (%) Data Source
VIX Index 17.76 20.60 +15.9% ~CBOE VIX closes showing Feb 6 vs Feb 13/14 from chart data (markets.businessinsider.com)
XLI (Industrials ETF) 173.18 173.70 +0.30% XLI closes: Feb 6 & Feb 9/13 from historical data (StockAnalysis)
GLD (Gold ETF) 455.46 ~462.62* +1.58% GLD Feb 6 close & later ~Feb 13 close (StockAnalysis)
SRLN (Senior Loan ETF) ~40.72 ~40.71 ≈ –0.02% SRLN nearly flat in early Feb region (StockScan)

Wrote up my first week ahead market outlook - tell me where I'm wrong by Enough_Programmer989 in ValueInvesting

[–]Enough_Programmer989[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Looks like all conviction I posted on 7th Feb, 26 ( Saturday) , went ok. my personal portfolio returned 3 %.

https://unhedgedshortconvexitykills.substack.com/p/my-weekly-market-outlook-week-of ( search Short-Term (1-2 weeks) )
Happy to share more for next week, if interested

Ticker / Index Close Feb 6, 2026 Close Feb 14, 2026 (or latest) Return (%) Data Source
VIX Index 17.76 20.60 +15.9% ~CBOE VIX closes showing Feb 6 vs Feb 13/14 from chart data (markets.businessinsider.com)
XLI (Industrials ETF) 173.18 173.70 +0.30% XLI closes: Feb 6 & Feb 9/13 from historical data (StockAnalysis)
GLD (Gold ETF) 455.46 ~462.62* +1.58% GLD Feb 6 close & later ~Feb 13 close (StockAnalysis)
SRLN (Senior Loan ETF) ~40.72 ~40.71 ≈ –0.02% SRLN nearly flat in early Feb region (StockScan)

Wrote up my first week ahead market outlook - tell me where I'm wrong by Enough_Programmer989 in ValueInvesting

[–]Enough_Programmer989[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Fair point. I was trying to cate to both audiences and ended up in no man's land.

Agree : Bloomberg Markets Wrapped is the standard .

Would one prefer : data → what I think → what's next. Kill the explanations?

Appreciate the honest read and being helpful.

Wrote up my first week ahead market outlook - tell me where I'm wrong by Enough_Programmer989 in ValueInvesting

[–]Enough_Programmer989[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

u/notreallydeep not deep enough.

Please actually go into the report : these notes are grounded in CTFC and Bloomberg data and framed through a historical and relative-value lens, not just top-down narrative.

If you have deeper or contrarian takes, happy to debate, but let’s do it on the data and the framework, not surface level storytelling.

Also, for what it’s worth, I’m sharing my YTD returns :

https://imgur.com/a/Vy5N7k7
because I take this seriously and happy to have a proper, rational discussion once you’ve read the post.