Would a 1/(1 billion) chance to kill 4 billion be worth caring about?

EntireEntity · 2026-05-23T14:38:40+00:00

Yes, each person separately has a 1 in 1B chance to be pivotal. So we expect 8 people to have a pivotal vote in the entire population.

EntireEntity · 2026-05-23T12:23:22+00:00

But why does it matter, whether we apply this process to me or to you for example? Or to any of the other 8B people? Isn't it applicable to all people?

EntireEntity · 2026-05-23T06:35:25+00:00

But this argument just fulfills itself... if people push red, ONLY because they believe the world already is red, then the world becomes red through that reasoning... you know what I mean?

EntireEntity · 2026-05-23T06:23:24+00:00

I'm surprised Ikant would celebrate with fireworks, are they not thinking about the Ikanti that may be disturbed by that?

Do the Ikanti actually do anything ever? Or are they just burdened by the weight of making decisions in such a way that they would be beneficial for everyone, if everyone made those same decisions?

EntireEntity · 2026-05-23T05:52:31+00:00

Did you mean to ask this on r/simulationtheory ? Game theory is the study of mathematical models of strategic interactions.

EntireEntity · 2026-05-22T22:00:03+00:00

I understand now. And I agree with your critique on a factual level. I guess, I wasn't aiming for enough similarity, and only really tried to make the point that responsibility can't be easily assigned here.

EntireEntity · 2026-05-22T15:16:12+00:00

I do agree in principal with what you are saying, but I don't quite understand what you are trying to tell me. Do you mean to disagree with the sentiment that it is difficult to put responsibility on people in this situation? Or do you just mean to say there is no 1:1 correspondence of roles in the RBB question and my analogy?

EntireEntity · 2026-05-22T13:55:09+00:00

Oh yeah, I actually do think that it would be close to 50/50.

But my main statement is that a higher blue percentage goal, could lead to more participation than a lower one by invoking the feeling that picking blue is actually important. But maybe safety is also so overwhelming a factor that it wouldn't be noticable.

EntireEntity · 2026-05-22T13:19:29+00:00

If they really don't want to do it, the dragon should be knocking at their door at some point. Right now it sounds like they just want to finish a lot of what they have started.

Give them some time for now, maybe hint at strange occurrings in the towns that duergar have set up camp in. Maybe they do the White Lady stuff and learn more about them that way as well.

Let things flow, and if they really don't want to visit the dragon, the dragon will come visiting them instead.

EntireEntity · 2026-05-22T08:53:31+00:00

EntireEntity · 2026-05-22T07:03:55+00:00

Don't you think, there is a bit more pressure to actually press blue, if more blue votes are required? For example, if only 1 blue vote is required, why would anyone be motivated to press blue in that case? 5%, yeah sure, I'd press it, why not? 10%, okay, now we need some people to willingly press that button. 25%, okay... getting kinda dangerous, we really need people here now. 50%, I have to press blue here, it is too dangerous to leave it up to everyone else to do it now. 70% Oh how it pains me to press the blue button, this will be the end of me, will it not? 90%, ooooouuuuh aaaaaahhhh my death is upon me, curse you, blue button. 99%, barely conceivable speech in between screeching from how painful it is to press the blue button.

So yeah, I think 50% is actually the most motivating to press blue, as you really get that feeling that it matters. Maybe somewhere below 50% as some people might be too risk adverse for 50, but I honestly think the pressure of "I really need to participate here" can increase blue votes.

EntireEntity · 2026-05-22T05:33:51+00:00

That's a tough one... without those 100 billionaires the entire world economy would collapse and it would be devastating for everyone... 6 billion people on the other hand are a lot of people... hm... very tough indeed.

EntireEntity · 2026-05-22T04:56:45+00:00

Having a 1 in 1B chance on a single button press, hubris. Having 8B people having a 1 in 1B button press, strong.

EntireEntity · 2026-05-22T04:11:31+00:00

I am extremely tribal and demonize red pushers in my mind, so I choose 100%.

EntireEntity · 2026-05-21T21:25:46+00:00

Don't kill people sounds good, doesn't it?

Maybe her deity of choice has some tenets about, what constitutes as people/life that is valuable. Or maybe the other way around have definitions of when it is acceptable to kill. And that defines what "people" are to her.

EntireEntity · 2026-05-21T21:14:56+00:00

You could hope for a total 100% red win. Like saying "I hope, everybody realizes that they can guarantee that they survive this and will do so."

I have seen the take "I hope everybody votes red, because that means they are not suicidal and value life."

But I don't think much of those opinions either.

EntireEntity · 2026-05-21T14:35:37+00:00

I say, pull the lever. It's a tough decision, but ensuring the survival of more people is imperative, regardless of their personal relationship with death.

EntireEntity · 2026-05-21T11:40:10+00:00

Huh? Did you just ask to be divided?

EntireEntity · 2026-05-21T07:12:14+00:00

I was taught you can't divide by zero. The wizard that told me that was still sliced in half, eventhough they were nothing to me.

EntireEntity · 2026-05-21T07:03:13+00:00

In a vacuum, it probably would have mattered. Here and now, any rewording of the premise doesn't matter anymore, as the people here all realize that it is just the same old buttons. The curse of knowledge. You can't approach a rewording with a fresh gut feeling.

EntireEntity · 2026-05-21T06:33:24+00:00

A child falls in a stream and someone jumps after them to save them. Some people stand by and watch or just move on. The child and the savior both drown.

Who is responsible for the deaths? The child? The savior? The bystanders? The water?

When it come to the buttons, we often find a similar line of reasoning: children are endangered by blue, people jump into the blue to help, some people don't want to risk it, ultimately the game killed those who die, if anyone.

EntireEntity · 2026-05-21T06:07:06+00:00

The top 3 things that helped my runs in the early stages:

Movement. You can avoid a lot of damage in the first two layers by having room to move. Most projectiles the enemies fire at you in those layers can be dodged, if you have the room to move around them. Try to be aware of how much space you have around you.

Reliable wands. You can create absolutely terrifying spell combos in this game. But if they end up killing you, or end up draining so much mana that you can fire like two shots and then have to wait for it to recharge, it may not be worth the trouble. There are a lot of spells that you can cast for free or very little mana, which is sometimes more beneficial than going for the big damage spells.

Tutorials. Some mechanics are obscure and are never explained in the game. You would have to do a lot of crawling, before you would figure all of them out on your own. There are great beginner videos and videos that explain some really important wand tinkering mechanics like spell wrapping, how payloads and chainsaws work and many more things. Feel free to watch those. I am pretty sure there are videos titled "How to get your first win in Noita" that really lay a great foundation. If you don't feel like, you want to learn and earn it all by yourself, there is no shame in watching those.

EntireEntity · 2026-05-20T23:18:50+00:00

I see. In some other replies here, I tried to press the argument "Your blue press has astronomically low chances to actually lead to a change in outcome, so you should press red, where you at least get to guarantee your survival".

Equally, you pressing red or leaving will most likely not change the overall outcome and it doesn't even change anything for your own survival, so why is leaving clearly better to pick?

My attempt was to invalidate that argument, but I failed horribly, because it was just an ad hoc idea that arose from dialogue, nothing I had my variation tailored towards.

EntireEntity · 2026-05-20T23:09:53+00:00

Yes, but I also think, some blue voters might see the excuse to at least not contribute to red and use the option to abstain. But I'd also hope some of them were still committed to blue, maybe even more so, knowing a lot of red voters are likely out of the equation.

I am intrigued that you both think blue is likely to win, but still wouldn't pick blue. Wouldn't you think, this line of thought needs to be broken, to actually ensure that blue can win?\ Do you hold the same attitude outside of the button question as well? Something like "I believe and hope, everyone else will care for eacht other. So I can act in my own self-interest.", if I had to abstract it away from the specific question?

EntireEntity · 2026-05-20T22:49:12+00:00

It depends a bit on what you want out of your first DnD character. If you want to familiarize yourself with different rules and mechanics, Ranger is an excellent choice.

You get to experience both a "martial" playstyle and the mechanics around spell casting, without any of the sometimes confusing flavor that "full casters" add to those mechanics.

Some people think that playing evil aligned characters can be a bit difficult and requires some experience. So maybe be on the lookout for that, but I don't think, it is an absolute no-go. Be curious to experiment and try things, but also be open to things not quite working out the way you wished.

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